Jon Cohn has a good piece in The Bulwark on the challenges ahead for Abdul El-Sayed. The “brutal path ahead,” Jon calls it. I’ll note here that Jon is based in Michigan, despite beginning his journalism career in the East Coast cities where most political journalists are based. (In other words, his report isn’t based on parachuting into the state for a few weeks.) He notes the two, equally accurate narratives coming out of this primary battle. El-Sayed built a potent and victorious movement. Sanders-style progressive Democrats seldom win these contests in purple states. El-Sayed did. And he did it in the face of concerted opposition from the state’s Democratic establishment, the national establishment and an ocean of outside money, mostly from AIPAC.
It’s also true that Republicans will now run a viciously Islamophobic campaign against him, which will get extra traction from his association with the willfully inflammatory Hasan Piker. There’s another dynamic we’ve seen across numerous establishment-progressive battles. The Platner campaign pitched itself as appealing to working class or at least culturally working class voters who are usually unreachable by Democrats. But the polling showed that the demographic profile of Platner’s supporters looked pretty similar to what most Democrats have gotten over the last couple decades, and especially since Trump — the educated and affluent. The loose outlines of El-Sayed’s victory in Michigan look similar. Both make a pitch about young voters but they tend to appeal most to educated and downwardly mobile voters — so again, another version of standard early 21st century Democratic coalition.
On Wednesday morning, shortly after Dr. Abdul El-Sayed won the hotly contested Michigan Democratic Senate primary in a slender victory, the Republican Party let slip the dogs of war. Barely 15 minutes after the Associated Press called the race for the unabashed progressive and first-time candidate for federal office over the centrist Rep. Haley Stevens, Donald Trump was crowing on Truth Social that the 41-year-old El-Sayed’s win was “great news for the Republican Party.” The newly minted Democratic nominee, he wrote, is “a Communist loser who hates Jews and Israel.”
As he has for 10 years, the president set the tone for the rest of the GOP.
By the noon hour, the National Republican Senatorial Committee had fired off an attack ad that led with Islamophobia and recalled the attempts from some quarters to define a certain Illinois senator who carried the name Barack Hussein Obama. “Abdulrohman Mohamed El-Sayed,” the ad began, making a point to use the candidate’s full name, an obvious move to launch the process of otherizing him to voters in Michigan and across the country, “[is] the most radical Senate candidate in America.”
But the day’s vilest moment came three hours later when Alabama Sen. Tommy Tuberville, who has always demonstrated a willingness to go there, invoked the T-word in a brief interview.
But the day’s vilest moment came three hours later when Alabama Sen. Tommy Tuberville, who has always demonstrated a willingness to go there, invoked the T-word in a brief interview as he boarded an elevator after voting to confirm Dr. Erica Schwartz, Trump’s controversial nominee to head the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
“The guy was basically a cheerleader for 9/11,” Tuberville told me, linking El-Sayed to a comment made by the popular far-left streamer Hasan Piker, with whom the candidate campaigned, that “America deserved 9/11.” (When asked in April by POLITICO about Piker’s remarks, El-Sayed characterized the question as a “gotcha game” and said “I’m not here to disavow people’s views”; Piker later apologized for the comments, calling them “inappropriate,” “messed up” and a failed attempt at satire.) “I mean, come on,” Tuberville continued, “the country’s changed, but it hasn’t changed this much to put people in [office] that are basically terrorists.”
When I asked if he was calling El-Sayed a terrorist, the senator replied, “I say he’s got the ability to become one.”
Tuberville has the political incentive to make such inflammatory remarks; they will play well to Republicans in Alabama, where he is running for governor, and he has no grand designs on national office. But they and the GOP’s larger response to El-Sayed’s win reflect another emotion that is running throughout the party. Although Republicans got the Democratic opponent they professed to want for former Rep. Mike Rogers, who lost a Senate race to Elissa Slotkin in 2024 only by the thinnest of margins, they are also scared — and with good reason.
El-Sayed has got game. When I approached his campaign for comment on Tuberville’s remarks, I was directed to an exchange he had on Wednesday night with CNN’s Kaitlan Collins, in which he addressed the Republican onslaught.
“There are people like J.D. Vance or Donald Trump or Mike Rogers, who want to define America as being too small to include some kinds of people, and they point to my name, they point to my faith, they try to insinuate that somehow I’m less American because of those things,” El-Sayed said. “They want America to be small. I believe that America is big. It’s open-minded. It’s big-hearted. It can include any of us, regardless of how we pray, regardless of where our families come from, regardless of who we love or how we identify. That’s the America we’re building. And I think America, in Michigan in particular, has an opportunity to remind us just how big we are.”
Although El-Sayed has never run for federal office, these are not the words of a political novice. He is a gifted communicator, able both to make open-hearted, aspirational appeals and channel anger at billionaires and elites, a needle Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., for all of his influence on the Democratic Party, has never quite been able to thread.
But unlike eloquent politicians known to be showhorses, enjoying the social media clips from their media hits, El-Sayed is a workhorse, and this combination makes him formidable. One reason for his primary win is that he simply outworked Stevens, visiting over 110 cities, according to his campaign, holding over 500 public events and, in the process, building a genuine movement. This tenacity, along with rallying cries of “Medicare for All” and getting money out of politics, helped him overcome the opposition of the Democratic establishment and over $60 million in spending by super PACs supporting Stevens.
Nevertheless, after the race was called for El-Sayed, the Democratic Party quickly coalesced behind him and he was reportedly fielding calls from former Vice President Kamala Harris, former Transportation Secretary — and Michigan voter — Pete Buttigieg and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer.
The stakes are high. Polls taken before the primary showed El-Sayed trailing Rogers by a larger margin than Stevens. Democratic control of the Senate runs through Michigan, and as many have pointed out, El-Sayed’s win has teed up a first-of-its-kind test: whether a progressive can win in a swing state that narrowly voted for Trump in 2016, went for Biden four years later and returned to Trump in 2024. El-Sayed will need to be even more nimble than he already is and avoid giving the GOP talking points.
Despite generous overtures to Stevens and assurances to the Jewish community El-Sayed made in remarks on Wednesday morning after the race was called, there are intraparty divisions left to heal. He must set to work convincing centrist and moderate Democrats, Black voters in urban areas and suburban voters, all of which Stevens carried, as well as disaffected independents, that he is worthy of their vote. The race will be tough, but it is winnable, even as he continues to face GOP efforts to define him on their terms.
Responding to a reporter who asked about how Republicans are deploying his name in their attacks, El-Sayed said, “That’s the only play they got.”
Whether that’s true or not, between now and November, we’ll see if it works.
Though the AP called Abdul El-Sayed the winner of the Democratic nomination for Senate in Michigan as I went to publish this post, this race turned out to be much, much closer than people expected or what polls predicted. The margin ended up being just under 1% or about 15,000 votes. We become so entranced by polls that we often fall into thinking that a candidate like El-Sayed bobbled the race at the end or Stevens mounted a comeback. There may have been some late movement. But it’s important to remember that our narrative of the race was built around polls that were simply wrong. Very wrong. It was probably always much closer than people realized. Indeed, the margin is close enough that those polls might actually have shifted the outcome of the race by depressing Stevens’ turnout or juicing El-Sayed’s. It’s a good reminder that whether you’re a volunteer, a voter, an activist, or a campaign worker you play these things out till the very end. Polls are usually right. And they’re a good guide. Except when they’re not. And this was a big “except.”
With the prospect of another government shutdown looming, the Senate Appropriations Committee released the text of a continuing resolution (CR) on Sunday that would keep the federal government funded until Dec. 11 and punt the government funding negotiations until after the midterms.
In that stopgap bill, Democrats and a couple of Republicans included a significant provision that would ban, for now, the Trump White House and its Office of Management and Budget (OMB) from finalizing a grantmaking rule change it proposed in May.
It looks like we are going to get a big test of some cardinal (possibly outdated) assumptions about American politics. I’m thinking first about the Michigan Senate race (though we might have something similar in the Wisconsin governor’s race). Several recent polls show Abdul El-Sayed holding a consistent, substantial lead over Rep. Haley Stevens. The primary is on August 4. This has been presented as a prototypical Democratic establishment vs Bernie progressive/insurgent race. And in key respects it is.
El-Sayed has all the Bernie/progressive positions. He’s run a campaign that places a heavy emphasis on the Israel-Palestine issue. And he’s centered AIPAC in his campaign in a way that even for many longtime critics and haters of AIPAC (including myself here) has a distinct whiff of antisemitic conspiracy theories. To wit, yes, AIPAC sucks. They’re a blight. They are functionally a Republican operation these days. But they are not the secret hand guiding things in the background every time there’s a bad news story or reverse of fortune for some progressive candidate, which is basically the role they’re playing in El-Sayed’s campaign.
Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche’s confirmation is stalled.
A meeting that was scheduled to take place between Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) and Blanche was cancelled abruptly Wednesday morning — just a day before the Senate Judiciary Committee was scheduled to vote to move Blanche’s nomination for Attorney General out of committee.
The latest survey of the U.S. Senate race from Texas Public Opinion Research shows Democrat James Talarico leading Republican Ken Paxton, 45% to 40%, marking the Austin state representative’s largest lead in any public poll taken during the general election period.
Since Paxton locked up the GOP nomination in late May, polling of the contest has found a neck-and-neck race with neither candidate able to break 50%. But TPOR’s poll found Talarico leading among voters who do not have a college degree — a group that has consistently favored Republicans in Texas and across the country — and dominating among independents, less than a quarter of whom said they planned to vote for Paxton. The attorney general also had weaker Republican support than in other recent surveys, with nearly one in five GOP voters saying they were undecided or would vote for Talarico.
TPOR labels itself as a nonpartisan public opinion research group. It is directed by Democratic strategist Luke Warford.
The group surveyed 1,048 likely voters between July 15 and July 17, and has a margin of error of +/- 3.4 percentage points. Of those poll respondents, 53% voted for Donald Trump and 42% voted for Kamala Harris in 2024, making the sample only slightly bluer than the 2024 electorate, which favored Trump by a 14-point margin in Texas. Trump carried Texas by 5.6 percentage points in 2020, two years after the last midterm held during his presidency.
TPOR’s previous poll, fielded just after the May 26 runoff in which Paxton defeated Sen. John Cornyn, found Talarico leading 47% to 44%.
Texas’ U.S. Senate race figures to be one of the most closely watched and expensive contests in the nation. Democrats have not won a statewide race in the Lone Star State in over 30 years, but they believe a combination of Trump’s lagging approval ratings, Paxton’s ethical baggage and Talarico’s fundraising and populist messaging could deliver the victory that has eluded them for decades.
Republicans are taking the threat of Talarico seriously but nevertheless believe that, as the bitter primary between Paxton and Cornyn fades from memory and they highlight Talarico’s progressive views on social issues, Republicans will coalesce behind the attorney general. The nonpartisan Cook Political Report rates the race as “Lean Republican.”
Paxton’s 40% vote share is the lowest he has received in a public poll post-runoff. Other surveys have found Republicans were consolidating behind him. But the TPOR poll had Talarico winning 7% of self-described Republicans, and an additional 12% remained undecided. Meanwhile, only 1% of self-identified Democrats indicated they would vote for Paxton, and 6% were undecided.
For comparison, a New York Times/Siena poll of the Texas contest fielded in June, which found the overall result tied at 47%, found Talarico winning 5% of Republicans and only 4% unsure.
Perhaps the biggest outlier was Talarico’s lead among non-college-educated voters, who favored the Democrat by nine percentage points — 45% to 36%. He led by 1 percentage point among those with at least a bachelor’s degree.
In recent elections, education has been one of the most reliable predictors of how people vote, with a sharp partisan dividing line between those with and without degrees.Exit polling found that Republican Sen. Ted Cruzbeat Democrat Colin Allred by 18 percentage points among non-college-educated Texans in 2024. Even in 2018, when Democrat Beto O’Rouke came within 3 percentage points of victory, Cruz still won that bloc by a 6-point margin, exit polls found.
In the New York Times/Siena poll, Paxton had an 8-point lead among voters without a degree, and in TPOR’s own poll in May, Paxton led by a whopping 21 points among that group.
Other results hewed closer to recent polling of the race. The TPOR poll found Talarico leading heavily among Black and Latino voters, while Paxton maintained a strong lead with white voters. Black voters broke 71% for Talarico and 8% for Paxton, while Latinos preferred Talarico by a 66% to 20% margin.
Talarico’s polling lead owes to his strength with independents and non-college educated voters. The poll found Talarico garnering 43% of independents to Paxton’s 23%; 29% remain undecided. Among self-described moderates, Talarico’s lead is even more pronounced, with the Democrat ahead 54% to 20%.
The poll found that 14% of voters of all political stripes remain unsure about their pick. Among undecided voters, there is evidence Paxton has more room to grow: 19% of that bloc said they leaned toward the Republican, compared to 10% who leaned toward Talarico. Two-thirds reported being truly on the fence.
Some conservatives have cast doubt on the validity of TPOR’s polling given its Democratic ties. Warford is also a founding partner of Agave Democratic Infrastructure Fund, a political action committee dedicated to building Democratic campaign infrastructure in Texas. The fund’s largest donor, Simone Coxe, has also given $500,000 to a pro-Talarico super PAC this cycle.
Elsewhere on the ballot, the TPOR poll finds Republicans leading in the contests for governor and attorney general — though both are also close.
In the governor’s race, incumbent Republican Greg Abbott was leading Democratic state Rep. Gina Hinojosa of Austin by a 3-point margin, 45% to 42%. And in the open race to succeed Paxton as attorney general, Republican state Sen. Mayes Middleton of Galveston was up 39% to 38% over Democratic state Sen. Nathan Johnson of Dallas, well within the margin of error.
Both of those spreads would represent Democrats’ best performances for those offices in decades. But the high level of undecided voters in all three contests — U.S. Senate, governor and attorney general — suggest lots of room for movement in the less than 12 weeks remaining until Oct. 19, when the polls will open for early voting.
Disclosure: Simone Otus Coxe and The New York Times have been financial supporters of The Texas Tribune, a nonprofit, nonpartisan news organization that is funded in part by donations from members, foundations and corporate sponsors. Financial supporters play no role in The Texas Tribune’s journalism. Find a complete list of them here.
Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear (D) has once again formally requested proof of life from Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY), who has been absent from the Senate since he was hospitalized on June 14.
Beshear sent a new letter to McConnell, his staff and the office of Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) on Monday demanding the 84-year-old senator “directly and verbally address the people of Kentucky and provide proof of your capacity to serve, or resign.”
President Donald Trump on Monday morning called on Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) to cancel the upper chamber’s lengthy August recess until they pass the SAVE America Act — the voter suppression bill the president and his MAGA allies have been obsessively pushing Congress to pass for months.
“John Thune should not allow the United States Senate to ‘leave town’ until it passes The Save America Act or, far better still, TERMINATES THE FILIBUSTER, where Republicans can then quickly pass everything they ever dreamed of, including a full and deep throated SAVE AMERICA ACT, the Budget, and the ever looming Debt Ceiling disaster, 1929!” Trump wrote in a Truth Social post. “The Dumocrats will do it on day one, and can’t believe how lucky they got with this Senate leadership. Remember, stupidity always brings LOSING & DEATH!”
Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) on Tuesday threatened to vote against President Donald Trump’s ambassador nominees for Jamaica and Slovakia unless the Trump administration released the money Congress appropriated for the President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) — before he got “assurances” that convinced him to drop the plan.
Almost five months into President Donald Trump’s war on Iran, the Trump administration still has not asked for authorization from Congress to continue hostilities. They, however, did present Congress with a supplemental request — which includes, among other things, an ask for $67.1 billion for the Department of Defense to fund Trump’s war.
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth testified in front of the Senate Appropriations Committee Tuesday afternoon on the details of the Pentagon’s request. Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) used a significant portion of her time asking Hegseth if the administration plans to use an Iran war supplemental approved by Congress as a substitute for congressional authorization to continue the war.
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