There’s a lot to pay attention to this year. With Democrats putting up seemingly fantastical numbers in the polls, the map is expanded in ways that no one thought possible a year ago. Is Texas in play? Is Kansas? Looming over it is Trump’s cult of personality, and the lie that any election in which he or his allies run, they win.
This list is an attempt to pinpoint races that tell the story of where America is at this November, explain why, from TPM’s perspective, these races matter, and look ahead to the conversation we’ll be having in coming months.
1. Peggy Flanagan (D) / Michelle Tafoya (R) — Minnesota Senate
Why is this race especially important to TPM?
Extremism.
What to know:
Michelle Tafoya (R) has been doing well in polls in recent months, showing her within a few points of Peggy Flanagan (D) in what is normally a solidly blue state. That’s inspired the Trump administration to pull out all the stops to put its finger on the scale, rebooting the racial panic it tried to stoke last winter over the state’s Somali population. The capstone of that effort is the administration’s legal gambit to deport Rep. Ilhan Omar (D). It seems unlikely that this is going to land well in a state still recovering from this year’s federal invasion, which claimed the lives of two U.S. citizens. If Flanagan wins, as it still seems she will, Minnesota could end up as a prime candidate for Trump to target with his expected election interference.
What do the polls say?
It’s close.
2. The Five Congressional Seats Texas Republicans Redrew Their Map to Win
Why is this race especially important to TPM?
Voting rights.
What to know:
There were few congressional districts in Texas that went untouched by the legislature’s late-2025 redistricting bonanza, carried out, at Trump’s behest, in a mid-cycle gerrymandering bid to help Republicans hold the House regardless of voters’ wishes. Texas Republicans were the first to answer Trump’s call, and the party salivated over the boon they could extract from the giant state. Now, however, it appears that the Texas GOP may have overplayed its hand. In two heavily redrawn districts along the border, Texas’ 28th and 34th, Democrats stand a real chance. After all of Republicans’ work, Cook Political Report rates one, the 28th, represented by Vicente Gonzalez (D), as a “toss-up,” and another, the 34th, represented by Henry Cuellar (D), as “leans Democrat.” GOP spending patterns show that they are not taking the other three — the 9th, the 32nd and the 35th — for granted either. In order to create those five, theoretically pro-GOP districts, many other districts had to give up some Republican votes, ironically turning much of the state into a battleground where Democrats, in the right cycle, could snatch back some seats .
What do the polls say?
As usual with House races, there aren’t many public polls. But following the Republican money suggests that they are getting uneasy here.
3. Troy Jackson (D) / Susan Collins (R) — Maine Senate
Why is this race especially important to TPM?
Separation of powers, expanding Democrats’ map.
What to know:
Sen. Susan Collins (R) has been Democrats’ white whale for multiple cycles now, a talented politician who has defied political gravity and hung on in a state that’s only getting bluer. When Democrats’ first choice, Graham Platner, imploded after he was accused of sexual assault, they desperately grappled around for a replacement, landing on former state Senate leader Troy Jackson (D), who put together a lightning-fast nomination campaign. Jackson has not quite made up for lost time, with his truncated campaign and lack of Platner’s charisma keeping this race tight enough to make Democrats nervous.
He’ll hope to get a boost from ballot mate Hannah Pingree (D), who seems comfortably bound for the governor’s mansion.
What do the polls say?
Recent polls have given Jackson a small edge, but it’s a nail-biter.
4. Merrillee Malwitz-Jipson (D) / Marshall Rawson (R) — Florida House District 10
Why is this race especially important to TPM?
Extremism.
What to know:
Even in today’s Republican Party, it’s rare that you have someone who attended the Charlottesville white supremacist rally run for a state House seat. But Marshall Rawson (R) is one such candidate. Rawson activism with a neo-Confederate group called League of the South has been known for a decade, but it didn’t emerge until after he won his primary that he had attended the biggest white supremacist rally in a generation, at which participants famously chanted “Jews will not replace us.” TPM broke the story of Rawson’s attendance in September.
What do the polls say?
The Florida House district is extremely Republican, and Rawson will likely win.
5. Jon Ossoff (D) / Mike Collins (R) — Georgia Senate
Why is this race especially important to TPM?
Extremism, election denial.
What to know:
This race is one of several that will determine control of the Senate. But it also features perhaps the most extreme candidate running for the chamber this cycle, Mike Collins (R), who not only is slavishly loyal to president Trump, but has joked about killing immigrants, retweeted a video of white university students making monkey sounds at a Black woman, and cheered the January 2026 FBI raid on Fulton County’s election office with a since-deleted post on X: “Go get ‘em Kash.” Given this, it may not be surprising that he has constantly been asked to explain why so many white nationalist and anitsemitic figures have turned up in his campaign, congressional office, and family. What has been surprising, though, is his complete inability to answer for it. In recent debates, Collins has fumbled through questions about these connections, and refused to concede Trump lost the 2020 election.
What do the polls say?
Collins’ opponent, incumbent Sen. Jon Ossoff (D), is ahead.
6. Sherrod Brown (D) / Jon Husted (R) — Ohio Senate
Why is this race especially important to TPM?
Expanding Democrats’ map.
What to know:
There was a time when Ohio picked the president. That broke down in 2020 when Trump won the state by 8 points despite losing reelection. It has trended increasingly red in recent years, raising the question of whether a Democrat can still win statewide. If one can, the conventional wisdom goes, it is Sherrod Brown (D) in 2026. His opponent, Jon Husted (R), has struggled to distance himself from the many data centers he brought to Ohio during his time as lieutenant governor, and that the public now adamantly opposes. If Democrats can’t pick up this seat with an optimal candidate in an optimal cycle, it’s hard to see when they ever would.
Elsewhere on the Ohio ballot, the contest for governor between former state health department director Amy Acton (D) and former presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy (R) is also competitive. Ramaswamy has struggled throughout his campaign to connect with voters and to hit baseballs. Some polls have Acton up by as many as nine points. The race is wrapping up on a particularly nasty note, with an attack ad featuring Acton’s mother — long estranged from the candidate after she stayed with the man who sexually abused Acton when she was a child — to paint Acton as a liar. The Ramaswamy campaign doubled down amid the ensuing outrage, calling Acton a “serial fabulist.”
What do the polls say?
Acton is running a tick ahead of Ramaswamy, but both that race and the Senate one are extremely close, the Democrats having a slight edge.
7. Secretaries of State races, including in New Mexico, Arizona and Georgia
Why is this race especially important to TPM?
Extremism, voting rights, election denial.
What to know:
The secretary of state’s office may have gone without much attention before the Trump era, but no longer. The official who oversees elections in key states is in the cross-hairs of those who believe the myths that election was stolen in 2020, and that widespread fraud and non-citizen voting continues to help Democrats. In Arizona and New Mexico, two election denial activists are themselves on the ballot, running for the role. In Georgia, the Republican candidate has reportedly said there were “irregularities” in the 2020 election but has stopped short of claiming Trump won. That candidate, Tim Fleming (R), has also repeated false claims about mail-in ballots being used to commit voter fraud and has been evasive about whether he would be ready to do as his would-be predecessor, Brad Raffensperger (R), did and stand up to Trump. Fleming did tout that he has voted for the president six times during a debate in May. When you have a Republican administration that has shown it is hellbent on seizing the constitutional right to administer elections from states, it’s pretty crucial to have people who are not election deniers serving in those roles in the lead up to 2028.
What do the polls say?
Too little polling to say anything conclusive.
8. Adam Hamilton (D) / Roger Marshall (R) — Kansas Senate
Why is this race especially important to TPM?
Expanding Democrats’ map.
What to know:
Though everyone is surprised that a Democrat may be on the cusp of winning a Senate election in Kansas, the party has experienced electoral success in the state before — and relatively recently. Current, term-limited Gov. Laura Kelly (D) won in 2018 and again in 2022, riding, the first time, the backlash to Trump and, the second time, the backlash to Dobbs. Now, Democrats could strike gold again with popular Methodist minister Adam Hamilton (D), who is up against the uniquely unlikeable and scandal-hobbled incumbent senator, Roger Marshall (R). This is the kind of race where Democrats will need everything to go right, but they at least have secured themselves a candidate compelling enough to put the state into play, and possibly to give Democrats a blueprint for other deep red state races. Elsewhere on the ballot, polling shows a competitive gubernatorial contest between state senators Ty Masterson (R) and Cindy Holscher (D).
What do the polls say?
Hamilton v. Marshall is as close as can be. Holscher is running a few points behind Masterson.
9. David Crowley (D) / Tom Tiffany (R) — Wisconsin Governor
Why is this race especially important to TPM?
Extremism, voting rights, election denial.
What to know:
Tom Tiffany (R) is a weird character, and Wisconsin is important. Wisconsin Gov. Tony Evers (D) announced last summer that he would not seek a third term in office, creating an open race for governor in Wisconsin for the first time since 2010. Tiffany, a member of Congress, has done nothing to engender confidence that he would support free and fair elections in the state. The main problem with the Trump-backed Tiffany is the extent to which he threw his weight behind overturning the results of the 2020 election. Tiffany didn’t just vote against certifying President Biden (D) as the winner of the election in Arizona and Pennsylvania (he vowed to do the same for Wisconsin but that vote was interrupted by the mob of Trump supporters that stormed the Capitol), he also joined a Ken Paxton (R)-led effort to throw out Wisconsin’s election results after Trump lost. His election denialism continues to this day, too — in June he embraced the FBI’s investigation into the 2020 election in Wisconsin.
But Tiffany is no exception to the trend that’s emerged in recent weeks, as Republicans try to distance themselves from the deeply unpopular president who is not on the ballot but wants voters to pretend he is. In September, Tiffany’s campaign conceded “Joe Biden won” when asked about the 2020 results. Even then, his campaign still involuntarily offered to “cooperate with law enforcement on investigations” into Wisconsin elections.
What do the polls say?
Close, but Crowley seems slightly ahead.
10. Phil Weiser (D) / Viktor Marx (R) — Colorado Governor
Why is this race especially important to TPM?
Extremism.
What to know:
Viktor Marx (R) is a unique character well-suited to our unique political moment. Over his years as a Christian nationalist leader, author, and self-described “high risk missionary,” the Republican Party nominee for governor in Colorado has boasted of having personally rescued thousands of people from conflict zones and of attaining multiple black belts in various martial arts. His impressive resume is not limited to the earthly realms, however: he has also, in his telling, battled demons and faced down Satan himself, biographical details TPM has covered with interest. Critics have questioned Marx’s claims. He’s likely to lose to the Democratic nominee, Phil Weiser, potentially dragging fellow Colorado Republicans down with him.
What do the polls say?
Marx is almost certainly going to lose.
11. Kristen McDonald Rivet (D) / Tom Smith (R) — Michigan’s 8th Congressional District
Why is this race especially important to TPM?
Extremism, election denial.
What to know:
This is a weird one. The Republican candidate Tom Smith won his nomination by accident, likely due to racism. (Smith actually dropped out of the race in July and a different Republican, a Navy veteran and former law enforcement officer, had earned Trump’s endorsement in the primary. The Trump-backed candidate’s name was Amir Hassan, and, well, as one GOP strategist put it to Politico in August, the “GOP base was reluctant to support a dude named Amir Hassan.” Hence, Michigan voters elected the white-bread sounding Tom Smith, who was no longer running.) TPM later learned and was first to report that Smith attended protests in Washington, D.C. on Jan. 6, 2021 and live-tweeted the whole experience from “Jar Head Salsa,” a Twitter account for the food company he runs with his son.
What do the polls say?
There aren’t many polls of this race, but things are not looking good for Tom. For starters, Kristen McDonald Rivet (D) has wildly out-raised him. As of the beginning of this month, the Democrat had raised about $5 million in donations and contributions to her campaign. Tom’s raised about $250,000.
12. Missouri ballot amendments
Why is this race especially important to TPM?
Voting rights, abortion.
What to know:
You may recall one of the few bright spots to come out of the 2024 elections was the passage of an amendment that enshrined the “right to reproductive freedom” in the Missouri Constitution. The measure passed 52% to 48% and protected abortion in a state led by politicians who would outlaw it if given the chance. Now, the Missouri General Assembly is asking voters to repeal that same constitutional amendment that they voted into law just two years ago. Amendment 3 would ban abortion in Missouri with exceptions only for medical emergencies, fetal anomaly, rape and incest. The measure would also ban gender-affirming care for minors. Missouri Republicans are gambling that some mixture of low turnout and confusing ballot language will help them thwart the clearly articulated desire of their constituents.
That perversion of democracy will sit alongside its triumph, as Missouri voters will also get the chance to vote up or down a maximal Republican gerrymander, despite state officials’ best efforts. The legislature passed the map last year, gerrymandering Black and Democratic voters in the Kansas City area out of electoral power, then tried to shield the new map from the state’s referendum voting process. They failed, due mostly to the still-normal Missouri Supreme Court — which, as we predicted, those same politicians are now looking to dismantle and MAGA-fy.
What do the polls say?
There’s limited polling of these measures.
13. Matt Dunlap (D) / Paul LePage (R) — Maine’s 2nd Congressional District
Why is this race especially important to TPM?
Extremism.
What to know:
Paul LePage (R) is an old school TPM character: He was Trump before Trump, he often jokes. A trailblazer on the hard right, he denounced immigrants as “the enemy” and labeled one political opponent a “socialist cocksucker” a full decade ago. He looms large in Maine, where he served as governor from 2011 to 2019. The district in which he is now running — Maine’s 2nd — covers a huge portion of the state, the largely unpopulated north. Republicans often win it, though for the last several years it’s been held by Jared Golden (D), a conservative Democrat who is retiring. Matt Dunlap (D), a much more mainstream Democrat, is running against LePage to replace Golden. It’s been conventional wisdom that Dunlap is too progressive for this district, though a big enough blue wave could net the seat anyway. Recent polls show Dunlap ahead. Cook Political Report rates it “lean Republican.”
What do the polls say?
Dunlap seems to have a slight lead.
Josh Kovensky, Hunter Walker and Christopher Mathias contributed reporting.
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