BRUSSELS — The Netherlands and Spain on Friday submitted candidates to succeed Christine Lagarde, who steps down as president of the European Central Bank on Feb. 7.

Pablo Hernández de Cos, a former governor of Spain’s central bank, and the Netherlands’ Klaas Knot, a former president of the Dutch central bank, were the only candidates to emerge after the 5 p.m. deadline, as expected.

Their candidacies are part of a larger game of musical chairs that includes France and Germany, as Europe’s four economic powerhouses negotiate how to secure their seats on the ECB’s executive board.

The ECB is one of the most powerful institutions in Europe, responsible for setting interest rates to keep prices stable at 2% over the medium-term. The six-person executive board oversees the central bank’s day-to-day activities and an army of economists who scrutinize financial markets and the economy at large.

Berlin is determined to hold onto the seat that German economist Isabel Schnabel will vacate on Jan. 3, when she leaves the ECB for a job at the International Monetary Fund. Paris, meanwhile, is targeting the ECB’s chief economist role once the Irish incumbent Philip Lane concludes his eight-year term on May 31.

Eurozone finance ministers will take stock of the ECB shuffling at Monday’s Eurogroup meeting in Brussels. Neither Hernández de Cos nor Knot are scheduled to attend the closed-door meeting. But their national ministers will talk up their respective compatriots.

Diplomats expect EU leaders to engage in horse trading at an informal summit in Dublin at the end of next week. The deadline for candidates to replace Schnabel is on Nov. 27.

FRANKFURT — The race to replace Christine Lagarde has reached fever pitch after she officially announced her intention to depart the European Central Bank in February next year.

The two leading contenders are familiar figures from the eurozone’s central banking circuit: Spain’s Pablo Hernández de Cos, a measured economist with a reputation for quiet authority, and Dutchman Klaas Knot, a former hawk whose years on the ECB’s governing council left a more complicated legacy.

A recent Bloomberg survey of economists gives de Cos a slender lead: 12 respondents picked him, against nine for Knot. The survey offers a snapshot of expert preferences, not a forecast of the outcome. EU leaders will make the appointment, with national claims and other ECB vacancies likely to shape negotiations.

The choices will also be influenced by horse trading over what will likely be a package deal with the opportunity to fill the two executive board seats that will be vacant in January and May.

Softly spoken de Cos

An economist with a Ph.D. from the University of Madrid, de Cos joined the Bank of Spain in 1997, moved to Frankfurt in 2004 to be an adviser to the ECB’s executive board, before returning to the Spanish central bank. He rose through the ranks to become governor, serving from 2018 to 2024. In this role he restored the Bank of Spain’s reputation after a series of missteps before and during the financial crisis.

His achievement was implicitly acknowledged by his appointment to two terms as chair of the Basel Committee for Banking Supervision, the global standard-setter for bank regulation. He now runs the Bank for International Settlements, the institution often described as the central bankers’ central bank.

His style is low-key: a modest dove, meaning that he is more attentive than hawks to growth and employment alongside inflation. Still, when inflation surged in 2022, de Cos backed the ECB’s shift toward higher rates. Equally, he has little time for governments that put off essential pension system reforms, having published a sharp critique of the Pedro Sanchez government while at the Bank of Spain. 

His case

De Cos has long been groomed by Lagarde’s predecessor Mario Draghi, whose voice continues to carry a heavy weight in European economic debates and may influence the preference of some countries as they mull who to place at the top of the Frankfurt institution.

As France faces mounting debt pressures, de Cos’ experience as a senior Bank of Spain economist during the eurozone crisis could convince EU governments that he is the best fit. Galo Nuño, vice dean and professor of economics at IE University and a former alternate member of the ECB governing council, called it “a huge advantage.”

His challenges

The political arithmetic, however, could work against the Spaniard. France is keen to secure the role of the ECB chief economist, which becomes vacant in May 2027. Some officials may want to avoid pairing the ECB presidency and chief economist roles with candidates from highly indebted countries.

With inflation above target and the eurozone having lived through a severe inflation shock in 2022, some leaders may prefer a candidate with a more clearly hawkish record.

Enter: Klaas Knot.  

Knot: Hawk turned pragmatist

Knot also has a strong economic background, boasting a Ph.D. from the University of Groningen. After early positions at the Dutch central bank, De Nederlandsche Bank, and the International Monetary Fund, he moved into senior roles at the Dutch Finance Ministry and returned to the DNB, which he led from 2011 to 2025. He has also chaired the Financial Stability Board, the global body tasked with monitoring risks to the financial system.

For much of Draghi’s presidency, Knot was a staunch hawk who publicly challenged the ECB’s stimulus measures. In September 2019, he called the package “disproportionate.”

His relationship with the ECB’s leadership was more harmonious under Lagarde. He supported both her pandemic crisis response package, PEPP, as well as the Transmission Protection Mechanism — a potentially more radical tool than any brought in under Draghi which allows the ECB to buy up unlimited debt of a single EU member country.

Knot remained an early advocate of raising rates when inflation took off but came to be described as a pragmatic hawk and team player.

His case

Supporters argue that a hawkish president could help the ECB support Southern European economies during a debt crisis while reassuring consumers and investors that the bank remains committed to price stability.

Knot’s former role as chair of the G20’s Financial Stability Board could also boost his case. Berenberg chief economist Holger Schmieding argued that “the question who may be best placed to deal with potential financial turbulences will likely play a key role in the choice of new ECB leaders.” This role was also Draghi’s springboard.

His challenges

Germany’s ambitions could be a stumbling block, as Northern European hawks will have had their turn with Knot. EFG Bank chief economist Stefan Gerlach said: “If Knot is appointed, then Germany can hardly argue that it is its turn to appoint the president after him.”

Some veteran governors still view Knot’s public break with Draghi as disloyal.

What happens now?

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said a decision would be taken by year-end, with eurozone ministers set to gather under the banner of the European Council in mid-December.

When it comes who will win the race, the history could cut both ways.

Nuño, who has seen both candidates in action, said each brings monetary-policy expertise and the political pragmatism needed to manage the challenges ahead.

The choice, then, will turn on which mix of policy temperament and political arithmetic EU leaders want at the top.

Christine Lagarde said she will step down as president of the European Central Bank on Feb. 7, creating a vacancy at the top of one of Europe’s most powerful institutions and fueling further speculation about a possible return to French politics.

An official familiar with Lagarde’s thinking, granted anonymity to discuss a sensitive matter, said she made her move now, almost a full year before the end of her term, to have “greater freedom to express her views and to engage in non-monetary matters, because she cannot remain neutral when she sees the developments taking place in her own country and in the world.”

The ECB said in a statement only that Lagarde had informed European Council President António Costa of the decision earlier on Thursday.

The announcement clears the way for a package deal among EU capitals over at least three appointments to the ECB’s six-strong Executive Board. Isabel Schnabel, head of the Bank’s markets department, is due to leave in January to take a senior role at the International Monetary Fund, while Philip Lane is due to depart the influential chief economist’s position in May.

Negotiations over the appointments are likely to be intense, given the ECB’s vital influence in international markets, and the never-ending pressure on European government finances. Former Dutch central bank chief Klaas Knot and Spain’s Pablo Hernández de Cos, who heads the Bank for International Settlements, are seen as the two frontrunners in the race for the top job.  German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said a decision would be taken by year-end.

The timing of the announcement means that President Emmanuel Macron will have a say in choosing Lagarde’s successor before he himself leaves office next spring. Marine Le Pen, the National Rally leader and a longtime critic of the EU, is currently well ahead in the polls to win the French presidency, and may take a radically different view about who should lead the ECB. 

“The EU is trying to guard at least somewhat against the risk that right-wing Marine Le Pen may win the French presidential election,” said Berenberg Bank’s head of research Holger Schmieding. 

Jean-Luc Mélenchon, leader of the hard-left France Unbowed party, protested that Macron had already engineered a similar situation at the Bank of France, where François Villeroy de Galhau’s early departure “allowed Macron to install his assistant,” Emmanuel Moulin, as governor.

Speculation has long swirled that Lagarde, formerly finance minister under President Nicolas Sarkozy, may throw herself back into French politics. She has stressed the need for “a pro-European voice” in the French elections, while still being consistently coy about running herself. Thursday’s announcement comes at a time when candidates from mainstream camps in France are all losing ground to Mélenchon, who wants the ECB to “set fire” to its French debt holdings. None looks likely to make the final round of the presidential election in May.

Whoever follows her as ECB president will inherit an increasingly tense situation in Europe’s bond markets, where borrowing costs are hitting their highest level in years due to a cocktail of war-fueled inflation, demographics and competition from capital from Big Tech companies chasing AI-related riches. 

The problems are particularly acute in France, the eurozone’s second-largest economy, which faces a political impasse and mounting pressure over its public debt.  

Lagarde succeeded Mario Draghi at the ECB in 2019, after leading the International Monetary Fund and, in her time in office, has been a stalwart of the centrist mainstream that is now being squeezed by both wings of the political spectrum across Europe. 

“Christine Lagarde has led the European Central Bank through difficult times,” German finance minister Lars Klingbeil said in a statement.  “Under her leadership, the ECB has kept the euro stable even during crises: when the coronavirus pandemic hit Europe hard, when Russia invaded Ukraine, and most recently in the face of the economic shocks caused by the war in Iran.”

“Christine Lagarde’s tenure at the helm of the ECB has only strengthened the confidence in the European single currency,” Eurogroup President Kyriakos Pierrakakis said in a statement, promising to give the council a “swift” recommendation on the succession to heads of government.

The ECB gave no  details about Lagarde’s plans after leaving Frankfurt. However, she has talked to the World Economic Forum about taking over as chair, according to its founder Klaus Schwab. Reuters reported that the organizer of Davos could announce her appointment as early as this month.  

“I leave this institution with a sense of good work done, and an ECB that is fit for the future,” Lagarde said in a video post on LinkedIn.

This story has been updated. Giorgio Leali contributed reporting.