PISA, Italy — Giorgia Meloni doesn’t want to be beaten at her own game.

With an election approaching next year and a new far-right rival emerging, the Italian prime minister — whose political origins lie in Italy’s post-fascist right — is putting aside the moderate image she has built over her four years in office and hardening her tone on migration and security.

Meloni’s government was the first in the EU to attack the Spanish government over a sudden influx of migrants from Morocco into the Spanish exclave of Ceuta last week. 

While France and other countries tightened border checks, Italy went further and announced it had suspended the EU’s free-movement Schengen agreement with Madrid. Now, in Italian airports, passengers from Spain are asked to join a different line. 

Meloni’s office has made clear it has no intention of lifting the controls until at least Aug. 15, escalating the clash with Spain, which retaliated by imposing checks on travelers from Italy.

“We will not back down one millimeter on illegal immigration,” Meloni posted on X while her allies attacked the socialist Spanish government, accusing it of failing to manage migration flows. “Defending our borders, stopping human traffickers, and ensuring effective repatriation will continue to be this government’s policy,” she added.

The clash with Spain is just the latest sign that the Italian leader is doing all she can to secure her core, hard-right electorate in the face of a challenge from the right by Roberto Vannacci, a former general and member of the European Parliament.

With an election expected as early as next spring, Vannacci’s far-right National Future party has been advancing in the polls, overtaking one of Meloni’s coalition partners, the far-right League party, and gaining on another, Forza Italia, according to POLITICO’s Poll of Polls. 

For Meloni, who began her political career in the youth wing of Italy’s post-fascist movement, the challenge strikes particularly close to home.

“There is no doubt that there is concern about containing the competition from National Future,” said Marco Tarchi, a leading right-wing political scientist. “It all boils down to a sharpening of tone. The issues — security, immigration, identity — remain the same as before.” 

During the electoral campaign that brought her to power in 2022, Meloni promised to crack down on illegal migration by putting in place a naval blockade off Italy’s coast. Though that project never ultimately happened, Meloni’s government did open detention hubs in Albania to house migrants while their asylum applications are processed. 

Vannacci, who is campaigning on security and a hard line on immigration, is calling for a more radical solution: “remigration” — a yet-to-be-detailed plan to encourage migrants to return to their countries of origin.

The crisis in Ceuta, during which tens of thousands of migrants crossed from Morocco into the Spanish exclave and nearly 100 died, provided Meloni with an opportunity to show that fighting irregular migration remains an absolute priority for her government.

Meloni’s reaction was “purely the result of domestic political calculations,” said Giorgio Gori, a member of the European Parliament from the left-wing Democratic Party. The Italian prime minister is trying to secure her electorate “by showing that she is loyal to the right-wing slogan and propaganda on migration and beyond.”

For Giovanni Orsina, director of the political science department at Rome’s Luiss Guido Carli University, Meloni’s priority at this stage is “that the Brothers of Italy [Meloni’s party] doesn’t start losing votes too” — in preparation for a potential alliance with Vannacci before or after next year’s election.

“Vannacci has been growing a lot in polls, especially over the past two months,” said Lorenzo Pregliasco from the YouTrend polling firm, noting that National Future is polling at over 7 percent. 

“Without Vannacci, the center-right could lose the upcoming election,” he said. “These seven points matter a lot.”

The Vannacci effect

Nicola Procaccini, Meloni’s lieutenant and co-chair of the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) group, denies that Meloni is shifting on policy to protect herself from Vannacci.

“She stands where she has always stood,” he told POLITICO. “She simply isn’t the racist, xenophobic fascist she was made out to be when she first took office. And she isn’t one now, either.” 

Meloni is also facing a challenge to her support for Ukraine, with both the League and Vannacci advocating a softer line on Moscow, opposing military aid to Kyiv and arguing against an increase in defense spending. 

Though Meloni has portrayed herself as a strong backer of Ukraine, her reliance on the League for support has meant Italy has contributed just €3 billion in four years, roughly the equivalent of €1 a month for every Italian citizen, less than the cost of an espresso.

Italy has also declined to join NATO’s PURL (Prioritized Ukraine Requirements List), an arms-buying scheme set up last summer after U.S. President Donald Trump ended new military aid commitments to Kyiv.

Ukraine is where Meloni’s real difference with Vannacci lies, argued Tarchi, who teaches at the University of Florence and is considered the key figure of a movement called the New Right.

“Otherwise, the gap is artificially exaggerated in rhetoric and posturing for tactical reasons,” he said.

Meloni’s allies haven’t ruled out an alliance with Vannacci but they stress that the possibility will depend on where he stands on key values such as foreign policy.

If he seeks “to position Italy, alongside Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea, clearly, it is not possible to stand together,” said Procaccini. “If, instead, he chooses the West — the democracies, Western nations, Western liberal democracies — then we can certainly stand together.”

Kyriakos Mitsotakis is the prime minister of Greece.

Europe’s security environment has fundamentally changed.

Alongside conventional military threats and cyberattacks, the EU is increasingly confronted with a more insidious form of hybrid pressure: the deliberate instrumentalization of migration by state and nonstate actors seeking to test Europe’s resilience, undermine its cohesion and extract political concessions.

Recent events at Europe’s borders, most notably in the Spanish exclave of Ceuta, are the latest reminder that migration is no longer just a humanitarian issue or management challenge. In some cases, it has become a tool of geopolitical coercion.

The EU has made important progress on this issue with its Pact on Migration and Asylum. It has introduced mechanisms to manage migratory pressure, including flexibility in its procedures and solidarity among member countries. But these tools are designed for situations that remain, at their core, manageable. They do not adequately address scenarios in which migration is weaponized, or where flows are engineered, amplified or facilitated in a way that creates a de facto hybrid challenge.

To be sure, we don’t yet know what caused the situation that unfolded in Ceuta last week. But scenarios like these are not unprecedented.

Greece faced a similar situation at its land border with Turkey in Evros in 2020, as did Lithuania, Poland and Latvia at their borders with Belarus in 2021. What we are witnessing in these cases is not a gradual increase in arrivals but the sudden, massive and often coordinated movements of people — sometimes in the tens of thousands within just a few days — that overwhelm national capacities and test the EU’s resilience as a whole.

In such extreme circumstances, the immediate and full application of standard asylum and reception systems for all arrivals is not simply difficult — it is often impossible. Systems risk paralysis, public trust erodes and the very functioning of Schengen is put under strain.

Europe needs to acknowledge this gap and act decisively.

What is required is a dedicated European framework for situations of mass and instrumentalized migratory pressure, with clear and objective criteria for its activation. These criteria should combine quantitative elements — such as the scale and speed of arrivals relative to a country’s capacity — with qualitative indicators, including any evidence of coordination, facilitation or involvement by third countries or organized criminal networks.

Once triggered under a specifically defined EU emergency regime, a mechanism like this could allow for temporary, proportionate and strictly controlled adjustments to standard procedures. Accelerated asylum processes must also continue to be part of the toolbox, particularly for individuals coming from countries with low recognition rates for international protection.

But this is not sufficient.

Europe has to be honest about the limits of its fast-track asylum procedures. In clearly defined exceptional situations of extreme and disproportionate pressure — whether at land borders or following mass arrivals by sea — member countries should be given the option, under a dedicated EU emergency regime, to temporarily suspend asylum applications for newly arrived persons while proceeding with the swift return of those not entitled to remain, in full compliance with the EU’s legal obligations.

This is not a departure from Europe’s values but a necessary adaptation to new realities.

Moreover, any such measures must be strictly time-bound, proportionate and subject to robust safeguards. Full respect for EU law, the Charter of Fundamental Rights of the EU and the principle of non-refoulement remains non-negotiable. At the same time, safeguarding international obligations must go hand in hand with the EU’s ability to protect its borders and preserve its internal stability.

Crucially, this balance cannot be sustained without genuine European solidarity. No member country facing this kind of pressure should stand alone. Operational support from EU agencies, coordinated return efforts and financial and technical assistance must be automatically mobilized whenever a mechanism to this effect is activated.

Without such a framework, the risks are clear. Frontline countries remain exposed, incentives grow for hostile actors to exploit migration for geopolitical purposes and internal divisions within the bloc deepen. Most importantly, citizens’ confidence in Europe’s ability to effectively, fairly and collectively manage its borders will continue to erode.

Europe has always adapted its policies to changing realities. Migration is no exception. And recognizing that it can be weaponized is not alarmism — it is realism.

The EU must now equip itself with the legal and operational tools needed to defend its external borders, deter those who seek to exploit its openness and respond to this new reality firmly, lawfully and collectively.

POLITICO occasionally publishes opinion pieces from guest authors to offer our readers a range of perspectives on the intersection of power and politics. The views expressed are those of the authors and do not reflect the views of POLITICO.

LONDON — On the ropes, Nigel Farage is going for a right hook.

The Reform UK leader — who has faced intense pressure over his finances over the summer  —  came out swinging Monday at a Westminster press conference focused on his core issue: borders.

Reform is pushing plans for a military drive —  dubbed “Operation Fortress” — which it claims would ensure no small boat carrying undocumented migrants reaches the English coastline.

Under its proposals, an “integrated surveillance command” to track boats using drones, space satellites and infrared feeds would be established using the Royal Navy, Royal Air Force, Royal Marines and British Army. 

Small boats would be intercepted at sea with their occupants detained, medically-assessed and given food and water before being returned on military inflatable boats to the country they came from, most likely France.

“I am entirely confident that under a Reform government, within a fortnight, there would be no more boats,” Farage — who took questions at a press conference for the first time since early May — told reporters. 

“If the Royal Navy is not there to protect this country from invasion, then, frankly, I can’t see what its purpose is,” he added.

Seizing the agenda

The Reform announcement comes as the ruling Labour Party enjoys a modest bounce in opinion polls two weeks after swapping out Keir Starmer as prime minister for former Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham.

Burnham has seized the agenda, announcing a flurry of spending commitments in his first fortnight in charge, and struck a more optimistic tone than his predecessor.

He also moves into No. 10 Downing Street with the salience of immigration slightly diminished. The number of people arriving in the U.K. on small boats was 43 percent lower between Jan. 1 and Aug. 1 this year compared to last year.

But Savanta’s Political Research Director Chris Hopkins explained that immigration remains a top issue for voters.

“It is important Burnham doesn’t ignore the issue given its general importance in U.K. politics,” he said. Hopkins adds that “getting the tone right is a tricky tightrope for a Labour prime minister to walk,” especially with the risk of turning off potential Labour-to-Green switchers on the left.

Easier said than done

Burnham has so far tried to show he’s on the front foot on migration. He has retained Shabana Mahmood as home secretary, one of the few holdovers from the Starmer era and a figure who has riled up some on the Labour left with more stringent immigration rules.

During a visit to Dover over the weekend, Burnham — with the famous white cliffs in the background — promised a “relentless” focus on small boat crossings.

“People want to see this issue addressed,” the prime minister said. “The public don’t like the idea that the border looks like it’s not controlled. We need to bring back that control, but also we need to offer support for people who genuinely need it,” he added.

Labour MP Sojan Joseph, whose Ashford constituency is near the Kent coast where many small boats arrive, praised Burnham’s approach so far — though argued that more action is needed.

“We must continue the positive work we’ve already done to reduce the number of small boat crossings and to close asylum hotels, with the hotel in my constituency already closed, to restore order to our borders — and deliver where the previous Tory government failed,” Joseph said.

On Monday, Burnham’s official spokesperson dismissed Reform’s proposals, insisting the Royal Navy already has “primacy for small boat crossings” and that border patrol officers have “significant capabilities and skills that make them the best suited candidate to lead small boats operations in the channel.”

In a BBC interview, former navy commander Tom Sharpe also questioned whether the Royal Navy has the capability to enforce Farage’s plans. Reform is “talking about the largest maritime operation in the Channel since World War Two, a very evocative image, but that’s not the reality,” he said.

Reform has also faced a host of questions about what it would do if France rejects the small boats that have been turned around and sent back to its coastline. Zia Yusuf, Reform’s home affairs spokesman, said France would be committing a “crime against humanity” if it ordered French forces to block a “humanitarian mission landing civilians in safety and forcing them back out to sea, directly endangering their lives.”

Battle of the narratives

Beyond questions about its viability, Farage’s success will depend on whether he can keep attention on this policy — and away from the multiple controversies surrounding his party.

Farage is facing a special election in his seaside seat of Clacton next week, which he has billed as a chance for the public to show it is unfazed by “establishment” scrutiny of a £5 million gift he received from a cryptocurrency investor before the last election. Shortly before the Reform press conference kicked off Monday, the parliamentary standards watchdog confirmed it is separately investigating the party’s Deputy Leader Richard Tice over an allegation he failed to declare an interest.

The Reform UK leader is also facing pressure on his right flank from Rupert Lowe’s rival Restore Britain outfit.

Farage faced questions Monday about the potential for an alliance with Lowe’s breakaway party, which continues to poll in the single digits but threatens to split the vote on the right. The Reform UK chief said he would “do whatever I could for us to have a sane center-right alliance to beat Labour at the next general election” — though Lowe has continued to direct social media barbs at Farage in the hours since the press conference.

Right-wing splits aside, Farage will be hoping he can keep the political conversation on his terms — and not Burnham’s.