Having more than a million young people not in education, employment or training is an “economic catastrophe” according to the prime minister. So, what will the government do about it?

With Alan Milburn’s long-awaited review due next month, is Andy Burnham laying the groundwork for tougher benefit conditions in the budget – as ministers look to rein in the spiralling welfare bill?

Sam Coates and Anne McElvoy examine how the report’s findings could complicate the government’s plans for reform.

Plus, Anne has the latest on the protests in France and a stark warning over the political cost of attempting to shrink the size of the state.

Donald Trump’s latest moves on Russia and Ukraine have alarmed Kyiv and European capitals alike. But rather than scrambling to contain the fallout, EU leaders are keeping their cool. Zoya Sheftalovich and Nick Vinocur explore Europe’s strategy for weathering Trump’s midterm storm — and what it means for Ukraine.

Then, France reels from a weekend of violent protests, with more than 1,800 arrests and widespread destruction. As political leaders trade accusations, we look at how the unrest is shaping the battle ahead of the 2027 presidential election from Paris.

Plus, hackers turn supermarket fridges into heaters, exposing some surprisingly basic cybersecurity vulnerabilities.

If you have a question or comment, don’t hesitate! Message us on our WhatsApp here or at +32 491 05 06 29.

Ein mögliches rot-grün-rotes Bündnis in Berlin schlägt bundespolitisch hohe Wellen. Während z.B. Grünen-Chef Felix Banaszak vor radikalen Kräften warnt und die Tür zur CDU taktisch offen halten will, ist Friedrich Merz wiederum hart und unerbittlich im Ton gegenüber Grünen und der SPD, wenn es um die Gespräche mit radikalen linken Kräften geht. Rasmus Buchsteiner ordnet ein, wie nun auch in der SPD der Widerstand wächst und Parteichef Lars Klingbeil sich derweil zurückhält.

Die Junge Union fordert derweil drastische Konsequenzen: Eine künftige Berliner Landesregierung soll z.B. von Geheimdienstinformationen des Bundes abgeschnitten werden. Im 200-Sekunden-Interview erklärt der CDU-Abgeordnete Johannes Volkmann, warum er Teile der Berliner Linken als Sicherheitsrisiko sieht und eine politische Ächtung der Partei verlangt.

Auf internationaler Bühne sorgt die Kehrtwende der USA für Entsetzen, nachdem Donald Trump die Sanktionen gegen Russlands Schattenflotte auf Eis gelegt hat. Hans von der Burchard analysiert, wie dieser Schritt Europa sicherheitspolitisch erneut herausfordert und welche Folgen der Wegfall amerikanischer Unterstützung für die Ukraine im nahenden Winter haben könnte.

Das Berlin Playbook als Podcast gibt es jeden Morgen ab 5 Uhr. Rixa Fürsen, Maximilian Stascheit und das POLITICO-Team liefern Politik zum Hören – kompakt, international, hintergründig.

Für alle Hauptstadt-Profis: Der Berlin Playbook-Newsletter bietet jeden Morgen die wichtigsten Themen und Einordnungen. Jetzt kostenlos abonnieren.

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Deutschland muss Wachstum wieder stärker ins Zentrum seiner Wirtschaftspolitik rücken. Doch bevor wir darüber sprechen, wo wir 2030 sein wollen, sollten wir genau hinschauen, wo unsere Unternehmen heute stehen.

Seit mehr als zwei Jahren beobachten wir mit dem DATEV Mittelstandsindex eine wirtschaftliche Entwicklung, die weniger einem plötzlichen Einbruch als einer schleichenden Erschöpfung gleicht. Die Umsätze kommen nicht nachhaltig in Schwung, während Löhne und andere Kosten weiter steigen. Die Beschäftigung, lange ein Stabilitätsanker des Mittelstands, gerät zunehmend unter Druck. Der Mittelstand hält sich, aber er ist nicht im Aufschwung.

Wenn Erlöse über einen langen Zeitraum kaum wachsen und gleichzeitig die Kosten steigen, schrumpfen die Spielräume für das, was unser Land dringend braucht: Investitionen und wirtschaftliche Erneuerung. Deshalb müssen wir die Bedingungen verbessern, unter denen wirtschaftliche Dynamik entstehen kann.

Investitionen schaffen Zukunft

Viele Unternehmen konzentrieren unter den aktuellen Rahmenbedingungen ihre verfügbaren Mittel zunehmend darauf, den Bestand zu sichern. Investiert wird in Ersatz und Erhalt, während Erweiterungen, neue Technologien oder zusätzliche Kapazitäten schwieriger zu finanzieren sind. Das hat langfristige Konsequenzen. Digitalisierung, künstliche Intelligenz, klimaneutrale Produktion oder neue Geschäftsmodelle entstehen nicht allein durch politische Zielsetzungen. Sie müssen in Unternehmen konkret umgesetzt und finanziert werden. Dafür brauchen Unternehmen wirtschaftlichen Spielraum.

Wenn Erlöse über einen langen Zeitraum kaum wachsen und gleichzeitig die Kosten steigen, schrumpfen die Spielräume für das, was unser Land dringend braucht: Investitionen und wirtschaftliche Erneuerung.

Gerade aus kleinen, dynamischen Unternehmen können disruptive Innovationen und damit die großen Unternehmen von morgen entstehen. Doch Unternehmen können Risiken nur eingehen, wenn sie über ausreichende Reserven verfügen und darauf vertrauen können, dass sich langfristige Investitionen am Standort Deutschland lohnen. Statt unternehmerische Dynamik vor allem mit neuen Förderprogrammen erzeugen zu wollen, sollten wir Unternehmen wieder mehr Raum, bessere Rahmenbedingungen und mehr Planungssicherheit für eigene Entscheidungen geben.

Deutschland braucht einen schlankeren Staat

Zu guten Standortbedingungen gehört auch ein leistungsfähiger Staat. Genehmigungsverfahren, Berichtspflichten, Steuerverfahren und Verwaltungsprozesse kosten Zeit und binden Personal. Das trifft auch große Konzerne, kleine und mittlere Unternehmen aber besonders stark, weil sie regulatorische Anforderungen nicht auf große Fachabteilungen verteilen können.

Gleichzeitig ist der Staat selbst immer größer geworden. 2025 lag die Staatsquote bei über 50 Prozent. Das ist keine Kennzahl, mit der wir uns abfinden sollten. Deutschland braucht einen schlankeren Staat – nicht als Selbstzweck, sondern weil ein Staat, der immer mehr Ressourcen bindet, diese Mittel und Arbeitskräfte dem privaten Sektor entzieht. Wir sollten eine unbequeme Wahrheit aussprechen: Deutschland hat kein Einnahmenproblem. Die entscheidende Frage ist, was wir mit den vorhandenen Mitteln machen und welche Aufgaben der Staat tatsächlich übernehmen muss. Immer neue Einnahmen zu mobilisieren, während Unternehmen unter hohen Kosten und schwachen Umsätzen leiden, ist keine Wachstumsstrategie.

Das gilt auch für zusätzliche steuerliche Belastungen. Ein höherer Spitzensteuersatz trifft nicht nur gutverdienende Privatpersonen. Er trifft unmittelbar viele mittelständische Unternehmen. Für Personengesellschaften und Einzelunternehmen ist die Einkommensteuer die Unternehmenssteuer. Wer diesen Unternehmen zusätzliche Mittel entzieht, darf sich nicht wundern, wenn anschließend das Geld für Investitionen fehlt.

Europa darf deshalb nicht nur ein großer regulierter Markt sein. Es muss auch ein großer Markt für Wachstum werden.

Auch der Staat selbst steht vor dem demografischen Wandel. Digitalisierung und künstliche Intelligenz bieten die Chance, staatliche Aufgaben künftig effizienter zu erfüllen. Ein schlankerer Staat darf dabei kein schwächerer Staat sein. Er muss sich auf seine Aufgaben konzentrieren und diese schneller und verlässlicher erfüllen.

Europa muss Wachstum ermöglichen

Deutschland kann seine wirtschaftliche Stärke dauerhaft nur in einem wirtschaftlich starken Europa sichern. Der europäische Binnenmarkt ist einer unserer größten Vorteile. Im Alltag erleben Unternehmen Europa aber noch zu häufig als fragmentiert. Unterschiedliche Verfahren, zusätzliche Dokumentationspflichten und nationale Sonderwege erschweren grenzüberschreitendes Wachstum. Besonders sichtbar wird das bei jungen, erfolgreichen Unternehmen, die den nächsten Wachstumsschritt gehen wollen. Für sie muss Europa zum gemeinsamen Markt mit besseren Bedingungen werden, um zu wachsen und Kapital für die nächste Entwicklungsstufe mobilisieren zu können.

Europa darf deshalb nicht nur ein großer regulierter Markt sein. Es muss auch ein großer Markt für Wachstum werden. Es muss seine Größe auch als wirtschaftlichen Vorteil nutzen. Dafür müssen nationale Sonderwege abgebaut und Bedingungen geschaffen werden, unter denen aus erfolgreichen Gründungen globale Unternehmen werden können. Sonst riskieren wir, dass Ideen hier entstehen, die daraus resultierende Wertschöpfung aber anderswo wächst.

Widerstandskraft allein reicht nicht

Zwei Jahre DATEV Mittelstandsindex zeigen, wie lange Unternehmen Belastungen auffangen können. Aber eine Volkswirtschaft kann nicht davon leben, dass ihre Unternehmen immer nur widerstandsfähiger werden. Sie braucht neben starken Betrieben auch neue Unternehmen, aus denen die Mittelständler und Weltmarktführer von morgen wachsen können.

Der Mittelstand hat Arbeitsplätze lange gehalten, obwohl die Umsatzentwicklung schwach blieb und die Löhne weiter stiegen. Erst mit Verzögerung ist auch die Beschäftigung unter Druck geraten. Auch viele Unternehmerinnen und Unternehmer absorbieren Belastungen zunächst selbst.

Denn wirtschaftliche Dynamik entsteht in Unternehmen. Geben wir ihnen dafür wieder den nötigen Spielraum.

Gleichzeitig ziehen sich Betriebe aus dem Markt zurück, weil Nachfolge fehlt, Rentabilität sinkt oder die Perspektive nicht mehr ausreicht. Umso wichtiger ist ein Umfeld, in dem Menschen bereit sind, Verantwortung und unternehmerisches Risiko zu übernehmen.

Deutschland 2030 braucht einen Kurswechsel

Bis 2030 werden Digitalisierung, künstliche Intelligenz, demografischer Wandel und geopolitische Veränderungen unsere Wirtschaft tiefgreifend verändern. Die Antwort darauf kann nicht sein, Unternehmen immer neue Belastungen aufzubürden.

Deutschland braucht einen Kurswechsel: weniger Bürokratie und steuerliche Belastung, einen schlankeren und leistungsfähigeren Staat und ein Europa, das seine Stärke als gemeinsamer Markt ausspielt. Der Mittelstand hat in den vergangenen Jahren gezeigt, wie viel Belastung er tragen kann. Das sollte die Politik nicht als Einladung verstehen, ihm noch mehr zuzumuten. Denn wirtschaftliche Dynamik entsteht in Unternehmen. Geben wir ihnen dafür wieder den nötigen Spielraum.

Hinweis

POLITISCHE WERBUNG

• Der Sponsor ist DATEV eG.
• Diese Werbung steht im Zusammenhang mit der wirtschaftspolitischen Debatte über Bürokratieabbau, steuerliche Belastungen, die Rolle des Staates und die Rahmenbedingungen für Unternehmen in Deutschland und Europa.

Weitere Informationen hier.

BRUSSELS — NATO is beginning talks this month on the forces and weapons allies would need to defend against a Russian attack — and how they would pay for them.

The talks will set capability targets for 2029, requiring each of NATO’s 32 member countries to provide specific forces and equipment.

The deadline raises the stakes: European officials have warned that Russia could be ready to attack a NATO country by then.

At the same time, the Trump administration is weighing a sharp reduction in U.S. forces in Europe, which could leave the alliance short of troops and critical capabilities with fewer like refueling aircraft, long-range missiles and intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance assets.

The negotiations will test how much each country is willing to spend, how much Europe can do without the U.S. and whether NATO’s military plans should make greater use of technologies such as robotics and artificial intelligence.

“It’s going to be tough,” said one senior NATO diplomat, who, like others, was granted anonymity to speak freely on the sensitive issue. “Burden sharing, the U.S., how to combine the level of ambition with political priorities … it’s huge.”

NATO allies will begin discussing the broad mandate for the new targets — known as Political Guidance — in the coming days. It’s the first step in a five-part effort called the NATO Defence Planning Process.

“The ambition … is for this to be a transformation cycle and not one that’s just off the shelf,” said French Adm. Pierre Vandier, NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander Transformation and the alliance’s chief for future warfare.

POLITICO spoke to 15 current and former NATO officials and diplomats to get a sense of the five key debates likely to define the negotiations.

1. Deciding on ambition

The most significant issue will be deciding exactly how many troops and military capabilities allies want to provide — known as the level of ambition.

Historically, NATO allies have agreed that beyond the forces needed for major operations, they should have 18 spare brigades — each a unit of about 5,000 soldiers — to carry out smaller crisis-management missions outside alliance territory, like Afghanistan or Kosovo.

But U.S. pressure to hand off more security responsibility to European allies — dubbed NATO 3.0 — could put pressure on allies to reduce or even eliminate requirements for any smaller operations.

Discussions will also cover whether to speed up the process itself in future in response to the furious pace of battlefield innovation, from AI to ground robots. 

Allies are also likely to tackle how to provide conventional military support — like ground troops or aircraft — to nuclear-armed countries like the U.K. and U.S.

“Conventional support … capabilities are absolutely part of the NDPP process,” said Nassima Barrows, NATO’s nuclear policy director, “so that is one of the big messages that we underline as a part of the next [negotiations].”

2. Filling the American gap

Looming over the talks is the Pentagon’s upcoming review of American forces in Europe. Washington earlier this year already pulled assets like strategic bombers, fighter jets, drones, submarines and warships from the pool of forces NATO can draw on.

The review lands in December, midway through the NATO talks, prompting concerns it may delay negotiations. There are worries that the U.S. could pull out assets Europe needs, like heavy transport aircraft.

Washington’s drive to curb its military presence in Europe will set off a scramble among allies to replace its capabilities. That will open discussions on how to share the burden fairly, likely to be very difficult as national budgets are increasingly squeezed.

“Not so long ago, the whole NATO process was … you do the math on what NATO needs, and then when you realize you don’t have everything, the U.S. fills in the gaps,” said Camille Grand, head of the ASD defense lobby and a former senior NATO official. “This is no longer the case.”

One way to tackle that is to shift away from specific weapons requirements to assigning objectives to countries, such as having their forces eliminate Russian command outposts. That could create more flexibility for European allies to who can’t access U.S. weapons like Tomahawk cruise missiles.

“We don’t have to have thousands of Tomahawks … but we can have thousands cheaper, low-cost alternatives,” said Fabrice Pothier, a former NATO policy planning director who is now CEO of the Rasmussen Global consultancy.

3. Regional divides

The focus on Russia is likely to cause friction with allies worried about other threats.

On paper, NATO espouses a “360-degree” approach to security. In practice, the alliance’s focus has shifted eastward since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, and northward in the past year as it set up an Arctic mission (largely in response to pressure from Donald Trump over Greenland).

Some allies would like to see more attention given to the alliance’s southern and southeastern flanks. Issues include Russian mercenary presence in Libya, the potential for weaponized migration and increased submarine activity, alongside drone attacks on vessels in the Black Sea.

“There is too much north,” said a second NATO diplomat. “We should reset.”

4. More drones or more tanks

The drone warfare dominating the frontlines in Ukraine is likely to force a debate on the balance between adding unmanned capabilities and continuing to build up conventional military equipment like tanks and artillery.

Most allies are making plans to increase their use of unmanned systems.

The U.K. this year announced a “hybrid fleet” that leans on autonomous vessels like Type 93 uncrewed underwater vehicles. France has earmarked roughly €8.4 billion for drones and loitering munitions while Germany is establishing its first dedicated drone regiment next year.

Europe’s difficulties in recruiting soldiers also feed into the debate, said Grand. “One thing that is driving everybody in the direction of more unmanned [systems] is we have aging societies — we have a manpower issue.”

Countries also have to figure out how to match Russia’s technological developments without breaking national defense budgets.

Vandier said Russia produces 9 million drones a year, a figure that requires a “pretty radical effort” from the alliance. He suggested one fix could be a subscription-style model for hardware updates to keep weapons systems from becoming obsolete.

5. Learning from Ukraine

Most NATO allies agree that Ukraine contributes to their security thanks to its large and battle-hardened military and its rapid technological developments in air, sea and ground drones, air defenses, missiles, and its advanced Delta battlefield management system.

That has some countries calling for closer military and industrial cooperation, even as others urge caution because the war in Ukraine is different from NATO’s doctrine, which calls for rapid-maneuver warfare, air superiority and standoff precision strikes.

“There are tremendous lessons from the conflict that we need to capture,” NATO’s top commander, U.S. Gen. Alexus Grynkewich, told the European Parliament earlier this month. But “we do not want to fight that kind of war.”

The cyberattack last week that hit hundreds of French supermarket refrigerators had Europeans wondering if the nonstop warnings about AI risks had finally landed in the real world.

They hadn’t — at least, not yet.

Experts say the attack, which forced hundreds of retailers to throw away defrosted food and spoiled milk, was mostly a reminder of the importance of old-school cybersecurity in safeguarding essential goods and services.

The attack is a “typical example” of how “low-key cyber-enabled sabotage can affect very crucial supply for society,” said Ferdinand Gehringer, hybrid threats lead at FTI Consulting. 

It’s arguably the most consequential hack in the European Union this year, with tangible, disruptive real-world repercussions. France’s Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu personally managed the fallout, which prompted coordination and information-sharing at the EU level. 

The perpetrators, whose identity and motives are currently unknown, hacked into digital systems to remotely raise the temperature of refrigerators in supermarkets including Intermarché and Carrefour.

One cybersecurity expert working with Lecornu’s office said the French government held meetings after the attack to try to map all the potentially affected sectors, beyond supermarkets. “We’re in the middle of the flu vaccination campaign,” he said, referring to vaccine storage, which also relies on temperature control solutions, though no such attacks have been registered.

To add to the fear and confusion, supermarkets in the Netherlands and Belgium experienced unrelated cyber incidents that same week. Though there was limited impact in those cases, they were a good example of “how big our reliance is in the food supply chain on IT and network systems,” Dutch food security minister Silvio Erkens told POLITICO. 

The attacks come after citizens and policymakers have spent months being bombarded with warnings about scenarios in which unpredictable advanced artificial intelligence models escape human control.

While most good and bad actors on the internet are increasingly using AI models to increase speed and capacity, cyber experts say the hackers in question in the French case most likely used traditional methods to take advantage of devices needlessly exposed to the internet.

Connecting devices to the internet in this way is “an old-fashioned bad practice,” said Amir Preminger, chief technology officer at Claroty, a cybersecurity company that identified a software flaw in a product made by Danfoss, one of the refrigeration companies targeted by the French hacks. Danfoss fixed that flaw in 2025. 

Food systems

The attacks come at a time when Europe’s food security is already under considerable pressure due to geopolitical insecurity and climate change. The continuing disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz are pushing up fuel and fertilizer prices at a time where farmers struggle with the fallout of extreme drought that caused lower yields in many parts of Europe. These problems are compounded by the blockade of the Black Sea which is fueling the rise of global food prices.

“It is very serious that cyber criminals attack our food systems,” said Else Groen, director general of trade body Independent Retail Europe. She nonetheless stressed that food supply chains are resilient, which reduces the chances that consumer food supply would be endangered — even if such attacks are already a “major blow” for retailers operating on razor-thin margins.

The incidents bring to the fore a long-running problem with so-called operational technology, meaning industrial devices with physical outputs, like refrigeration systems. Critical sectors are packed with these kinds of devices, many of which are old, poorly protected, unnecessarily connected to the Internet, or some combination of the three. They’re also obscure and sometimes forgotten, despite the ramifications if they’re tampered with.  

And last week’s problems are far from solved. French and German cyber authorities warned that attacks were probably still ongoing, and the Greek cyber agency and an industry tracker said after the attack that there were hundreds of devices still connected to the internet.

Preminger too said there are still devices exposed, though he added that the number is declining, and not all are necessarily vulnerable to attack. Another research group found that the number of exposed Danfoss devices had significantly decreased.

Finding a fix

What’s changed with the widespread diffusion of advanced AI models is that cyber attacks are now faster and easier to replicate. Claroty reproduced the original flaws in Danfoss products in 28 minutes at a cost of $6, it said. 

In broad terms, AI makes it easier to carry out many types of cyberattacks and enables attackers to pounce on software flaws more quickly. Financially motivated cybercriminals — who have already spent years extorting businesses and disrupting essential services like hospitals — can use AI to simultaneously launch attacks on multiple targets.

Though the motive for the attacks on French supermarkets remains unknown, it is notable that there was no reported attempt at extortion. The strike did come as Russia ramps up its campaign of hybrid warfare against Europe, and senior EU and European leaders have consistently warned that Moscow could use cyberattacks to disrupt real-world services. Beyond food supplies, AI-enhanced targeting could be aimed at banking, hospitals and the functioning of the internet itself.

Still, these fears of bad human actors using AI should be distinguished from the science-fiction scenarios pushed by so-called AI doomers, in which bots themselves are motivated and able on their own to wipe out humanity.

Digital security experts, including the EU’s own in-house cyber team, are also turning to AI for defense. But it’s not a silver bullet, said Rémi Enjolras, a chief technology officer at Splunk, part of Cisco. Critical industries need to stop “seeing AI as a magical tool that will solve everything and go back to the fundamentals,” he said.

The EU has passed laws intended to force critical industries and product manufacturers to get those fundamentals right. But France, for example, is lagging in implementing such national regulations, and there are few other incentives to get companies to do that difficult and costly work.

Still, the images of empty supermarket shelves could provide a new incentive. “It should serve as a kind of a wake-up call,” Enjolras said.

Émile Marzolf contributed to this report.

The EU heads into a perfect political storm

Last week’s summit gave Brussels a taste of how hard it’s going to be to get a deal on the budget — or anything else.

By SEBASTIAN STARCEVIC
in Brussels

^{Illustration by Natália Delgado/POLITICO}

The EU is already struggling with how to get its largest-ever budget agreed, plug a massive financial hole for Ukraine and navigate geopolitical pressure from the U.S. and China. Now, it also faces being paralyzed by domestic political strife in the countries that collectively make up around 60% of its GDP and population.

“Everybody used to understand that we need to finish … a political agreement by the end of the year,” Cypriot President Nikos Christodoulides told POLITICO in an interview on the sidelines of last week’s European Council, referring to the bloc’s fraught budget negotiations.

But the Spanish election means that will no longer be possible, he said. And next year, “it’s going to be France, Italy” and others going to the polls, Christodoulides added, predicting even more complications for the bloc.

The EU is facing an unprecedented dilemma: Its four biggest economies are all heading into elections or political upheaval, potentially hamstringing the bloc’s ability to get anything done.

Spain will go to the polls next month, with the center right and far right on track to take power. France is changing presidents in April, with polls favoring far-right figurehead Marine Le Pen. The Alternative for Germany is ascendant, putting Friedrich Merz’s chancellorship in doubt. And Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s unusually long-serving government is also heading to an election in 2027.

The consequences are already becoming clear.

The bloc’s latest summit offered an early taste of what lies ahead: After two days of talks, leaders failed to make headway on the €2 trillion budget and instead became embroiled in an unexpectedly bitter row on energy policy. The summit’s conclusions notably omitted any mention of finding consensus on the budget before the end of the year, with member countries resisting a push by European Council President Antonio Costa for an end-2026 deadline, although there are summits scheduled for November and December.

If those meetings fail to produce a deal, then the already fractious talks will spill over into 2027, when electoral battles are likely to loom even larger over negotiations — and governments may be increasingly reluctant to make the compromises needed to reach agreement.

Triple assault

The paralysis Brussels fears as Europe’s election cycle gathers pace is already beginning to take hold, with last week’s summit exposing how difficult it is becoming to forge the compromises the bloc needs.

Rather than strike any big deals (a Franco-German accord on cars was the one exception), the leaders used the gathering to dig in on entrenched positions and seek tactical advantages over rival camps.

The pessimism was palpable, according to six diplomats and officials POLITICO spoke to, with several warning the EU faces sharp headwinds in the coming months. All were granted anonymity to speak freely.

“Next year, it will be worse,” said one senior EU diplomat.

“It’s true, because of this calendar for the elections … in the next year it’ll be much more difficult in the member states and inside the [European] Parliament,” said Carla Tavares, a senior MEP with the Socialists and Democrats and co-lead on budget negotiations.

The bloc’s internal malaise could hardly come at a worse time.

From U.S. President Donald Trump’s undermining of the transatlantic alliance to an ever-widening trade imbalance with China, the EU is facing mounting geopolitical and economic pressures on multiple fronts.

“They seek our division. They want our division,” Belgian Prime Minister Bart De Wever told reporters at a late-night briefing during the summit, not mentioning names but referring to countries to the east and west of Brussels. “And they have, of course, points where they can hurt us.”

Former Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis, now a visiting fellow at Stanford University, was less circumspect. “Now we are under assault from three sides: from the U.S., Russia and China,” he said.

Washington is questioning the old alliances that have underpinned European security for generations. Moscow is waging a shadow war across Europe, from cyberattacks and sabotage to an attempted drone attack at Leipzig airport that Berlin blamed on the Kremlin. Beijing is tightening its grip on critical supply chains and flooding European markets with cheap exports.

Then there’s the Ukraine problem. The country is facing a budget shortfall of $30 billion to $35 billion next year, according to the IMF, with Russia battering its energy infrastructure ahead of a brutal winter. That’s despite the €90 billion the EU already agreed to stump up last year.

Landsbergis said the coming months are looking “extremely dire” for Kyiv. “Everything falls on European shoulders,” he said.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy sounded a grim note at last week’s summit, telling reporters that if Ukraine falls, 20 million Ukrainians will flood into the EU. “Russia is killing us,” he said. “They don’t want to stop.”

One solution to Ukraine’s funding woes could be the €200 billion in Russian assets that have been immobilized indefinitely in Brussels-based financial depository Euroclear. But there is no sign of the EU finding common ground on that front either, with Belgium, which vetoed previous efforts to use the assets to help Ukraine, still refusing to budge.

“Nothing has changed,” Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson said as he exited last week’s summit early.

Other potential solutions, such as issuing more joint debt, will require messy compromises — just as Brussels finds itself with even less room to maneuver.

Who you gonna call?

The EU’s problems go beyond its budget or individual policy files. With the political futures of several of Europe’s most powerful leaders in question, Brussels risks losing the stable alliances and long-serving national heavyweights needed to broker compromises.

“We now have Europe with no obvious leader,” another EU diplomat argued. Commission President Ursula “von der Leyen is powerful. But we do not have a Merkel or Mitterrand.”

French President Emmanuel Macron cannot constitutionally serve a third consecutive term and will have to find new digs in Paris after leaving the Élysée Palace in April. During a closed-door discussion at last week’s summit, Macron admitted he wouldn’t have a political mandate to sign a deal on the budget in his final months in power, four European diplomats said.

Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez is on track for defeat after eight years in power, according to polls. Spaniards will vote on Nov. 29, meaning Sanchez will be in full election mode during EU leaders’ meetings on Nov. 13 and Nov. 26.

Costa, who has stressed the need to reach an agreement on the EU’s budget by the end of 2026 to make sure it’s ready to go by 2028, waved off fears that the bloc’s next spate of elections could get in the way.

“We are living in 27 democracies,” he said on Friday. “More or less every month we have one election. If it’s about elections, we never could approve a new budget.” 

Regardless of the result, Madrid is not expected to form a government until January, which could derail the budget talks, according to two EU diplomats.

It’s anyone’s guess how long German Chancellor Merz has left in office. While the next federal election is not scheduled until 2029, the AfD’s growing strength and his own nosediving popularity complicate how much Merz might be willing to compromise.

Italy, too, is set for elections in October 2027. Another EU diplomat said they did not expect Meloni to wait that long, arguing she could call a vote much earlier.

There could be a sweet spot in January to get the budget over the line, a senior EU official suggested. It may be the last chance to strike a deal before Europe’s political upheaval makes compromise even harder to come by.

So far, the EU’s leaders have simply been “too slow,” said Siegfried Mureșan, the European People’s Party’s co-lead on the budget. “Time is running out.”

Nicholas Vinocur contributed reporting.

BRUSSELS — Europe’s three mainstream political groups must strike a deal to keep out the far right ahead of an election year that could reshape the EU, the head of the liberal Renew Europe group in the European Parliament told POLITICO.

“I’m truly convinced that nobody can afford to let the coalition erode from a very practical point of view because this is the only way to deliver an ambitious and a stronger Europe for our citizens,” said Valérie Hayer, a close ally of French President Emmanuel Macron, adding that there’s “no other way.”

Since the 2024 EU election shifted the Parliament to the right, the conservative European People’s Party — the largest in the assembly — has passed legislation with right-wing and far-right groups, angering its traditional liberal and social democratic allies. Hayer said Renew’s priority ahead of the next EU election, in 2029, is to rebuild the centrist alliance.

Speaking by phone after a gathering of EU liberals ahead of a leaders’ summit on Thursday, Hayer said “we need a strong European platform from the center to deliver for Europeans” on issues such as competitiveness, defense, climate change and decarbonization, especially with major EU countries facing national elections, including Spain in November and Italy, France and Poland in 2027. “We should be prepared for this new cycle of elections.”

To lock in the centrist majority, Hayer wants the three groups to strike a detailed coalition agreement. The EPP has largely voted with its centrist allies during the first half of the current term, but has occasionally turned to the right to pass legislation when disagreements with its traditional partners proved too difficult to bridge.

Hayer said Renew would not back any candidate for Parliament president without first agreeing on a detailed coalition deal. “A majority needs a program before it needs a president, so we need a coalition agreement before any leadership agreement, and no coalition agreement would mean no leadership deal.”

That could force the EPP to the negotiating table, as the conservatives want to get Roberta Metsola reelected for a third term in January. However, the EPP has in the past been reluctant to sign a detailed coalition agreement.

Hayer and the leaders of the EPP (Manfred Weber) and Socialists and Democrats (Iratxe García) already signed a two-page agreement to work with each other after the 2024 EU election, but the EPP has nonetheless voted on laws with far-right groups.

To prevent this, Hayer wants not only leaders but all “key members” of the groups, including vice-chairs, whips and coordinators, to negotiate and endorse the agreement.

“I want us to be very concrete, I want a midterm agreement that binds us to delivery on the budget, on the IAA, for example, on EU Inc.” — referring to the Industrial Accelerator Act (a proposal to steer public procurement and subsidies toward European manufacturers) and a plan to give startups a single set of rules.

She also wants the far right excluded from powerful posts in the Parliament, including vice-presidencies.

Hayer said the centrist leaders had “already discussed” the agreement and expressed confidence it could advance. García has said she is ready to negotiate with the EPP to reach an agreement, although Weber hasn’t publicly commented on the idea.

Hayer wants any candidate for Parliament president to be hands-on to ensure the center holds, because “you can’t say I’ve been elected and then I don’t care about the majority and the people who elected me.” Metsola says she needs to represent the entire hemicycle, but has voiced a preference for majorities built “from the center out.”

Hayer also wants commissioners to “bring the groups together” before proposing new laws, in order that they have “a first discussion and first kind of agreement.”

Asked if she trusted Weber to comply with any deal, Hayer said“we are working together every day” and that any deal “should be done in a fair way and sincere way.”

As for the socialists, she urged them to be “constructive in the negotiations.”

PARIS — President Emmanuel Macron promised that rioters who “destroyed” things will face consequences as he addressed the nation on Sunday after a weekend of massive unrest across France.

Hundreds of thousands of protesters took to the streets nationwide on Saturday, with students joining trade unions and members of the public to protest the cost of living. While thousands protested peacefully, footage of mayhem including public buildings being set on fire, stores being looted and clashes with riot police drew widespread condemnation in France and abroad.

“Those who destroyed must pay; those who looted must reimburse,” Macron said.

The French government has been accused of mismanaging and underestimating the protests, with calls for Interior Minister Laurent Nuñez to resign emerging both on the left and the far right.

According to the latest figures from the French interior ministry, some 2,000 people were arrested during the turmoil. Police, firefighters and demonstrators suffered injuries as the situation unraveled.

Serge Papin, France’s minister for small business, will meet with company reps at the Ministry of Economy tomorrow to assess the damage and suggest assistance for businesses that were affected.

Macron said he was awaiting “clear answers” on why the protests turned violent. The French president accused “troublemakers from far-left splinter groups, joined by numerous delinquents” of engaging in “unbridled violence.”

With six months to go before next year’s presidential election in France, the events of Saturday quickly took on a political dimension.

Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu also accused the “ultra-left” of fomenting the violence, alleging that the France Unbowed movement and its presidential candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon had played an “important role” within a “far-left network” driving the unrest.

Mélenchon, along with left-wing representatives from several other parties, joined Saturday’s protests and encouraged his supporters to attend, although condemning looting and violence. He said accusations that he was responsible for the mayhem were aimed at weakening his presidential bid, and accused Macron of “letting the situation deteriorate” without offering solutions to appease the anger.

Mélenchon is currently in a close race with center-left candidate Raphaël Glucksmann and center-right candidate Edouard Philippe to clinch second place behind far-right frontrunner Marine Le Pen in next year’s election. The top two candidates in the election move to a runoff if no candidate wins a majority of votes in the first round.

“At stake, too, are France’s image, its credibility, and its influence around the world,” Philippe said ahead of Macron’s statement. “These images of violence have consequences that extend far beyond our borders.”

Le Pen and her far-right National Rally have brandished the violent footage to pitch herself as the candidate of an “appeased France.” The National Rally accused Macron and his government of being the “party of chaos,” and Mélenchon’s France Unbowed of “legitimizing violence.”

The protesters had “legitimate social demands,” Le Pen said. “The French people are fed up with being caught between the government’s austerity measures and heavy-handed taxation, and the insurrection activists.”

With the U.S. midterms around the corner on Nov. 3, President Donald Trump seized on the violence to blame migration. “France is burning! The immigration of people from an entirely different world, people with hatred in their hearts, has shattered that once great country,” Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform Sunday afternoon.

90 Prozent des weltweiten Warenhandels laufen über die Meere und genau dort attackiert Russland die westliche Sicherheitsarchitektur. Was oft als harmlose Nadelstiche abgetan wird, entpuppt sich im Schwarzen Meer und in der Ostsee als gezielte hybride Kriegsführung. Wenn Handelsschiffe ins Visier geraten und globale Lieferketten reißen, schlägt das direkt auf die deutsche Wirtschaft und die Preise an der Zapfsäule durch. Darüber spricht Rixa Fürsen mit dem Experten für maritime Sicherheit, Dr. Moritz Brake, in dieser Ausgabe.

Deutschland ist als Exportnation extrem abhängig von sicheren Seewegen, leistet sich aber die kleinste Marine aller Zeiten. Bracke analysiert, warum die deutschen Streitkräfte bei der Abwehr von russischen Schattenschiffen und Sanktionsbrechern rechtlich oft machtlos sind. Wie lässt sich diese eklatante Lücke schließen, bevor die nächste Eskalationsstufe erreicht ist?

Die Illusion der absoluten Sicherheit ist vorbei. Diese Episode zeigt auf, warum der Ruf nach gesellschaftlicher Resilienz mehr ist als nur ein politisches Schlagwort. Ein Blick nach Schweden offenbart, wie sich eine Bevölkerung mental und praktisch auf Krisen vorbereitet und warum die Zeiten der Rundum-sorglos-Mentalität endgültig der Vergangenheit angehören.

Das Berlin Playbook als Podcast gibt es jeden Morgen ab 5 Uhr. Rixa Fürsen, Maximilian Stascheit und das POLITICO-Team liefern Politik zum Hören – kompakt, international, hintergründig.

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French President Emmanuel Macron will “solemnly” address the French people Sunday evening following violent scenes across the country that resulted in hundreds of arrests and millions of euros in damage.

Clashes broke out Saturday in France on the latest day of demonstrations that emerged from last month’s student protests, which had featured school blockades and calls for better study conditions. The movement has since grown into nationwide protests against rising living costs — and has become a political issue as the campaign for next year’s presidential election heats up.

Footage showed widespread looting, burned-out cars and smashed store windows. Rioters set fire to the town hall in Limoges, a city in central France, causing the roof to partially collapse. One demonstrator died after suffering a heart attack.

“More than 2,000 people have been taken into custody,” Interior Minister Laurent Nuñez wrote on X Sunday afternoon. “More than 600 police officers, gendarmes, and firefighters have been injured amid these scenes of violence.”

Before addressing the nation at 8 p.m., Macron will meet Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu and the ministers responsible for handling the crisis.

U.S. President Donald Trump seized on the violence to blame migration. “France is burning! The immigration of people from an entirely different world, people with hatred in their hearts, has shattered that once great country,” Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform Sunday afternoon.

“Close your Borders and take control, before it is too late!” he added.

Earlier in the day, U.S. Vice President JD Vance had called out European leaders: “Western liberals imported the third world into France and other countries in the name of diversity and compassion” but “ignored fundamental questions of assimilation and compatibility.”

He called on Americans to pay attention, as “this is the future congressional Democrats seek for your country.” The U.S. faces crucial midterm elections to both houses of Congress on Nov. 3.

The French government has struggled to deal with the crisis in recent weeks — Lecornu described it as “urban violence” — and is now hoping the student movement will fade due to a two-week school holiday that started Friday.

Guillaume Guérin, the mayor of Limoges, criticized the government’s handling of the demonstrations, saying the national police “simply had no more ammunition left.”

France called on Israeli authorities to take “all necessary measures” to “stop these acts of terror” following an attack by masked Israeli settlers against European diplomats in the West Bank on Saturday.

In a statement issued Sunday, the French Ministry of Foreign Affairs said: “France calls on the Israeli authorities to arrest the perpetrators of this extremely serious assault and bring them to justice.

“Furthermore, the Israeli authorities must take all necessary measures to put an end to these acts of terror and to ensure the safety of civilian populations and diplomatic missions, as they are obligated to do under international law.”

The incident took place in Taybeh, a mainly Christian town north of Jerusalem, where diplomats and other officials from France, Poland and Belgium were watching local people harvest olives. Video footage of the attack showed settlers confronting a convoy of diplomats and a man wearing a French tricolor sash slumped beside a car.

“The mayor of the commune of Aulnoye-Aymeries was violently assaulted by extremist settlers in the West Bank,” French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot said on X, adding that that Israel “must urgently put an end to these criminal acts.”

Belgian Foreign Minister Maxim Prévot said that in addition to the assault on the French mayor, a Belgian vehicle was damaged in the incident. He added that “Israeli authorities must protect Palestinians, ensure the safety of diplomats and journalists, and bring those responsible to justice,” and said Belgium “will continue to press for EU sanctions against those responsible for this violence and those who support them.”

On Sunday morning, an EU spokesperson said that the bloc “strongly condemns” the attacks by violent settlers in the West Bank, “including on European diplomats.”

The spokesperson added: “We take positive note of statements by several Israeli representatives who condemned the attacks but we expect full accountability as well as effective measures to prevent continued acts of violence and violent harassment against Palestinians, including during the ongoing olive harvest season, as well as against journalists.”

Writing on X, the Israel Defense Forces strongly condemned “the severe act of violence that took place in the area of Taybeh, during which diplomatic representatives were attacked by Israeli rioters.”

The IDF added that “according to a preliminary inquiry, no IDF soldiers were present at the scene at the time of the attack”.

However, the office of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu urged caution “before drawing conclusions” from reports of the attack, while noting that “any violence against diplomats is unacceptable.”

Ukraine struck an oil terminal in St. Petersburg Sunday morning in what Russian state media called “one of the biggest drone attacks of the year.”

Alexander Beglov, governor of St. Petersburg, said on Telegram Sunday that the city underwent a “massive” overnight attack from Ukrainian drones. “The Ministry of Emergency Situations continues to extinguish fires at the Petersburg Oil Terminal, the Ruchyi oil depot, and industrial warehouses in the Kolpino district,” he said, adding that one person died and several others were injured in the incident.

The drone strikes come as Kyiv and Moscow ramp up attacks on each other’s infrastructure. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said last week he had ordered the resumption of strikes on Russian oil refineries following a three-day pause after U.S. President Donald Trump declared he had brokered an energy ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia.

Trump repeatedly urged Ukraine to halt its attacks and blamed the country for rising fuel prices — while also calling for Zelenskyy to be replaced as president.

Writing on X Sunday morning, the Ukrainian president highlighted Moscow’s continued attacks on Ukraine. “In total, over this past week, the Russians have attacked Ukraine with almost 2,700 attack drones, 1,700 aerial bombs, and 66 missiles, most of them ballistic,” he wrote, adding that the U.S. “should see that Russia is not taking any reciprocal steps in response to sanctions relief or agreements.”

Separately, Vilnius said that a suspected drone may have self-detonated in Lithuania while on a flight path toward Latvia Sunday morning. A spokesperson for the Lithuanian armed forces said NATO air defense mission fighter jets were scrambled in response to the incident near the Latvian border.

The provenance of the suspected drone is unclear, but Robertas ​Kaunas, Lithuania’s defense minister, said the object was likely a ​drone which had entered the country from Poland, adding that he had proposed a ⁠joint investigation with his Polish counterpart.

Police searches are also underway in eastern Poland after reports of an unidentified object entering the country’s airspace following a Russian attack on Ukraine.

Starlink restrictions hampering Ukraine’s war effort are “a planned operation,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on Saturday.

The satellite service operated by Elon Musk’s SpaceX is still deactivated in Ukraine at speeds over 160 km/h, which prevents some of its drones to intercept high-speed Shahed drones used by Russia, Zelenskyy told reporters in a WhatsApp chat.

He added that Ukraine conducted a test by sending Starlink-equipped vehicules to European Union countries, at speeds over 180 km/h. “Starlink kept working … The conclusion is this: the restrictions are in effect in Ukraine, but they are not in effect in European Union countries. So, this is a planned operation,” Zelenskyy said.

The restrictions have revived questions on Ukraine’s reliance on the satellite system operated by a U.S. company amid escalating tensions between Kyiv and the White House. “This will cost many of us our lives,” an experienced Ukrainian officer told POLITICO and the Axel Springer Global Reporters Network earlier this week.

“We’re reaching out to everyone at the military level, at the Ministry of Defense level, and at the diplomatic level, including to SpaceX. Right now, no one is responding to our military or the Ministry of Defense,” Zelenskyy told reporters.

The European Union is under increasing pressure to provide Ukraine with an alternative to Starlink. But negotiations between Brussels and Kyiv over access to the bloc’s Govsatcom program — which gives participating governments secure communications capabilities— have been stalling. And IRIS², the EU’s in-house planned network to match Starlink, is only expected to come online in 2030.

“The Europeans are now raising the question of alternatives themselves. And they’re already working on them. They’re already making progress, and they’ll succeed in this area. I can already see that,” Zelenskyy said.

SpaceX did not immediately responded to a request for comment.

Earlier on Saturday, Zelenskyy accused Russia of looking to create a blackout across Ukraine, amid attacks on energy infrastructure and the waiver of U.S. sanctions on Moscow.

“Russia is trying to cause a blackout in Ukraine right before winter. Russia is trying to leave millions of our people without electricity and heating. Pressure is needed to stop this,” he said on Telegram.

“An American sanctions blackout, easing pressure on the aggressor, monetary rewards for [Russian President Vladimir] Putin: all of this only encourages him to keep striking,” he added.

The Ukrainian leader’s comments come after Russia carried out strikes on the war-torn country’s energy sector, including power generation and transmission facilities, with more than 320 jet-powered Shahed drones, loitering munitions, cruise and ballistic missiles. Power was reportedly cut for about 1 million people.

They also come as U.S. President Donald Trump signed on Friday an executive order that waived key sanctions on Russia — a decision that Kirill Dmitriev, Putin’s special envoy for investment and economic cooperation, described as “an important and truly historic moment.” Trump’s move comes only a few days after he made a deal with Putin over supplying barrels of diesel, leaving European countries and Ukraine stunned.

“A decision was unfortunately made in America to completely ignore Lindsey Graham’s bill, which was supposed to introduce truly effective pressure on Russia to end this war,” Zelenskyy said. “This bill could have helped a great deal, and it still can! But the law needs to actually work, and every vote for it matters.”

This article was updated. Veronika Melkozerova contributed reporting.

PARIS — A wave of mass protests swept across France Saturday, with dozens of peaceful marches taking place alongside scenes of violent clashes between demonstrators and police forces.

The demonstrations were also a battleground for candidates ahead of next year’s high-stakes presidential election: The far-right’s Marine Le Pen sided with law enforcement while the far-left’s Jean-Luc Mélenchon backed protesters. 

Throughout the day, media reported incidents in the country’s largest cities including Lyon, Bordeaux, Marseille and Paris. Dozens of rioters clashed with law enforcement on the capital’s Place de la République, next to a much larger number of demonstrators gathered for an authorized march that started from Paris’s central square.

Media also reported looting across multiple cities later in the day.

French Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu posted a message on X backing police forces and slamming violent rioters. He accused “ultra-left groups” of “organizing violence” and said looters would be brought to justice. Lecornu is overseeing a crisis meeting on Saturday evening, AFP reported.

French President Emmanuel Macron echoed Lecornu’s comments on Saturday evening, although he didn’t mention “ultra-left groups.”

“No place for violence in our Republic,” he said. “We will stand together against those who seed chaos, who only seek to tear down our institutions and who prevent those who peacefully express their demands from doing it.”

Students, farmers and members of the Yellow Jacket movement, among others, took to the streets on Saturday in a “convergence of struggles” to protest rising living costs, sluggish wages and deep disagreements with the government.

About 800,000 protestors took to the streets across the country, according to organizers. France’s interior ministry said 550,000 people took part in the protests.

“A very large majority of people are protesting without violence,” Paris’s police prefecture said on Saturday afternoon.

Saturday’s demonstrations grew out of the student protests that began last month with school blockades and calls for better study conditions, more teachers and more funding. The movement has since spread nationwide — and become a political issue as the campaign for next year’s presidential election heats up.

In recent weeks, the government has struggled to deal with the crisis — which Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu described as “urban violence” — and is hoping the student movement will now fade because of a two-week school holiday that started Friday evening.

“The mobilization is marked by a very strong involvement of the ultra-left movement, which is only looking to cause disorder,” Nuñez’s office said Saturday, adding that the minister reiterated his “instructions of utmost  firmness” to local prefects and police forces.

Footage showed Lyon’s tourist board office engulfed in flames on the city’s Place Bellecour. A police station was vandalized in Marseille, where a group of “rioters” also entered city hall, Mayor Benoît Payan said. He toldBFMTV that “damage was objectively fairly limited,” although the act of vandalism was “unacceptable.” The headquarters of right-wing TV channel CNews in Paris was also targeted, authorities said.

The government has defended the law enforcement response to the student protests despite numerous allegations of police brutality, including incidents that left one teenager with a severed hand and another blind in one eye. Nuñez said the use of “stun grenades” was authorized on Saturday, after a temporary ban on their use against students.

About 163 people had already been arrested in Paris by mid-afternoon, authorities said.

The far-left France Unbowed slammed the police response to the protests.

The party’s presidential candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon participated in the demonstrations in Paris and backed protesters — he also criticized the media for only showing violent clashes while “everything is proceeding peacefully, with tens of thousands of people calmly taking part.”

On the other side of the political spectrum, far-right leaders Jordan Bardella and Marine Le Pen pledged support for the police. “Legitimate social demands have once again been hijacked by the far left,” Le Pen said, as an increasing number of polls show she could end up in the second round against Mélenchon.

Bardella said on Saturday that protests were made up entirely of “chaos professionals,” adding: “As we said, working France, which is taking the full brunt of inflation and cost-of-living struggles, did not take to the streets today.”

The police and protesters clashed in other European countries on Saturday, too. A student-led protest against corruption and unemployment in Albania’s capital Tirana reportedly turned violent, asdid another one in Brussels.

This story was updated. Victor Goury-Laffont contributed reporting.

MADRID — Parties on Spain’s far left have failed to reach an agreement to run on a joint ticket in the November 29 election, in a setback to Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, who would need their support to form a new governing majority.

The Frente Amplio (or Broad Front), an alliance of several parties to the left of Sánchez’s Socialist Party, had hoped to recruit Podemos, which was a junior partner in government from 2020 to 2023. But with the deadline for electoral coalitions falling at midnight on Friday, the parties were unable to reach a nationwide accord.

Instead, the Broad Front and Podemos will run together only in the Canary Islands and the Valencia region.

The Broad Front is made up of Sumar, the current junior partner in the Socialist-led government, the Catalan Comuns, the Communist-led United Left and Más Madrid. Some smaller local parties have also joined the ticket. The lead candidate for prime minister will be Ada Colau, the former mayor of Barcelona.

Sumar, the dominant force in the alliance, has seen its vote share more than halve since 2023, to 5%, according to POLITICO’s Poll of Polls.

Although Podemos has only been polling at 3%, its full involvement in the Broad Front would have meant a greater overall share of seats for the far left, according to analysts. 

The PSOE has been trailing the conservative People’s Party and would need a strong performance by parties to its left in order to keep Sánchez in office. The more likely scenario, polls show, is that the PP will be able to form a majority with the far-right Vox, whose support has been rising.

“The Spanish left is caught up in a game of thrones that demobilizes [voters],” said Irene de Miguel, coordinator of Podemos in the western region of Extremadura, as the deadline loomed.

Es war eine Chaoswoche für den Kanzler Friedrich Merz. Das Rentenpaket entwickelt sich zur weiteren Zerreißprobe für die Koalition. Der neue Arbeitsminister Alexander Schweitzer macht es für den Kanzler nicht einfacher. Warum der SPD-Pragmatiker plötzlich auf Konfrontation geht und wie diese Machtkämpfe die Regierungsarbeit lähmen, steht im Zentrum der Analyse.

Gleichzeitig brodelt es an der SPD-Spitze. Gordon Buchsteiner und Rasmus Buchsteiner analysieren das personelle Vakuum der Sozialdemokraten und diskutieren, ob Hubertus Heil in die Bresche springen könnte. Zudem wird beleuchtet, welche Rolle die Ministerpräsidentinnen wie Manuela Schwesig und Anke Rehlinger im Hintergrund spielen.

Während die SPD mit sich selbst ringt, läuft der Deutschlandtag der Jungen Union in Bonn. Friedrich Merz positioniert sich in der Rentenfrage mit dem Versprechen stabiler Beiträge. Ob und wie das verfängt, diskutieren Repinski und Buchsteiner ebenfalls.

Das Berlin Playbook als Podcast gibt es jeden Morgen ab 5 Uhr. Rixa Fürsen, Maximilian Stascheit und das POLITICO-Team liefern Politik zum Hören – kompakt, international, hintergründig.

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BRUSSELS — The European Union is under pressure to keep Ukrainian troops fully online after Elon Musk’s Starlink was restricted amid volatile U.S. support for Kyiv.

“It was a very dangerous and unpleasant surprise,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told reporters after EU leaders met in Brussels, referring to Starlink speed limitations experienced by military troops in recent days. “We were using Starlink to intercept jet-powered Shaheds [combat drones] that are attacking our civilian infrastructure and killing our families … When the speed limits were lowered, we became incapable of shooting [them] down.”

Ukraine has long relied critically on Musk’s satellite constellation for wartime efforts. Reuters reported Friday that the order to slow Ukraine’s military-grade Starshield service came from the White House, days after Washington pressed Kyiv to halt strikes on Russian refineries, amid soaring energy prices and ahead of November’s midterm elections.

“It is unacceptable for Ukraine’s defense — and therefore Europe’s security — to depend on the goodwill of a single American billionaire or on Donald Trump’s decisions,” French centrist Member of the European Parliament Christophe Grudler told POLITICO.

Ahead of Thursday’s high-level meeting, European lawmakers had been calling on the EU executive to fast-track Kyiv’s access to satellite capabilities already pooled under the bloc’s Govsatcom program — which gives participating governments secure communications capabilities.

Negotiations between the EU executive and Ukraine over this access have been ongoing since March, with no breakthrough. Norway and Iceland secured such an agreement earlier this year.

“What I don’t understand is why the European Commission and the Member States have not done everything possible to quickly reach an agreement that would allow Ukraine to benefit from it,” added Christophe Grudler, who wrote to EU leaders.

He also called on them to speed up work on IRIS² — the EU’s in-house, planned satellite network and full-fledged match to Starlink, which is only expected to come online in 2030.

Commission spokesperson Thomas Regnier confirmed in a statement that it is “currently in talks with Ukraine to fully associate” the country with the EU’s Govsatcom program. “The war in Ukraine shows that our security also depends on space. And the EU has been doing quite a lot. We are ready to support Ukraine where we can support Ukraine,” he added.

Calls to crack down on dependence on foreign providers and boost alternatives to Starlink also come at a time when legislators are negotiating a series of laws that could tame Musk’s ambitions in Europe.

“Ukraine’s dependence on Starlink highlights the vulnerability of European defence systems that rely on U.S. technology, Another reminder that Europe must reduce its dangerous technological dependencies — ASAP,” center-right Finnish lawmaker Aura Salla said on social media.

Policymakers across Europe have been joining forces to curb Starlink’s dominance in low-Earth orbit, where satellites fly close to Earth to deliver faster connections.

“As legislators, we must ensure that European operators are well positioned in the market and limit the dominance of foreign players,” German center-left lawmaker Matthias Ecke said. In Brussels, lawmakers, including Ecke, are backing European telcos gunning for prized satellite frequencies, currently licensed to U.S. operators until next year and eyed by Starlink.

Meanwhile, Zelenskyy said Ukraine was working bilaterally with EU countries to secure more capabilities, citing France. He also expressed hopes that Starlink restrictions could be lifted. “My partners told me there were signals from the White House that they would return these capabilities.”

SpaceX — Starlink’s parent company — didn’t respond to POLITICO’s request for comment.

EU leaders locked horns over everything from climate rules to migration policy and Ukraine’s long-term financial needs during two days of tense discussions in Brussels.

But despite calls for urgent action, the main takeaway from Thursday and Friday’s European Council summit is that key decisions have been delayed to a later date.

With elections looming in Spain and France, and as leaders’ positions seem more entrenched than ever, nothing of substance was put down in ink. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who made the trip to Belgium, did not receive much more than warm embraces and kind words.

Speaking to journalists during a packed news conference, Ukraine’s wartime leader urged his European counterparts to come up with a financial plan or risk facing an unprecedented migration crisis with “20 million Ukrainians” fleeing to Europe.

“The war will cost €155 billion next year. And we need at least €70 billion more from you — for defense, for weapons, and for our resilience,” Zelenskyy said. “This is a realistic amount. And I ask you to find this support. It will help us hold Russia back.” 

But two diplomats told POLITICO that capitals would continue exploring a range of options to meet Kyiv’s needs, including a potential further loan from the EU. 

A debate over whether to mobilize some €300 billion in Russian frozen assets to help Ukraine is a case in point. Nearly a year after EU leaders rejected using the assets amid objections from Belgium, France and Italy, several countries have asked for the option to be revisited, and top EU diplomat Kaja Kallas had said frozen assets would be on the table when leaders met in Brussels.

But after hours of talks about Ukraine, “nothing has changed,” said Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson. “The money is not lost but in my belief nothing has happened since we had the discussion last time.”

“In the short term, money to support Ukraine must come from other sources than the frozen assets,” he concluded.

Two EU diplomats told POLITICO that the European Commission and EU capitals were working on other financing options, including seeking funds from Ukraine’s non-EU allies, mobilizing as yet untapped EU funds and drawing up another joint EU loan to complement the €90 billion loan they agreed on last year. 

The leaders “didn’t spend a lot of time” trying to come up with a plan to fund Ukraine in 2027, after Zelenskyy said his country would face a €70 billion budget hole next year, European Council President António Costa said. “We agreed immediately that we need to address the additional needs of financing Ukraine in 2027 and asked Commission to come up with concrete proposal.”

Yet leaders declined to endorse any of those options during news conferences at the end of the summit.

Money talks drag on

The gathering had also been billed as a chance for leaders to break a months-old deadlock over the size and shape of the EU’s nearly €2 trillion long-term budget.

French President Emmanuel Macron, who leaves office next year ahead of a presidential election in April and June, warned leaders that he would no longer have a political mandate to ink a deal if no deal was concluded by the end of this year.

But despite hours of talks on Thursday, neither the frugal camp led by Germany — which advocates a smaller budget — nor the “Friends of Cohesion” group calling for a larger envelope had made any substantial step toward each other.

“I think [a decision] is possible by the end of the year,” Macron told journalists at the summit’s conclusion, adding that failure to strike a deal this year would not “be a good method from a democratic standpoint.”

Instead, leaders spent much of the two-day summit trying to gain a tactical upper hand over rivals on EU climate rules and migration policy.

Trench warfare

A push led Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk to water down an emissions trading scheme known as ETS2 hijacked discussions for hours on Thursday. But despite wider support for Tusk’s position than at previous summits, it was easily defeated by countries that support the current scheme.

On migration, Denmark, Italy and Poland led a determined effort to harden the EU’s position, proposing tweaks to the summit’s conclusions that would have explicitly linked irregular migration to crime rates and branded the phenomenon a threat to the cohesion of European societies.

The proposal, which ultimately won support from a group of around 10 countries including Hungary, according to two EU diplomats, also indirectly took aim at Spain, where Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s decision to regularize some 1 million irregular migrants has sparked clashes with Italy’s Giorgia Meloni and Denmark’s Mette Frederiksen. 

Ursula von der Leyen confirmed that the Commission would put forward an emergency response framework before the end of the year to allow EU countries to respond to a sudden mass movement, such as the one that caused chaos in the Spanish exclave of Ceuta over the summer.

But the effort led by Meloni and Frederiksen ended in defeat, with the proposed paragraphs deleted from the summit’s final conclusions, which only contained a truncated version.

Macron criticized the discussions on migration, saying they had been excessively “politicized.”

“It was a bad debate because it has been highly politicized and it has been a major source of division around the table,” the French president said.

This was supposed to be an EU summit about the EU’s long-term budget. But things are never easy for EU leaders, and world events have a nasty habit of making their way onto the itinerary.

That meant this European Council had a lot more on the agenda than the last handful of summits, at least: Energy, migration, enlargement, Ukraine, and more besides were covered — and very little, if anything, was decided.

Have FOMO because you weren’t there? Don’t worry, we’ve got you covered. Here’s POLITICO’s rapid roundup of what we learned at the European Council.

1) Energy stole the show right out of the gate

The summit’s first major clash came Thursday morning, with EU leaders split over whether to delay ETS2, the bloc’s second phase of carbon pricing, to address high energy prices, triggering a three-hour-long standoff.

Italy and Greece joined the Visegrád Four — Czechia, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia — in calling for a delay, a push rejected by the majority of countries.

The debate dragged on, delaying lunch (spare a thought for our hungry leaders!) and leading to the cancellation of a press conference on Thursday night.

2) Budget negotiations are a marathon…

Negotiations on the bloc’s next long-term budget were expected to be one of the summit’s most contentious topics. But they were a nothingburger, with most leaders repeating positions they have held for months. The summit brought them no closer to a breakthrough.

Many countries, of course, want a smaller budget, with Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson telling reporters that his country is “not an ATM for the EU.”

Belgian Prime Minister Bart De Wever, meanwhile, said he had no choice but to be frugal at the European level, arguing he is used to tightening his belt at home because his wife is Dutch. Think of Bart next time your Dutch friends ask you to pay them back for that coffee.

3) … and a sprint

European Council President António Costa is still aiming to get a budget deal before the end of the year, according to two EU officials. He announced that leaders will hold a special summit at the end of November to try and make progress (and there’s a December summit too). But that timing leaves them up against the clock to reach a deal by year’s end.

See you all back here on Nov. 26!

4) EU leaders may need to bring extra luggage next time

If leaders do hope to agree on the EU’s long-term budget this year, they should prepare for long negotiations in November and December.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz suggested the pre-Christmas summit could last longer than the scheduled two days. “For the December summit, we should pack a few more shirts than usual,” he said. Gulp!

5) Your next holiday to Cyprus might be a little easier

Cypriot President Nikos Christodoulides told reporters he hopes EU leaders will discuss his country’s bid to join the Schengen travel zone at the December summit.

“All technical preparations have already been completed, and we hope that the matter will be discussed by the relevant council in December so that the final political decisions can be made,” he said.

6) Rose-colored glasses have come off when it comes to Costa

European Council President António Costa drew the ire of some leaders over his handling of negotiations to curb high energy prices, which had become a “mess,” three EU diplomats told POLITICO, with another two diplomats saying that leaders were fuming at Costa for allowing talks to go off the rails.

7) Drink (a little) less beer to help Ukraine

Ahead of the summit, Latvian Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs told reporters that supporting Ukraine costs each European the equivalent of one beer a year.

“That one beer is just a cost [for EU citizens]. There, it’s a cost of life. We drink less, their lives are saved,” he said. “Simple as that.”

He didn’t say whether he meant a beer bought in Stockholm or Prague. As anyone in Belgium knows, not all beers are created equal — or cost the same.

8) The EU Parliament wants you to know it matters too

The European Parliament’s two lead negotiators on the EU budget made the rounds of the press room to make sure journalists heard their views. Siegfried Mureșan (of the European People’s Party) and Carla Tavares (Socialists and Democrats) both stressed that the Parliament’s position is important.

Meanwhile, European Parliament President Roberta Metsola joined leaders for the first part of the summit. Metsola said she had made it clear to them that “the Parliament is not a rubber-stamp and never will be.”

9) Talking China (without mentioning China)

Leaders discussed trade imbalances (read: China) over lunch on Thursday and welcomed the deal the European Commission struck with China last week to curb imports of Chinese hybrid vehicles. Czech PM Andrej Babiš even went so far as to call the deal “fantastic.”

POLITICO scooped that the European Commission is expected to work on trade measures tackling imports of chemicals and industrial machinery in an effort to protect European industry from unfair Chinese competition.

10) New bromance brewing

Hungarian PM Peter Magyar posted a late-night selfie with Dutch PM Rob Jetten on social media after day one of the summit. The two were all smiles and “tired, but not sad”, as Magyar put it in his tweet.

In reaction to the tweet, Jetten told reporters, “We are more or less of the same generation and a tad more direct and pragmatic than some colleagues in the European Council, so there’s a click.”

11) Back to the castle

António Costa announced that another competitiveness summit at Alden Biesen castle in the Belgian countryside will take place in February 2027, three EU diplomats told POLITICO.

Leaders already visited the castle earlier this year, and they clearly loved the Belgian countryside so much they want to return (or Costa is forcing them to go).

12) Still reeling from Ceuta

Ahead of Friday’s talks, 16 EU leaders met to discuss migration over breakfast (before discussing migration over lunch with everyone else).

According to one EU diplomat, leaders broadly agreed that the EU should be able to suspend asylum applications when faced with a sudden influx of migrants that may have been engineered on purpose. But would that mean the EU will implement pushbacks (which are banned under EU law)?

13) Denmark, Italy and Poland want to be tougher on migration

The three leaders joined forces to argue that migration is a concern for many EU citizens and is contributing to rising crime rates. That caused a delay to an already shockingly long summit.

14) There were some agreements

Italy’s Giorgia Meloni and Spain’s Pedro Sánchez found some time on the sidelines of the summit to chat about Rome’s restrictions on Spanish nationals sparked by the Ceuta crisis.

Plus, France and Germany said they had struck a deal to favor European-made cars under the Industrial Accelerator Act in exchange for weakening a 2035 vehicle emissions target, ending months of wrangling between the bloc’s two biggest economies.

15) EU leaders get the good stuff to eat

Thursday’s lunch menu featured a “full-flavored vegetable jus.” Not a little flavor, not a medium amount of flavor, but the full flavor. Then on Friday there was a “rich jus”. There was also a Champagne sauce. Only the best for our leaders!

16) The same can’t be said for reporters

Some POLITICO journalists lamented the lack of vegetarian options at the Council canteen. Pray for us.

17) No harsh words from EU to Zelenskyy

At a press conference on Friday afternoon, Volodymyr Zelenskyy was asked whether EU leaders had expressed annoyance at his recent tone toward U.S. President Donald Trump. The question followed reports that some capitals were frustrated with him and worried he was further riling the White House.

But it was all love from Zelenskyy, who said there had been no harsh words during his time in the summit room. “I heard from my European colleagues support and only support, and I’m grateful for this,” he said.

18) No hugs for Fico

As Zelenskyy entered the European Council building, he was seen hugging and kissing fellow leaders — with one exception: Slovakia’s Prime Minister Robert Fico received no hug. That may well have been because Slovakia is preparing to revive a dormant cooperation forum with Moscow.

19) 20M Ukrainians could flee to Europe if Russia wins war

Zelenskyy issued a stark warning to Europe: if Russia wins the war, as many as 20 million Ukrainians could be forced to flee to Europe. Over 4 million Ukrainians already live in EU countries under temporary protection status, according to Eurostat. 

20) EU leaders have forgotten about Britain … or have they?

There was plenty of talk across the Channel this week about the U.K. potentially rejoining the bloc, but the subject did not come up at the summit, even with an EU-U.K. summit due next month. EU leaders have more pressing issues on their minds.

Still, some had things to say about the U.K.’s relationship with the EU. Foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said “all our friends are welcome to join,” naming Britain alongside Canada, Norway and Iceland as partners seeking closer ties.

Latvian Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs suggested the U.K. “should come back to the family,” although he also said that Russia “had its hands on Brexit.”

21) At POLITICO, we save the best for last

Covering European Councils often involves a lot of waiting around, but during this summit conditions were a little tougher because of a phantom farter among reporters waiting for Zelenskyy’s press conference. POLITICO went viral in Brussels’ diplomatic and journalistic circles for reporting the hard facts on our live blog.

While this summit’s agenda was packed, in the end not many concrete decisions were taken. Some might say the summit was a load of hot air.