PARIS — The first publicly available poll following the violence that rocked France over the weekend showed little change in voter intentions in next spring’s presidential election.
While even some of far-right front-runner Marine Le Pen’s adversaries expected her to get a boost from the rioting and looting that took place on the sidelines of peaceful protests on Saturday, the survey published by Ifop and Fiducial found little change in her support levels.
Nor was there much change in voting intentions toward far-left candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon, whom the government has repeatedly blamed for stoking the violence. Mélenchon and his allies have repeatedly and forcefully denied the accusation.
The poll was conducted online from 8 p.m. Saturday — after rioting and looting had begun — until Monday.
Le Pen remains well ahead of the pack with 34% to 38% of the vote in the various scenarios tested. Given France’s presidential election moves to a two-person runoff if no candidate obtains a majority of votes on the first round, the battle for second place is shaping to be the most crucial story of the election.
That fight looks like it will be a tight one.
Mélenchon’s position remains similar to what it was before Saturday, despite the attempt by the government and his opponents to tie him to the unrest. The Ifop Fiducial survey has him either in sole possession of second place or tied for it in the various scenarios tested, though his lead on his nearest competitors — center-right former Prime Minister Edouard Philippe and center-left MEP Raphaël Glucksmann — is in some cases within the margin of error.
“The first feedback we’ve had from the ground — including from areas where we’re not held in high regard — is that the tactic of blaming us for everything isn’t working,” said a high-level Mélenchon campaign operative, granted anonymity to discuss internal campaign analysis.
Paris prosecutor Laure Beccuau told broadcaster TF1 on Monday that she “absolutely [could] not confirm” the government’s analysis based on the profiles of those arrested and placed under investigation in the French capital so far.
The government, meanwhile, continues to fend off critics who allege that it has mismanaged the affair, which they are concerned could snowball into a sustained movement like the Yellow Vest demonstrations of 2018.
Calls for more protests this coming Saturday have emerged online, prompting Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu to order what he called on Tuesday a “massive” police apparatus to avoid more scenes of vandalism, arson and mayhem. Interior Minister Laurent Nuñez said elite tactical police and a military unit normally deployed on French soil for counterterrorism operations would be mobilized as well.
After localized curfews were established throughout the country Monday, Lecornu said it would be up to local and regional authorities to renew them Tuesday night.
PARIS — Looting and rioting across France over the weekend are threatening to reshape the contours of the French presidential race.
Far-right front-runner Marine Le Pen is seizing on the crisis to cast herself as the candidate of law and order, but there are risks for her too. Many voters see her as a highly divisive leader whose 2027 victory would only deepen the societal fault lines exposed by the riots.
Far-left firebrand Jean-Luc Mélenchon, widely tipped to challenge Le Pen in the second round next year, is also treading carefully as rivals accuse him of encouraging the rage on the streets that has morphed into pillaging and arson.
For the flailing centrists, there is now an opportunity to finally make an impression in the contest — but only if they can distance themselves from President Emmanuel Macron, who is seen as fluffing his response to the nationwide wave of vandalism.
Overall, it’s pushing the election into uncharted waters.
“If there’s a real crisis, you don’t know where it could lead,” said one conservative who holds regular talks with officials from the far-right National Rally and was granted anonymity to discuss the subject.
Where does that leave the candidates? POLITICO takes a look at the strategic calculus for the leading runners across the political spectrum.
Marine Le Pen, on the up
Le Pen is receiving an immediate boost. Even her rivals admit it.
This Saturday’s unrest “benefits the far right,” said center-right European Member of Parliament Nathalie Loiseau. “They are circling around the violence like vultures,” she said in an interview.
Le Pen has already cast herself as the alternative president, delivering a sober address to the nation Sunday and pitching herself as the candidate of a “pacified France.”
Jordan Bardella, president of her National Rally party, upped the ante on the protests and pitched his party as the only one able to restore order, dialing up fears about the pillaging. The rioters “will soon be breaking into people’s homes,” he said at a press conference in Paris. “The authorities are collapsing.”
But excessive, prolonged chaos could backfire on a party long seen as instigating civil unrest. And the topic is already becoming a talking point inside the National Rally.
Marine Le Pen holds a press conference on the sidelines of a meeting of the Patriots for Europe in Brussels on Oct. 14, 2026. | Nicolas Tucat/AFP via Getty Images
“Some say that this shows that there will be riots if the National Rally comes to power,” said Charles-Henri Gallois, one of Bardella’s advisers. “But I don’t believe it.”
According to the conservative quoted above, periods of instability can lead the French to turn their backs on anti-establishment figures and prefer traditional veterans.
“You could end up with [Charles] De Gaulle on the Champs-Elysées,” the official said, referring to how the first president of the Fifth Republic emerged with extra powers after the 1958 crisis that roiled the nation.
Jean-Luc Mélenchon, on the defensive
Far-left leader Mélenchon is in a bind as he walks a tightrope between supporting protesters and distancing himself from violence.
The France Unbowed party supported the school protests in the run-up to last weekend’s riots, and far-left elected officials have played a prominent role in the blockades, either in decrying alleged police violence or in support of the protesters.
In the battle for leadership between Mélenchon and center-left MEP Raphaël Glucksmann, the former grabbed the limelight.
Jean-Luc Mélenchon is pictured during a demonstration in Paris on Oct. 17, 2026. | Augustin Pasquini/Hans Lucas/AFP via Getty Images
But the violence this weekend could end up marginalizing the far left, especially with the government and political rivals accusing them of fueling the unrest. “They tried to aggravate the situation,” Loiseau said.
On Monday, Mélenchon tried to turn the tables, firing back at the government, saying the prime minister was fomenting “disorder” with his accusations that ultra-left groups were trying to disrupt the election.
Edouard Philippe, looking for a reset
For the center-right presidential hopeful Philippe, the riots aren’t good news either. He has to work hard to distance himself from his old boss, President Emmanuel Macron, who is seen as failing to respond sufficiently to the crisis. (Philippe was Macron’s first prime minister.)
But the protests could also be his opportunity to show some character, and rebut critics who think his campaign lacks energy and panache. Philippe, the best-placed centrist candidate to beat the far-right, has seen his poll ratings stall in recent months and has struggled to cut through the campaign noise.
Edouard Philippe gives a speech in Paris on Oct. 14, 2026. | Dimitar Dilkoff/AFP via Getty Images
A break with Macron might just be what he needs.
Philippe came out hard against the president after he failed to announce any measures during his primetime television address Sunday. “I would have preferred… decisions and initiatives to restore order,” he wrote online. “This country needs someone in command.”
But the former PM will need to stick his neck out more if he’s going to make an impact.
“He’s very presidential, and it’s a posture that suits him,” said one of Macron’s ministers, who, like others cited here, was granted anonymity to speak candidly.
“But he’s not saying anything. What’s his measure? Why doesn’t he say we need to call a state of emergency? “
Raphaël Glucksmann, on the offensive
For the MEP Raphaël Glucksmann, the protests are a trial by fire after he won the Socialist Party primary contest earlier this month and became the center-left’s presidential candidate.
On Monday, Glucksmann tried to strike a very different note from Mélenchon, telling reporters that “it’s unbearable … that hordes of looters should attack symbols of the state.”
Raphaël Glucksmann speaks in Paris on Oct. 11, 2026. | Benjamin Vodant/Hans Lucas/AFP via Getty Images
Sensing a chink in the far-left leader’s armor, he accused the leader of France Unbowed of being “a springboard” for Le Pen, who would be “the beneficiary of the chaos.”
Glucksmann has seen his poll ratings go up since he won the Socialist Party primary outright, reaching 15% to 16.5% according to a recent Elabe poll — in a similar territory to Mélenchon and Philippe.
But the minister quoted above expected Glucksmann to peak soon.
“He can only take voters away from Mélenchon,” the minister said. “A left-wing voter may vote for the right, but a right-wing voter won’t vote for the left anytime soon,” the person said.
Emmanuel Macron, on the skids
Macron is being roasted for going on television to address the nation and announce … absolutely nothing.
On Sunday, Macron promised that rioters who “destroyed” things would have to pay the price and called for “clear answers” on why the protests turned violent.
“Fucking hell, it’s rubbish,” said one former senior government official.
Macron has cultivated an image of being above the fray and went on a trip to the Middle East on Monday. But his failure to respond to the violence risks damaging his final months in power. “It’s out of touch,” a regional official said.
According to the minister quoted above, Macron should have let his prime minister do the talking but instead was encouraged to make “a speech to calm” the situation.
On Monday, Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu tried to get a grip on the situation, announcing localized curfews, movement restrictions, and bans on public demonstrations.
But another day of demonstrations has already been announced for next Saturday, sparking fears the protests will snowball into sustained protests similar to the Yellow Vests movement in 2018 and 2019.
If so, this chaos will be a defining element of the 2027 campaign.
LONDON — The Liberal Democrats used to watch their rivals indulge in messy factional squabbles with glee. Now they are scrambling to project an image of unity.
Britain’s third-largest Westminster group could hold significant power after the next election if no party wins a majority of MPs and Prime Minister Andy Burnham is casting around for a deal.
But for now, the focus is on weathering an internal storm in the centrist outfit. MPs rallied around their leader Ed Davey this week at a marathon four-hour meeting — held days after one of his frontbenchers resigned in an ill-fated attempt to oust the party chief.
The botched coup comes as the Liberal Democrats try to answer a more existential question: what are they actually for and how do they make an impact in Britain’s fragmented political landscape?
POLITICO’s Poll of Polls shows the Lib Dems coasting along. After getting 12.2% in the 2024 general election — and bagging a record 72 members of parliament as a result — the party has slipped down, polling between 9% and 11% since Andy Burnham became prime minister.
POLITICO explains why Lib Dems are now openly discussing Davey’s future; how much danger he is in; and exactly how the man known for a cheery demeanor and eye-catching paddle-board stunts could be capsized.
1) Why is Davey’s future in the headlines?
The surprise resignation of the Lib Dems’ Treasury spokesperson Charlie Maynard a week ago triggered the latest round of soul-searching about the leader’s future — but the grumbling goes back a bit further.
Maynard’s resignation followed costly tax-cutting pledges from Davey at the party’s conference in September and came hot on the heels of sharp responses — including from 2024-intake Lib Dem MPs Tom Gordon and Vikki Slade — to the way Davey defended an existing guarantee on state pensions. Some MPs believe the party isn’t adequately representing younger voters by opposing changes to the so-called triple lock, now targeted for reform by Burnham.
The immediate threat looks to have receded. Maynard’s resignation has gone down badly among a host of colleagues.
One Lib Dem frontbencher — granted anonymity to speak about internal matters like others in this piece — said the “vast majority of us think it’s beyond ridiculous and are really angry.” A second frontbencher said it was “bang out of order” for colleagues to brief internal policy discussions to the press.
2) So he’s safe?
Not quite — fizzled plots like this have a habit of still bringing grumbling to the surface (just ask Theresa May)
There remains frustration among some MPs over Davey’s perceived failure to exploit a gap in British politics opened up by voters’ deep dislike of Keir Starmer’s Labour government after the 2024 general election.
YouGov’s Anthony Wells explains that the party was stagnant “during a period where the Starmer government came in, became extremely unpopular [and] lost a huge amount of support” that “didn’t go to them.”
He contrasted this with how the Lib Dems gained traction in the 2000s when the Labour government was in big trouble. The Lib Dems are normally good at grabbing “the low-hanging fruit of unpopular left-of-center governments.”
“They haven’t nailed their colors really firmly to any mast,” says Wells. “They have been something to all men — and it means they may have suffered in comparison to people like the Greens under [leader] Zack Polanski, who’ve been much clearer about what they stand for.”
Removing a Lib Dem leader remains reasonably easy — though a crunch meeting of the parliamentary party on Tuesday suggests there currently aren’t enough MPs to actually trigger a ballot of no confidence, let alone win one.
Eighteen MPs (25% of the parliamentary party) would need to push for a vote of no confidence to be held. An absolute majority — 36 MPs — would then have to vote no confidence in Davey for a leadership election to be triggered.
Davey could stand in that leadership election if he could secure nominations from 10% of Lib Dem MPs and 200 members from at least 20 different local parties.
Unlike in the Conservatives, where a leader cannot be challenged again for a year after they win a no-confidence vote, Davey would be given no such grace period if he survived — meaning another ballot could take place just months after he saw off a coup attempt.
3) What’s the view from Davey world?
The arguments in the leader’s favor appear to have won out — for now.
For one, he has a record of winning. Davey can point to having taken the party to its largest number of constituencies in its modern form by focusing on a fight-by-fight, seats-first strategy. The 2024 campaign prioritized targeted campaigning in specific areas, rather than seeking a higher national vote share that doesn’t translate to a high number of MPs.
Loyal allies have come out to bat for their embattled boss this week. Deputy Leader Daisy Cooper, seen as a possible future leadership contender, said there’s a “real sense that we need to come together as a group” to stop the Tories and Reform UK “from forming the most right-wing government in our history.”
Subtext: let’s not mess around and let our real enemies in.
A third frontbencher told POLITICO Davey doesn’t “just have the support of the parliamentary party — there clearly aren’t anything like enough MPs to trigger a vote of no confidence.” They said Davey changing his top team earlier this year by appointing James Holt as director of political strategy and Ruth Younger as chief of staff “just needs time to percolate.”
4) So can Davey just keep calm and carry on?
Maybe.
Wells believes the party doesn’t “necessarily need to do much” to hold its current crop of seats at the next election — and that a middle-of-the-road approach against flashier, potentially more divisive opponents — might actually work in its favor.
While “their brand may be less distinctive, it also means they’re more coalition-able,” Wells says. He points out that there’s already much less objection from Labour about working with the Lib Dems compared to the Greens, who Burnham this week threatened to can local power-sharing agreements with amid a row over anti-semitism.
“There is a strategic advantage to them in terms of not offending people, but there’s also a strategic weakness in not defining yourself very clearly,” he says.
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