ORLEANS, France  — Far-right leader Marine Le Pen shed her anti-establishment radicalism on Sunday to portray herself as the guardian of France in her first presidential campaign rally in Orléans, south of Paris.

With polls showing her as the front-runner ahead of the scheduled April 2027 presidential election, Le Pen sought to reassure voters by promising to safeguard France as the country seethes with social unrest and stares down a looming debt crisis.

“Even if today the words that spring to mind are ruin, decline … riots and even chaos … we believe in our people and in France,” she said.

In a speech lasting over an hour, Le Pen told thousands of supporters that she was not aiming for a “revolution” but rather “a real change in power” that would spark a new “Renaissance” in the country.

“We’re not saying: It was better before,” she said. “We say: It was good before and it will be better tomorrow.”

Le Pen also played her usual refrains, promising to restore public order in France, strengthen the country’s borders and expel undocumented migrants if she came to power.

Le Pen and her allies have spent days pushing back against accusations by rivals that the far-right National Rally has helped deepen divisions in France amid the turmoil and disorder sparked by recent student protests. In her address, the four-time presidential candidate refrained from attacking political opponents and pitched her party as the one offering French citizens a brighter future.

“My protective vision will benefit all,” she said.

The eurozone’s second-largest economy is facing a cocktail of crises including cost-of-living protests, difficulties adopting a state budget and a spiraling debt and deficit. The dire situation has spooked the markets, with France’s borrowing costs climbing above 5% last week for the first time since 2002.

According to a senior National Rally official, Le Pen wanted to use her speech to cast herself in a presidential role and to reassure voters hesitant about supporting her. “People mostly agree with our ideas, but some still think it’s a gamble to vote for us,” the official said.

Tensions overflowing

Le Pen’s rally was also a show of force, with over 8,500 supporters gathering in a conference hall in Orléans, many carrying French flags and chanting “Marine, présidente!”

According to POLITICO’s most recent Poll of Polls from mid-October, if the election were held today Le Pen would get 34% of the vote compared to 16% for center-right candidate Edouard Philippe and 15% for Jean-Luc Mélenchon, representing the far left. Most polls have Le Pen winning in a run-off round if no candidate wins a majority in the first round.

Leaders of the far-right party staged a two-day conference in Orléans over the weekend under high security, with heightened police checks and body searches. On Saturday thousands of left-wing demonstrators gathered to oppose the rise of the far right in the center of Paris, while across the country protests attracted hundreds of thousands of people, a week after looting and riots marred rallies across France.

“France is plunging into real violence, which will become out of control if the state doesn’t take control,” said National Rally President Jordan Bardella, addressing the crowd before Le Pen’s speech.

“The National Rally appears to be the only solution to allow the return of order and return of authority.”

France was already reeling after a man randomly opened fire on passers-by in the Paris suburb of Trappes on Friday, killing one person and injuring five, including a girl of 12. French President Emmanuel Macron deplored the incident as “a racist terrorist attack.”

Socialist Party leader Olivier Faure said on Sunday that the National Rally carried “a heavy responsibility” for the Trappes attack because it had created “a mood … suggesting that we are being invaded, that there’s a sort of great replacement.”

The National Rally pushed back on the charges, and instead accused the far left of encouraging the violence.

Sarah Paillou contributed reporting.

Ce week-end, Marine le Pen lance officiellement sa campagne dans le Loiret. L’occasion pour elle de faire une démonstration de forces – 10 000 sympathisants sont attendus. Ses opposants se sont également donné rendez-vous sur place. Entre 20 000 à 30 000 personnes, représentant tous les partis de gauche, devraient défiler sur place, selon le gouvernement. Que va dire Marine le Pen dans son discours ? Doit-on s’attendre, en marge de l’événement, à des débordements ? Pour tout commentaire, écrivez-nous sur Whatsapp au +32 49 07 69 41

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PARIS — Looting and rioting across France over the weekend are threatening to reshape the contours of the French presidential race.

Far-right front-runner Marine Le Pen is seizing on the crisis to cast herself as the candidate of law and order, but there are risks for her too. Many voters see her as a highly divisive leader whose 2027 victory would only deepen the societal fault lines exposed by the riots.

Far-left firebrand Jean-Luc Mélenchon, widely tipped to challenge Le Pen in the second round next year, is also treading carefully as rivals accuse him of encouraging the rage on the streets that has morphed into pillaging and arson.

For the flailing centrists, there is now an opportunity to finally make an impression in the contest — but only if they can distance themselves from President Emmanuel Macron, who is seen as fluffing his response to the nationwide wave of vandalism.

Overall, it’s pushing the election into uncharted waters.

“If there’s a real crisis, you don’t know where it could lead,” said one conservative who holds regular talks with officials from the far-right National Rally and was granted anonymity to discuss the subject.

Where does that leave the candidates? POLITICO takes a look at the strategic calculus for the leading runners across the political spectrum.

Marine Le Pen, on the up

Le Pen is receiving an immediate boost. Even her rivals admit it.

This Saturday’s unrest “benefits the far right,” said center-right European Member of Parliament Nathalie Loiseau. “They are circling around the violence like vultures,” she said in an interview.

Le Pen has already cast herself as the alternative president, delivering a sober address to the nation Sunday and pitching herself as the candidate of a “pacified France.”

Jordan Bardella, president of her National Rally party, upped the ante on the protests and pitched his party as the only one able to restore order, dialing up fears about the pillaging. The rioters “will soon be breaking into people’s homes,” he said at a press conference in Paris. “The authorities are collapsing.”

But excessive, prolonged chaos could backfire on a party long seen as instigating civil unrest. And the topic is already becoming a talking point inside the National Rally.

“Some say that this shows that there will be riots if the National Rally comes to power,” said Charles-Henri Gallois, one of Bardella’s advisers. “But I don’t believe it.”

According to the conservative quoted above, periods of instability can lead the French to turn their backs on anti-establishment figures and prefer traditional veterans.

“You could end up with [Charles] De Gaulle on the Champs-Elysées,” the official said, referring to how the first president of the Fifth Republic emerged with extra powers after the 1958 crisis that roiled the nation.

Jean-Luc Mélenchon, on the defensive

Far-left leader Mélenchon is in a bind as he walks a tightrope between supporting protesters and distancing himself from violence.

The France Unbowed party supported the school protests in the run-up to last weekend’s riots, and far-left elected officials have played a prominent role in the blockades, either in decrying alleged police violence or in support of the protesters.

In the battle for leadership between Mélenchon and center-left MEP Raphaël Glucksmann, the former grabbed the limelight.

But the violence this weekend could end up marginalizing the far left, especially with the government and political rivals accusing them of fueling the unrest. “They tried to aggravate the situation,” Loiseau said.

According to a poll from Cluster 17 for POLITICO, the 75-year-old far-left firebrand is already one of the most commonly “rejected” politicians in France.

On Monday, Mélenchon tried to turn the tables, firing back at the government, saying the prime minister was fomenting “disorder” with his accusations that ultra-left groups were trying to disrupt the election.

Edouard Philippe, looking for a reset

For the center-right presidential hopeful Philippe, the riots aren’t good news either. He has to work hard to distance himself from his old boss, President Emmanuel Macron, who is seen as failing to respond sufficiently to the crisis. (Philippe was Macron’s first prime minister.)

But the protests could also be his opportunity to show some character, and rebut critics who think his campaign lacks energy and panache. Philippe, the best-placed centrist candidate to beat the far-right, has seen his poll ratings stall in recent months and has struggled to cut through the campaign noise.

A break with Macron might just be what he needs.

Philippe came out hard against the president after he failed to announce any measures during his primetime television address Sunday. “I would have preferred… decisions and initiatives to restore order,” he wrote online. “This country needs someone in command.”

But the former PM will need to stick his neck out more if he’s going to make an impact.

“He’s very presidential, and it’s a posture that suits him,” said one of Macron’s ministers, who, like others cited here, was granted anonymity to speak candidly.

“But he’s not saying anything. What’s his measure? Why doesn’t he say we need to call a state of emergency? “

Raphaël Glucksmann, on the offensive

For the MEP Raphaël Glucksmann, the protests are a trial by fire after he won the Socialist Party primary contest earlier this month and became the center-left’s presidential candidate.

On Monday, Glucksmann tried to strike a very different note from Mélenchon, telling reporters that “it’s unbearable … that hordes of looters should attack symbols of the state.”

Sensing a chink in the far-left leader’s armor, he accused the leader of France Unbowed of being “a springboard” for Le Pen, who would be “the beneficiary of the chaos.”

Glucksmann has seen his poll ratings go up since he won the Socialist Party primary outright, reaching 15% to 16.5% according to a recent Elabe poll — in a similar territory to Mélenchon and Philippe.

But the minister quoted above expected Glucksmann to peak soon.

“He can only take voters away from Mélenchon,” the minister said. “A left-wing voter may vote for the right, but a right-wing voter won’t vote for the left anytime soon,” the person said.

Emmanuel Macron, on the skids

Macron is being roasted for going on television to address the nation and announce … absolutely nothing.

On Sunday, Macron promised that rioters who “destroyed” things would have to pay the price and called for “clear answers” on why the protests turned violent.

“Fucking hell, it’s rubbish,” said one former senior government official.

Macron has cultivated an image of being above the fray and went on a trip to the Middle East on Monday. But his failure to respond to the violence risks damaging his final months in power. “It’s out of touch,” a regional official said.

According to the minister quoted above, Macron should have let his prime minister do the talking but instead was encouraged to make “a speech to calm” the situation.

On Monday, Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu tried to get a grip on the situation, announcing localized curfews, movement restrictions, and bans on public demonstrations.

But another day of demonstrations has already been announced for next Saturday, sparking fears the protests will snowball into sustained protests similar to the Yellow Vests movement in 2018 and 2019.

If so, this chaos will be a defining element of the 2027 campaign.

MADRID — Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s chances of staging a poll-defying election comeback have suffered a serious dent.

Spain’s notoriously fragmented far left has failed to unite on a single ticket ahead of November’s election, which many Sánchez supporters had hoped would mobilize voters, capitalize on the country’s electoral system and increase the prime minister’s hopes of forming a new government.

The left-wing disarray leaves Spain’s conservative People’s Party, led by Alberto Núñez Feijóo, on track to claim power after eight years of socialist rule in Madrid, as a broader tilt to the right reshapes European politics.

With negotiations stuttering, an exasperated Mónica García, health minister and candidate for the left-wing Broad Front, warned on social media that the left risked getting “trapped in egos, worries, internal disputes and electoral and/or personal calculations that are good for nobody except the right.” 

The Broad Front took shape shortly after the election was called in order to bring together several parties to the left of Sánchez. But after several days of frantic discussions, prominent left-wing party Podemos did not join the united ticket — except in the Canary Islands and the Valencia region — hampering the far left’s overall electoral prospects.

“The only way for [Sánchez] to be able to govern again is for there to be a strong presence to the left of the Socialists,” said Kiko Llaneras, polling analyst for media outlet El País, who pointed out that “the Broad Front isn’t actually that broad.”

He added, “The big question is whether this new movement will be strong enough to allow the left to form a majority — and that’s going to be very difficult.”

Defying the odds

The Broad Front is made up of Sumar, the junior partner in the current Socialist-led government; the Catalan Comuns; the communist-led United Left (IU); Más Madrid; and an array of regional left-wing parties. The lead candidate of the ticket will be Ada Colau, the former mayor of Barcelona.

Spain’s electoral system rewards united platforms, and the Broad Front is not as inclusive as a similar alliance — created in 2023 and including Podemos — which helped Sánchez defy the odds and form a new administration after the last election.

Sumar, the dominant force in the 2026 alliance, has seen its vote share more than halved since 2023 to 5%, according to POLITICO’s Poll of Polls.

“Junior partners in any coalition tend to suffer because it’s difficult for them to implement their agenda and they tend to be less visible,” said Pablo Simón, a political scientist at Madrid’s Carlos III University.

Sumar has been lacking a high-profile figurehead. Yolanda Díaz, the labor minister and deputy prime minister who was once touted as a potential prime minister-in-waiting, is not running in the election.

The Broad Front ticket, Simón said, “is better than if there had been no agreement at all, but it’s still looking tough for them.”

Amid a last-minute scramble leading up to Friday’s midnight deadline for the registration of electoral alliances, hopes that Podemos, polling at around 3%, might join the ticket were dashed as talks ran aground over candidacies and the left-wing party’s concerns about being subsumed by the alliance. 

Speaking the next day, Colau apologized to voters on the left for the lack of a deal with Podemos and, referring to the fraught negotiations, said that “if someone doesn’t want to sit down at a table, you can’t force them.”

‘We have failed’

Sánchez is banking on a solid performance by his socialists and a resurgence by Sumar and its fellow parties to prevent what most polls suggest is a virtual inevitability: The People’s Party forming a coalition government with the far-right Vox, which has enjoyed a surge thanks to its aggressive stance on immigration.

But there was further disappointment on the left last week — beyond Podemos not appearing in the Broad Front — when hopes of an even wider ticket were dashed.

Gabriel Rufián, the charismatic parliamentary spokesperson for the Catalan Republican Left (ERC), had led a debate in recent months on the need for unprecedented unity on the left going into the next election in order to prevent the far right from entering government. The prospect of Rufián, who has a strong appeal outside Catalonia, leading a joint ticket had stirred excitement among voters.

However, restricted by his own pro-independence ERC, Rufián said he would be running only for that party, ruling him out of involvement in the kind of ambitious, nationwide ticket he had raised hopes of leading. 

“We have failed and, specifically, I have failed,” he said.

Juan Carlos Monedero, a co-founder of Podemos and former senior figure in the party, told POLITICO that “there is no one who has the authority to make a success of [a united left]. Rufián flirted with it, but in the end his loyalty to ERC was more important.”

Polling analyst Llaneras said that, as well as potentially mobilizing voters, greater unity would have provided a boost to the parties to the left of the socialists because of the country’s electoral framework.

“When it comes to converting votes into seats in Spain it’s very hard to do that with less than 10% of the vote,” he said. “Because the electoral districts in Spain are small, dividing the vote means losing a lot of representation. In districts where there are six or seven seats, you can miss out on all of them.”

Aitor Hernández-Morales contributed to this article.

MADRID — Parties on Spain’s far left have failed to reach an agreement to run on a joint ticket in the November 29 election, in a setback to Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, who would need their support to form a new governing majority.

The Frente Amplio (or Broad Front), an alliance of several parties to the left of Sánchez’s Socialist Party, had hoped to recruit Podemos, which was a junior partner in government from 2020 to 2023. But with the deadline for electoral coalitions falling at midnight on Friday, the parties were unable to reach a nationwide accord.

Instead, the Broad Front and Podemos will run together only in the Canary Islands and the Valencia region.

The Broad Front is made up of Sumar, the current junior partner in the Socialist-led government, the Catalan Comuns, the Communist-led United Left and Más Madrid. Some smaller local parties have also joined the ticket. The lead candidate for prime minister will be Ada Colau, the former mayor of Barcelona.

Sumar, the dominant force in the alliance, has seen its vote share more than halve since 2023, to 5%, according to POLITICO’s Poll of Polls.

Although Podemos has only been polling at 3%, its full involvement in the Broad Front would have meant a greater overall share of seats for the far left, according to analysts. 

The PSOE has been trailing the conservative People’s Party and would need a strong performance by parties to its left in order to keep Sánchez in office. The more likely scenario, polls show, is that the PP will be able to form a majority with the far-right Vox, whose support has been rising.

“The Spanish left is caught up in a game of thrones that demobilizes [voters],” said Irene de Miguel, coordinator of Podemos in the western region of Extremadura, as the deadline loomed.