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Has Trump's Republican Party Become a Criminal Enterprise?

18 May 2026 at 10:02

Friends,

On Saturday, Trump took revenge on Louisiana senator Bill Cassidy for Cassidy’s vote five years ago to convict Trump, in his second impeachment, for instigating an attack on the U.S. Capitol.

Cassidy thereby became the first GOP senator defeated by a Trump-endorsed candidate in a Republican primary. (Other Republican senators who have stood up to Trump — such as North Carolina’s Thom Tillis and Utah’s Mitt Romney — saw the writing on the wall and didn’t seek reelection.)

Trump’s purge of Cassidy comes in the wake of Trump’s purges of House Republicans who stood up to him, such as Wyoming’s Liz Cheney.

Trump’s next Republican target in the House is Kentucky representative Thomas Massie, who had the guts to oppose U.S. military involvement in Iran, demand release of the Epstein files, and criticize Trump’s spending bills for adding to the national debt. Massie appears likely to be defeated by a Trump-backed opponent in Tuesday’s Kentucky primary.

Trump is marshaling the full force of his MAGA machine — spending more than $30 million on a House Republican primary — to purge another of his political enemies from the Republican House. Even Secretary of “War” Pete Hegseth is flying to Kentucky today to campaign for Massie’s challenger. It’s all seen as an investment in intimidating and disciplining Republican office-holders who might otherwise think of straying.

Trump has also purged state legislators who have refused to do his bidding, such as the seven Indiana Republicans who refused to redistrict the state as Trump demanded they do, and who Trump insured were defeated in their recent primaries.

The message is clear to every current or aspiring Republican politician: Be a toady to Trump, or you’re out.

In his concession speech Friday night, Cassidy stated the obvious reference to Trump:

“Our country is not about one individual. It is about the welfare of all Americans, and it is about our Constitution. And if someone doesn’t understand that and attempts to control others through using the levers of power, they’re about serving themselves. They’re not about serving us. And that person is not qualified to be a leader.”

Nicely put but sadly irrelevant because Trump — who’s clearly serving himself rather than the American public — now possesses all levers of power in the official Republican Party.

As Republican senator Lindsey Graham said yesterday on Meet the Press, “There’s no room in this party to destroy [Trump’s] agenda.”

Former generations of Republican politicians had principles, beliefs, ideals. They thought the federal government too large. Or believed it spent too much money. Or was too lenient on criminals. Or was too eager to support the civil rights of Black people. Or any number of issues with which Democrats disagreed.

Today’s Republican Party no longer has any purpose other than achieving whatever Trump wants, which is mainly to make Trump richer and more powerful. The GOP is now Trump’s; it is no longer America’s.

Today’s Republican voters, by contrast, are showing increasing frustration with Trump. Those who think of themselves as traditional Republicans don’t like Trump’s expansive use of federal power. Those who are fiscally conservative, like Thomas Massie, are upset by Trump’s wanton spending, tax cuts, and soaring debt. “America-first” Republican voters are concerned about Trump’s intrusions into Iran, Venezuela, Cuba, and elsewhere. And they want the rest of the Epstein files released.

Yet for elected Republicans, survival now depends on personal loyalty to Trump.

All of which raises a fundamental question: Has the official Republican Party — now nearly purged of anyone willing to reflect the concerns of Republican voters rather than Trump’s will — become complicit in Trump’s criminality? Is it aiding and abetting Trump’s lawlessness?

A case can be made that the official Republican Party is indeed complicit.

For Trump, the first and most basic sign of loyalty to him — and therefore survival as a politician in Trump’s Republican Party — is a willingness to publicly proclaim as truth what we know to be two big lies: that Trump won the 2020 election, and that he did not seek to overturn its results by illegal means. As a result, almost all congressional Republicans are now election deniers.

Trump has also made it clear that loyalty to him bars any criticism of his unlawful immigration dragnet, which has so far resulted in the murders of three U.S. citizens by ICE agents and the detention and deportation, without a hearing, of people suspected of being in the U.S. illegally.

To Trump, loyalty requires full support of his foreign policy — including the abduction of a foreign leader, an undeclared war with Iran, and the killing on the high seas of people only suspected of smuggling drugs, in violation of international law.

Loyalty also demands unquestioned support for other of his lawless acts — using the Justice Department to prosecute his political opponents, building a mammoth White House ballroom, issuing no-bid contracts to his friends, promoting his family’s businesses and implementing policies favorable to them, accepting gifts from foreign powers, and defying court orders.

Is it fair to conclude from all of this that today’s official Republican Party — the people who are in office because Trump has put them there, or who maintain their office because they back whatever Trump wants — has in effect become a criminal organization, analogous to the mafia or a drug cartel, whose members are blindly loyal to their criminal bosses?

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Sunday caption contest: The Show

17 May 2026 at 23:01

Friends,

Please submit your caption in the Comments section and, as before, please use the Comments section only for captions.

Winners will be announced next Sunday. For consideration, please post your caption by Monday at 9 pm PT, 12 midnight ET.

Leave a comment

Last week’s winner:

“Oh, we still believe in diversity. We stick minorities in diverse congressional districts.”

(Congratulations, Steven Horowitz.)

Runners-up:

“If we add 3 here, subtract 7, carry the 5, divide by party loyalty, that should equal 1950’s America.”

(Congratulations, Adam Laurie.)

“Ladies and gentleman, I give you the real swamp creature, the gerrymander.”

(Congratulations, Jeff Schwartz.)

“The Court has ruled: The right to vote is sacred; the right for that vote to matter is optional.”

(Congratulations, John F. M. O’Sullivan O’Shea.)

“Remember kids, racism is over. Over here and over there.”

(Congratulations, David A Pitock.)

“Welcome to Rigging an Election 101.”

(Congratulations, Carol Nylen.)

“Ensuring the white to vote.”

(Congratulations, Andrea Wolper.)

The only minority we allow to vote is the Wealthy Epstein class.”

(Congratulations, Laurie Blair.)

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Sunday thought: America's Madman-in-Chief

17 May 2026 at 10:03

Friends,

My first quote of the week comes from Trump on Air Force One, on his way back from Beijing on Friday — telling David Sanger of The New York Times:

“I had a total military victory. But the fake news, guys like you, write incorrectly. You’re a fake guy. We had a total military victory. I actually think it’s sort of treasonous what you write. You should be ashamed of yourself. I actually think it’s treason.”

Note Trump’s use of the pronoun “I.” He didn’t say “we” had a military victory. Trump’s malignant narcissism is worsening.

Also take note of his blatant lie. His war in Iran has been anything but a victory. His delusions and deceptions about the war are escalating.

Americans are far worse off today than we were before Trump started his war. We’re now paying $1.50 a gallon more for gas, on average. Paying even more, indirectly, for the diesel fuel powering trucks that transport much of what we buy. Food costs are also rising because the fertilizer used to grow much of the food we eat can’t move through the Strait of Hormuz. The soaring cost of jet fuel is also being passed on to those of us who fly.

And none of these costs will come down soon, even if the war ends tomorrow, because the price for oil is largely set in a global market, and much of the oil infrastructure of the Middle East is in ruins.

Trump has made it harder for us to switch from oil and gas to renewable sources of energy, in which China is excelling. Trump loves fossil fuels — he’s subsidizing oil and gas and has ended subsidies for renewables (remember his election deal with Big Oil?) — but the future lies with wind, solar, and biomass, and the batteries that store them.

And note the not-so-subtle threat Trump directed at Sanger — that Sanger could be accused of treason if he continued to report that Trump’s war is failing. Trump’s dangerous accusations are intensifying.

Which brings me to my other quote of the week — Trump’s comment just before leaving for China that:

“I don’t think about Americans’ financial situation. I don’t think about anybody. I think about one thing: We cannot let Iran have a nuclear weapon. That’s all. That’s the only thing that motivates me.”

I believe the first part, that Trump doesn’t think about Americans’ financial situation; he never has and never will. But it can’t possibly be that the only thing motivating him is preventing Iran from having a nuclear weapon.

I say this because we were much closer to achieving this goal when Iran was still observing the nuclear deal it struck with Barack Obama — in which Iran agreed to limit its nuclear activities, including reducing its enriched uranium stockpile and modifying reactors to prevent the production of weapons-grade plutonium. (In exchange, the United States, United Nations, and European Union agreed to lift international economic and financial sanctions on Iran.)

But Trump pulled out of that deal. And Iran’s new leadership is hellbent on creating a nuclear weapon. Trump’s and Israel’s aggression apparently have proven to Iran’s new (and more extremist) leaders how much they need it. And the Trump regime has no idea where Iran is storing its near-weapons-grade plutonium.

Friends, a madman is in charge of American foreign policy — but almost no Republican member of Congress, no major CEO or university president or head of a major foundation, and certainly no member of Trump’s regime is willing to sound the alarm. They are all cowards.

I mentioned to you earlier this week that I had dinner with a group of political operatives who gave 30 percent odds that JD Vance and Marco Rubio would lead a coup within the next three to four months, invoking the 25th Amendment to get rid of the madman. Those odds may be higher now.

But you and I are not powerless. We can achieve the next best outcome — limiting Trump’s power to do more damage — by getting out the vote on or before November 3 and throwing the cowardly Republican senators and representatives out on their assets.

We have less than six months to get the largest midterm turnout in American history — a blue tsunami that will start the process of repair, reform, and return to sanity.

I know how frightening and discouraging all of this has been. I know how daunting the forces of cruelty and corruption can sometimes feel. I also know how hard you’ve been fighting, while at the same time working to keep yourself, your family, and your community on an even keel. And I thank you for it.

Despite Trump, please do not feel shame in America. Feel pride in the ideals we share. Feel honored that you are an activist warrior on the right side of history. Feel strength in our conviction. Feel power in our cause.

Have no doubt: We will prevail against the madman-in-chief and his lawless regime.

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Bullsh*t in the China Shop | The Coffee Klatch for Saturday, May 16, 2026

16 May 2026 at 10:02

Friends,

To say Trump’s trip to China was underwhelming is to give it even more credit than it deserves. In fact, Trump’s main purpose for making the trip probably wasn’t to accomplish anything important but to deflect attention, even for a few days, from his failing war in Iran (the strait is still closed, and Iran is more determined than ever to build a nuclear bomb) and his failing economy (the closure of the strait continues to push up gas prices in the U.S. to near record levels).

Today, Heather and I take a hard look at these three items — Trump’s China visit, his war in Iran, and the U.S. economy — and put them in the context of the 2026 midterm elections. We also discuss Kevin Warsh’s Fed and the unlikelihood it will cut interest rates any time soon. And we examine the rampant, unprecedented corruption of the Trump regime.

Please pull up a chair, grab a cuppa, and join the conversation.

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💾

Take My Classroom Home

15 May 2026 at 23:01

Dear Friends,

Many of you keep asking how you can see the film that captures my final semester of teaching, The Last Class.

The talented team that created the film has announced that starting right now, for the first time ever, you can rent the film directly from the film’s website and watch in the comfort of your own home. Anywhere in the world, whether you live in Paris, Texas, or Paris, France.

Watch the film

When I decided to retire from teaching a few years back, my longtime friend, collaborator, and co-host of our Coffee Klatch podcast, Heather Lofthouse, thought it would be a shame not to document my final semester on camera. She worked with journalist and filmmaker Elliot Kirschner on how best to tell the story.

At first, their ambitions were modest: a short video on YouTube. Then the project morphed into a feature-length documentary. And thanks to many of you, it became a hit. When I compare how the project was pitched to me to what it’s become, I sometimes complain that I was the victim of a “bait and switch” — but I couldn’t be prouder about what emerged.

The film is really a love letter to teaching. It’s about the critical role of education in a democracy and the power of critical thinking. It focuses on my wonderful students at UC Berkeley and our shared hopes for the future.

The link below is your ticket to the film. I hope you’ll see it — and, especially if you like it, tell others about the film and how they can see it.

My thanks and kudos to the more than 40,000 students I’ve taught over my lifetime. And to Heather Lofthouse, Elliot Kirschner, and all the other hugely talented people who have brought this film to life — and to you.

Watch the film

All money received for the film goes to the nonprofit Inequality Media Civic Action to make more films and videos. The film team wants to assure you that if you can’t afford the price, they’ll waive the fee. Just email them at: thelastclassfilm@imcivicaction.org.

Happy viewing!

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How to Describe this Catastrophe?

15 May 2026 at 10:03

Friends,

Words matter. When describing a government, they inevitably carry moral weight.

Over the last 16 months, Trump and his appointees have so profoundly undermined the United States government that we should use different words to describe these people than we’ve used to describe all previous administrations.

To begin with, they shouldn’t be called an “administration” at all. They should be referred to as a regime.

The Trump regime has flagrantly defied court orders. In February 2026, a federal judge (appointed by President George W. Bush) identified approximately 200 orders from the District of Minnesota alone that ICE had ignored since the start of the year, concluding that ICE had “likely violated more court orders in January 2026 than some federal agencies have violated in their entire existence.” The regime has also vilified judges who rule against it and demanded their impeachment.

The regime has usurped Congress’s powers to declare war, issue tariffs, and appropriate public funds. It is using tariffs as cudgels for Trump’s political aims. The regime is seeking to stifle speech and silence criticism — in universities, law firms, and the media.

Secondly, this regime is not headed by a “president,” as the Constitution of the United States and our laws and history have designated the head of the executive branch of the U.S. government. To put the term “President” before Trump’s name defiles the Constitution. He is an authoritarian.

Trump has illegally fired more than 300,000 career civil servants. He has fired inspectors general who are charged with holding political appointees accountable. He punishes whistleblowers who protest abuses. He attacks marginalized groups and foments bigotry. He is openly persecuting political opponents. He has given out pardons to convicted felons who are political supporters or financial contributors — including nursing home fraudsters, a Honduran president who smuggled 400 tons of cocaine into the United States, and January 6 seditionists. He has sent federal troops into states and cities headed by Democratic officials.

Thirdly, Trump has no interest in governing. He wants only to impose his will and make money from his office. His regime’s disregard for law is so monumental that it negates what we have come to understand as a “government of laws.” A better word for it is lawless.

During the first 16 months of Trump’s lawless regime, immigration agents have shot or killed 16 people, including three U.S. citizens. More people died last year in the custody of Immigration and Customs Enforcement — a total of 32 — than in the preceding 20 years. People only suspected of being in the U.S. illegally have been detained or deported by masked and armed immigration agents, without a hearing. People only suspected of smuggling drugs have been murdered by the U.S. military in international waters, in violation of international law.

Meanwhile, Trump is accepting gifts from foreign powers. He blatantly promotes his family’s crypto business and implements policies favorable to it. He has sued the Internal Revenue Service for $10 billion and is now in settlement negotiations with his own Justice Department, which reportedly has offered to drop any future IRS audits of Trump, his family, or his businesses.

Finally, the true test of a successful president of the United States and his (eventually her) administration is not how much power he accumulates or how much he gets done. The real test is how much better off are the American people and how much stronger is our democracy. By these measures, Trump and his regime are not just lawless. They are a catastrophe.

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The Most Important Thing You Should Know About the CEOs Traveling to China with Trump

14 May 2026 at 10:02

Tim Cook, Elon Musk, Jane Fraser, Jensen Huang

Friends,

Trump calls the entourage of 12 CEOs accompanying him to China an “incredible gathering” of America’s “Greatest Businessmen/women.”

Well, it may be an incredible gathering. But to characterize them as America’s greatest business leaders — who are assumed to be leading America’s competitive charge against China — is misleading.

The American CEOs traveling with Trump to China don’t think of themselves as being in competition with China. In fact, they’d like nothing better than to make more money for themselves and their shareholders by setting up more lower-cost, highly productive factories and research facilities in China and hiring more Chinese talent.

It’s an important distinction. The CEOs of Chinese companies are in business not only to make money but also to strengthen China’s geopolitical power in the world. The CEOs of American companies want to make gobs of money, of course, but they couldn’t give a rat’s ass about strengthening America’s geopolitical power in the world.

This basic difference is airbrushed away in breathless media stories about the competitive race between the American and Chinese economies — the so-called “race for supremacy” in AI, advanced semiconductors, supercomputers, solar wafers, biotechnology, and other industries of the future.

The distinction never appears in the breezy press coverage of Trump’s trip to China, along with his “U.S. corporate” delegation.

Take Elon Musk, obviously a conspicuous presence in Trump’s CEO delegation. Musk’s Tesla Gigafactory Shanghai produces over a third of Tesla’s global car sales. It’s also Tesla’s most productive factory. In February 2025, Musk opened a second factory in Shanghai, a $200-million plant focused on producing Megapack batteries. Nearly 40 percent of Tesla’s entire battery supply chain relies on Chinese companies.

All good for Musk and for Tesla shareholders, but what about American workers, who aren’t getting this work? What about America’s national security, which could be compromised if China gains further global dominance over batteries (as well as other renewables)? Do you think Musk cares?

Or consider Apple’s Tim Cook, also in Trump’s CEO delegation. China has become the gravitational core of Apple’s supply chain. Indeed, much of Apple’s success is due to Cook’s move to consolidate virtually all of his company’s manufacturing in China. About 90 percent of iPhones are assembled there, backed by massive investments in local supplier expertise and infrastructure. Cook explains that he’s taking advantage of China’s “unmatched” expertise in advanced tooling and manufacturing.

Since 2008, Apple has worked with Chinese suppliers to train 30 million workers there and has transferred practical engineering knowledge of how to make complex things from American engineers to thousands of Chinese engineers in hundreds of Chinese factories and research centers. Apple’s Cupertino, California, headquarters has sent so many American engineers to China to teach Chinese engineers that it even persuaded United Airlines to schedule three weekly flights from San Francisco to Chengdu and Hangzhou.

A third CEO in Trump’s delegation is Jane Fraser, CEO of Citigroup. Her goal has been to expand the bank’s (and its clients’) investments in China by growing Citigroup’s team in China and capturing market share for the corporation in high technology and advanced manufacturing.

Fraser’s moves may be good for Citigroup’s bottom line, but they may not be good for America. As she connects international investors with opportunities within China, she may be siphoning off potential investments in high technology and advanced manufacturing in the United States.

Another American CEO in Trump’s delegation is Jensen Huang, CEO of Nvidia. Huang’s goal is to get China to buy Nvidia’s AI and its advanced H200 processors, even at the risk that Chinese computer scientists and engineers might reverse-engineer them, as they have so many other technologies America once dominated.

Huang argues that with roughly half of all the world’s AI researchers, China is strategically vital for American tech companies. Huang may be right, but what’s strategically vital for American AI companies may not be in the strategic interest of the United States. The capacities that increase these corporations’ profits and returns to their American investors (including the pay packages of their CEOs) do not necessarily increase the productivity, knowledge, or strategic strength of America’s AI.

Doesn’t Trump know this? Does he assume that the rest of us don’t know? Is he really ignorant of the fact that Chinese corporations are tethered to China, but the CEOs of Tesla, Apple, Nvidia, and other so-called “American” corporations are not strategically bound to America? American CEOs aren’t paid to worry about the competitiveness of the United States, nor the number of good jobs in America, nor even about American national security.

Maybe Trump knows all this but doesn’t care. When it comes to making big money doing global deals, Trump’s merry band of CEOs has about as much loyalty to the United States as does Trump himself.

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My interview with Justin Jones

14 May 2026 at 02:00

Friends,

Sorry to invade your inbox for a third time today, but I thought you’d find this interesting and useful.

Southern white Republican legislatures are now breaking up Black districts — both because Donald Trump asked them to, and because the Supreme Court now allows them to.

The vast majority of Americans understand this is morally wrong. It’s not where the nation should be now, more than 161 years after General Robert E. Lee surrendered to General Ulysses S. Grant at Appomattox Court House.

Justin Jones, a rising star among southern Black political leaders, joins me to explain what’s happening, why it’s happening, and what we must do in response.

***

As you’ll hear, Jones says that in light of the Supreme Court’s shameful decision in Louisiana v. Callais, the Tennessee legislature has already turned all its congressional districts into white-majority districts. Now, Black voters in Tennessee — who comprise nearly 30 percent of the state’s population — have no voice.

Jones describes the lengths to which the Tennessee legislature has gone to create white-majority districts. “There’s a Krispy Kreme in Nashville,” he explained. “There’s another just 30 minutes away by car. In traveling from one to another, you now pass through five of Tennessee’s nine congressional districts.” That’s how absurdly gerrymandered Tennessee has become.

What to do?

First, Jones notes that the state used census maps to redistrict. Those maps identify people by race but not by political party. Jones believes this could be sufficient evidence of intent to racially gerrymander — the Supreme Court’s new test under the Voting Rights Act. Intent is incredibly difficult to prove, however.

Jones also thinks it would be appropriate for the young people of America to undertake another Freedom Summer, as they did in 1964.

“It’s the moment for courage,” Jones says. “We’re fighting the same forces of the confederacy as in the Civil War. Sometimes a democracy requires disruption …. We have to sound the alarm. The story of civil rights is being written at this moment. The question is whether you stand up now. We need a new multiracial generation of civil rights activists.”

Hope you get a chance to watch the whole interview, which runs 12 minutes, 40 seconds.

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The Single Biggest Question Hanging Over Kevin Warsh's Fed

13 May 2026 at 22:42

Friends,

The Senate just confirmed Kevin Warsh to become the next chair of the Federal Reserve on a 54-45 vote.

This marks a new chapter in the history of an institution that depends for its credibility on political independence. That independence is important to you and everyone else who wants prices to remain stable and avoid inflation.

Trump has repeatedly attacked the Fed and its former chairman, Jerome Powell (not incidentally, a Trump appointee) for not lowering interest rates as quickly as Trump wants. Presumably, Trump wants lower interest rates because he figures that a “hot” economy is good for Republicans going into the 2026 midterms and perhaps even the 2028 general election, even if it means faster inflation.

Trump launched a trumped-up (pardon me) criminal investigation of Powell based on alleged cost overruns for refurbishing the Fed building and another against Fed member Lisa Cook based on alleged mortgage fraud. Neither of these individuals has left the Fed. (Powell’s term as chair ends May 15, but he has announced he’ll fill the remainder of his term, which runs until January 31, 2028, as a Fed governor. He says Trump’s pressure campaign against the central bank left him no choice but to stay on. The case against Cook has been taken up by the Supreme Court, which is expected to issue an opinion before its current term ends in July.)

Senator Thom Tillis, Republican of North Carolina and a member of the Senate Banking Committee, blocked Warsh’s nomination until Trump dropped his legal threats against Powell. (Tillis thereby earns one of my Joseph N. Welch Awards for courage in the face of Trump’s tyranny.)

The big question now is whether Warsh will do Trump’s bidding and advocate lower interest rates even in the face of rising inflation — a move that would worsen the inflation even if it gives the economy (along with Trump and the Republicans) a temporary boost. (All but one Democrat in the Senate voted against confirming Warsh, reflecting concerns about his willingness to maintain the Fed’s political independence. During his confirmation hearing, Senate Democrats derided Warsh as Trump’s “sock puppet.”)

Why Fed independence is so important

The reason why the Fed, like most nations’ central banks, is supposed to be independent of politics is so people who are buying and selling financial assets don’t base their transactions on Trump’s or any other political leader’s desire for a booming economy in the short run (that is, until the next election) even at the risk of inflation.

Otherwise, inflation could easily get out of control. As William McChesney Martin Jr., the longest-serving chairman of the Federal Reserve, famously put it, the role of the Fed is “to take away the punch bowl just as the party gets going.”

Martin’s “party” is an expanding economy with growing inflationary pressures, and the “punch bowl” is low interest rates and easy credit that fuel these growing pressures. As the designated chaperone, the Fed has to raise interest rates to prevent the economy from overheating, even if doing so harms a president’s political prospects.

I was in the Carter administration when Fed Chair Paul Volcker decided to “break the back” of inflation by raising interest rates so high that he put the economy into a recession and, arguably, caused voters to boot Carter out of office in 1980.

I was in the Clinton administration when Fed Chair Alan Greenspan threatened to raise interest rates (which might also have led to a recession and caused voters to boot Clinton out of office in 1996) unless Clinton reduced the federal budget deficit — which Clinton did (over my strenuous but failed objections).

Can Warsh succeed?

Warsh’s success on the job depends on the perceptions of millions of financial traders, who presumably will be looking for any hint that he’s soft on inflation.

Ironically, Trump’s loud insistence on lower interest rates, coupled with rising inflation due to Trump’s war in Iran and his tariffs, all make Warsh’s job far more difficult.

I don’t expect the Fed to lower interest rates before the end of the year, regardless. Warsh’s first meeting as chair will be June 16-17.

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Office Hours: What Does Trump Do NEXT to Get Out of the Quagmire of Iran?

13 May 2026 at 10:02

Friends,

Trump’s war with Iran — which he originally promised would be over in “four to five weeks” — has now entered its third month. Iran and Trump are engaged in a massive game of chicken — and time seems to be running out for both sides.

The consequences of the war for Iran’s economy are far worse than for America’s, but Iran’s dictatorship presumably can withstand public pressure more easily than Trump can, especially with midterm elections in the U.S. in less than six months. Sixty percent of Americans disapprove of Trump’s handling of the war.

The International Monetary Fund projects that Iran’s economy will contract 6.1 percent this year and inflation will reach nearly 70 percent. Iran’s currency, the rial, has hit record lows (around 1.32–1.8 million to the dollar), resulting in massive layoffs, high unemployment, and acute shortages of essential goods and medicine.

In the United States, the average price of gasoline has climbed to more than $4.55 per gallon, up over $1.50 since the war began in late February. Driven by a surge in energy costs from the war, inflation rose in April to an annual rate of 3.8 percent, up from 3.3 percent in March — marking the highest rate of inflation since May 2023 and making it unlikely that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this year.

So what will Trump do now? The man who claims he knows better than anyone how to make a deal has so far been outmaneuvered by the regime he says he toppled.

I’ve summarized below the four main options now open to him, according to specialists in foreign policy and the Middle East.

Read more

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