Spain’s conservative People’s Party launched its electoral manifesto in Madrid on Tuesday in the run-up to the Nov. 29 snap election, as almost all pollsters point to a looming coalition of the PP and far-right Vox.

The PP already set out some of these measures in the ‘Contract with Spain’ — a list of commitments modeled on the 1994 Republicans’ ‘Contract with America’ — which PP leader Alberto Núñez Feijóo signed on Oct. 19. They also mirror those of the European People’s Party in the European Parliament.

Here are five ways in which the PP plans to take Spain in a dramatically different direction after eight years of Socialist rule.

1. Clampdown on migration

The PP plans to harden Spain’s stance on immigration — a move that goes hand in hand with Vox.

The conservatives “will promote agreements to establish return centers in third countries,” following in the footsteps of other EU countries such as Denmark and Germany, which are already exploring this option. They will propose deportation as “the standard procedure” for migrants convicted of sexual, violent and repeated offenses.

The party will ban future mass regularizations such as Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s move to grant legal status to 500,000 people — which Feijóo has fiercely criticized. The PP will also make it mandatory for foreign nationals who want to renew their temporary residence to sign an “integration agreement,” learn Spanish and become “familiar with the Constitution and the values of the EU.”

2. Not so green

As first reported in POLITICO’s Madrid Playbook, five nuclear plants would see their licenses extended. The PP will also relax climate rules, putting “an end to the imposition of unrealistic timelines,” based on three factors: “What is happening in the rest of the world, the technology that is available at the moment and changes in demand.”

On data centers, the manifesto calls for additional capacity on the electricity grid to meet Spain’s demand. On the fiscal side of energy, the document proposes to “immediately eliminate the 7% tax on electricity production and reduce fixed-rate energy contracts.”

3. All quiet on the foreign front

While Sánchez has been particularly vocal on foreign policy, criticizing Israel for its war in Gaza and the U.S. administration, at times diverging from most of his European partners, the PP will keep a lower profile.

The conservatives will have a “stable and predictable” policy focused on aligning Spain with the wider European consensus and prioritizing its relationship with Latin America.  

The PP, usually dominated by pro-Atlanticist figures, also calls for a “balanced and strong relationship between the United States and Spain,” marking a shift in tone from the strained relationship between Sánchez and U.S. President Donald Trump.

On the southern flank, the PP will have a “policy of balance with Morocco and Algeria” but steers clear of a tougher line on Rabat after July’s Ceuta crisis. On Western Sahara — on which the Socialists made a dramatic shift by backing Morocco’s 2007 autonomy plan — the PP says that it will support the United Nation’s efforts, but it falls short of calling for self-determination for the Sahrawi people.

4. 1M more houses

On housing, one of the campaign’s flashpoints, the PP promises to build 1 million homes with a new land law and through streamlining building and renovation permits. It also proposes reducing VAT from 10% to 4% for first-time buyers under 40.

The party pledges to repeal the housing law, which allows regional governments to enforce caps on rent in the so-called “stressed zones,” areas in cities under extra pressure from tourism and a lack of rentals. The PP argues the caps reduce the supply of rental housing, pushing prices higher. It also calls for tax breaks for tenants and for landlords who renew leases.

The PP promises to make it possible to evict squatters within 48 hours, and has made Badalona Mayor Xavier García Albiol a key figure of its campaign on squatting.

5. Judicial and media overhaul

Some of the PP’s key proposals concern the renewal of institutions, as the PP has accused the Socialists of “invading” the state and “circumventing checks.”

The conservatives propose that the 12 judge members of the General Council of the Judiciary be elected by judges themselves, rather than through the main political parties. It also wants stricter eligibility requirements for members of the Constitutional Court.

The PP is also proposing changes to public broadcaster RTVE and to other institutions it has criticized as being too close to the government, such as public pollster the Center for Sociological Investigation.

It will call for an audit of public bodies within its first 100 days in office.

MADRID — Spain’s election this month risks pushing the explosive issue of Catalan independence right back up the political agenda.

Nearly a decade after a separatist drive in Catalonia plunged Spain into a constitutional crisis in 2017–2018, the topic now lies dormant, barely making the headlines.

But that could change quickly if the conservative People’s Party (PP) and the far-right Vox take power in the vote on Nov. 29, as polls predict. Their staunch brand of unionism could well inflame feelings across the region of 8 million people.

“We know that they are certain to cut back our self-governing powers and intervene in Catalan society in a very heavy way,” Francesc-Marc Álvaro, a candidate for the Senate in the upcoming election for the Catalan Republican Left (ERC), said. “This would amount to throwing gasoline on Catalan society.”

Lawmaker Míriam Nogueras from the pro-independence Junts party said Catalonia had “never been respected by any Spanish regime or government,” and the next would be no exception. “Whatever its political color, the next Spanish government will be exactly the same as the previous one on one fundamental issue: Catalonia,” she said, adding that “the independence movement will regain momentum, and it will do so with renewed strength, because Catalonia’s dependence on Spain makes everyone poorer.”

For Madrid, the stakes are economic as well as political. Catalonia is Spain’s second-biggest autonomous region after Andalusia, representing about 19% of the national economy and 16.5% of the population.

End of Sánchez era

Socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez took office shortly after a failed independence drive in 2017 saw several nationalist politicians flee abroad and nine others jailed.

In contrast to the PP’s uncompromising approach to Catalonia, Sánchez negotiated with pro-independence parties, making concessions in exchange for their parliamentary support.

An amnesty benefiting Catalans involved in the secession attempt angered the Spanish right but helped calm the political atmosphere in the region, eliminating a major nationalist grievance.

Meanwhile, the cross-party unity between separatists that was so instrumental in driving the independence movement a decade ago has dissolved.

Although 43% of Catalans remain in favor of independence, according to the regional government’s statistics institute, the topic has fallen off their list of priorities, behind housing, immigration and crime.

Carles Puigdemont, the former Catalan president who led the 2017 secession bid, recently admitted that “nine years on, the independence movement is fragmented and weakened.”

Speaking to Catalan news outlet El Punt Avui from Waterloo, Belgium, the separatist said: “What I want is to stop being Spanish. I don’t say this as an act of rejection or contempt. I often compare it to someone who feels like a woman trapped in a man’s body,” adding that he should be able to “cancel” Spanish nationality like any other subscription.

Reviving old traumas

The big question now is to what degree hostility from the PP and Vox could rebuild the movement.

PP leader Alberto Núñez Feijóo, citing Sánchez’s willingness to engage with Catalan nationalists, accused him of leading a government that “has begun a process of separation with and deconstruction of the constitutional system of 1978.”

Vox rose to prominence on the back of its fierce opposition to Catalan separatism. It has called for pro-independence parties to be made illegal and advocates the dismantling of Spain’s decentralized political structure, which it claims is wasteful and encourages regional nationalism.

“We want to make [separatist parties’] life as difficult as possible, because they’ve been making life impossible for Spaniards in general,” said Vox spokesperson José Antonio Fúster. “We are going to work, without a doubt, to make sure that pro-independence parties accept that the unity of Spain cannot be meddled with, is not questioned — otherwise it is clear that they must not form part of the Spanish political landscape.”

For now, however, both the PP and Vox are not taking a directly confrontational approach on Catalonia.

In an interview with Barcelona-based newspaper La Vanguardia, Feijóo insisted that the region had nothing to fear from him. 

“I’m not here to centralize; I’m here to make self-government work and for the Spanish state to have a presence in Catalonia,” he said. He also complained, on the region’s behalf, that budgeted public works were not being carried out there, echoing a longstanding grievance among Catalan nationalists.

The PP leader said he planned to repeal the amnesty law benefiting Catalan nationalists, a move that would not have any practical effect. However, he also pointed to his own Galician background to underline that he understood the “issue of language, the identity- and cultural-based sentiment” associated with coming from one of Spain’s regions. 

So far during the election campaign, Vox has also toned down its rhetoric on Catalonia. Party leader Santiago Abascal has instead prioritized clamping down on immigration, saying that Catalan identity needs to be protected from “Islamism.”

Vox’s relatively muted approach to Catalonia appears influenced by a desire not to antagonize voters of Catalan Alliance (AC), a far-right pro-independence party that will not run against it in the general election.

Wolves in sheep’s clothing

The Socialist Catalan president, Salvador Illa, is one of many who remain unconvinced by the emollient approach from the right during the campaign.

“These wolves are now presenting themselves as little lambs when it comes to regional government,” he said. “We’ve spent 47 years building our regional self-government. And in just one legislature of Feijóo and Abascal, it could all go down the toilet.”

The policies of a new right-wing government would likely depend on the balance of power between the PP and Vox. Dismantling the system of regional government may be a step too far, as might the outlawing of pro-independence parties, both of which the PP has resisted in the past.

A less dramatic but nonetheless significant move might revolve around the use of the Catalan language, which has previously been a political flashpoint.

Eliminating the use of regional languages — such as Catalan, Basque, Valencian and Galician — during debates in the Spanish Congress might be an easy policy to implement for a PP-Vox administration. It would also, according to Oriol Bartomeus, director of Barcelona’s Institute for Political and Social Sciences, be “a declaration of war” for separatists.

Álvaro, of the pro-independence ERC, sees a prototype for what PP and Vox would be likely to do once in government in Valencia and the Balearic Islands, where the two parties govern together and have introduced measures aimed at reducing the use of those regions’ local languages, which are variants of Catalan. 

“A PP-Vox government will definitely be militantly opposed to the language immersion model” in place in Catalan schools, Álvaro said. He also foresees a right-wing administration cutting back the Catalan government’s financing and powers in areas such as policing.

Feijóo’s willingness to exploit unionist feeling — and rile Catalan nationalists — could depend on his ability to resist the pressure of his likely coalition partner. It could also depend on how his government fares elsewhere.

“The Catalan issue is always there, liable to be used to serve political interests,” said Bartomeus, who sees the PP taking a harder line on the territorial issue if it underperforms in the election. “If you can’t implement, for example, a successful economic policy, you can always wage a culture war.”

If the next Spanish government takes a hardline approach to unionism, that would be more likely to re-energize Catalan separatism.

Puigdemont’s Junts per Catalunya party, which has been struggling in polls and helped trigger the snap election by voting in Congress against housing measures presented by Sánchez, has been awaiting a change of administration in Madrid, according to Bartomeus.

“Junts thinks that a PP-Vox government will favor a revival of the independence movement,” he said. “They are banking on the idea of a Spanish nationalist government in Madrid which is dedicated to screwing Catalonia. The objective is to reproduce the blueprint that led to [the events of 2017].”

Junts’ leader, Puigdemont, recently pointed to the “extreme division” in Spanish politics. Identifying an opportunity for his cause, he said that “even in the most difficult times for the independence movement, Spain generates crises of which we should be prepared to take advantage.”

Puigdemont has been living in Belgium since leading the 2017 independence bid. After a lengthy legal wrangle, the Spanish judiciary has finally declared that the Catalan amnesty can be applied to him.

His return home, expected after the election, could provide a morale boost to pro-independence Catalans just as a Spanish right that abhors separatism enters government.

As he himself puts it: “Even in the most difficult moments for the movement, Spain generates crises that we should be prepared to exploit.”

Poland’s long-simmering rule-of-law issue reached boiling point this weekend. So, what now?

On today’s show, Zoya Sheftalovich and Kathryn Carlson unpack Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s efforts to undo judicial appointments made under the previous right-wing Law and Justice government. Tusk’s administration argues that removing these PiS-era appointees is essential to bringing Poland back into line with EU rule-of-law standards. But after this weekend’s turmoil, could the push backfire? And what could it mean for Tusk’s support ahead of next year’s elections?

Then, on to a crisis closer to home: Belgian Prime Minister Bart De Wever offered his resignation to King Philippe Monday morning, after failing to reach a budget agreement for 2027. Does that mean the government will collapse? Zoya and Katie go through what happens next.

And finally, RFK Jr.’s Make American Healthy Again campaign is coming to Brussels … at least when it comes to ultra-processed foods.

What are your thoughts on unhealthy, processed snacks and junk food? How should the bloc tackle them? Write in and let us know: You’ll find us on WhatsApp here or at +32 491 05 06 29.

Articles mentioned in this episode:

• Crisis over top court shapes Poland’s battle lines before 2027 election.
• Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s food fight is coming to Brussels.
• King mulls De Wever’s resignation as Belgian budget talks fail.