Poland’s defense minister said Tuesday that the Pentagon had given a “green light” to plans for a permanent U.S. military base in the country, with President Donald Trump expected to make a final decision in early December.
Speaking after talks with U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth in Washington, Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz said his American counterpart told him that “everything is moving in the right direction.”
“We interpret that as a green light from the Pentagon,” he said. The project has not yet received formal U.S. approval.
The Pentagon’s own account stopped short of endorsing the base or confirming the December timetable, but acknowledged ongoing talks about strengthening the permanent U.S. military presence in Poland.
Hegseth praised Poland’s military buildup, calling its army “one of the most formidable” in Europe. He also pushed for European NATO allies to take greater responsibility for their own defense, potentially allowing Washington to reduce its troop presence on the continent.
Poland already hosts thousands of American troops, largely on rotating deployments. But Warsaw is pushing for a permanent base as the Pentagon reviews its military presence across Europe, with other NATO allies fearing Trump could withdraw thousands more troops. The review is expected to conclude by December.
The project is also a rare point of agreement between Poland’s feuding leaders. Prime Minister Donald Tusk and President Karol Nawrocki — a Trump ally whom the U.S. president backed in last year’s election — agreed last week to cooperate on securing the base, despite their bitter confrontation over control of Poland’s top court.
Nawrocki has embraced the proposed name “Fort Trump,” first floated by his predecessor, Andrzej Duda, in 2018.
The U.S. Department of Defense didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.
Portugal’s foreign ministry on Tuesday slammed Mark Rutte after the NATO chief said that for Lisbon, Russia was a distant and less relevant threat.
“Portugal, its Government and its people have never been in any doubt about which side of history they stand on,” the ministry said on X. “It is regrettable that the NATO Secretary General should speak so lightly on such a serious matter.
“Mark Rutte should know better than to overlook the countries and governments that stand firmly by Ukraine and fully understand the threat posed by Russia,” it added.
Rutte told Dutch TV last week that Southern European countries like Spain and Portugal see Russian aggression as remote.
“Sometimes I tell our allies in Spain or Portugal, who say, ‘It’s far away, and what happens in Russia mainly affects Poland'” that “Russia’s latest missiles take 5 minutes longer to reach Lisbon than Warsaw,” he said.
NATO spokesperson Allison Hart said: “It is clear that all Allies agree that Russia is a threat … and while all governments understand the threat, the Secretary General often highlights for public audiences who may not be as engaged on security issues how very close this threat is to all Allies.”
Since Russia’s full-scale attack on Ukraine in 2022, Spain has given €1.5 billion in military and humanitarian aid to Ukraine, or 0.2% of its GDP, according to the Kiel Institute’s Ukraine Support Tracker. Portugal has donated €390 million, or 0.18% of GDP — far below Germany and frontline countries.
However, a Eurobarometer poll taken this spring found that 92% of those surveyed in Portugal saw Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as a security threat to the EU, while 82% of those Spain thought the same. The average for the EU was 76%.
Eingeklemmt zwischen Kaliningrad und Belarus liegt die verwundbarste Stelle der NATO. Genau hier entsteht mit der Panzerbrigade 45 das wohl wichtigste Projekt der deutschen Zeitenwende. Bis 2027 sollen fast 5.000 deutsche Soldaten dauerhaft in Litauen stationiert werden.
Doch die Bedrohung durch Russland ist längst nicht mehr nur theoretisch: Drohnen, Desinformation und brennende Infrastruktur zeigen, dass der hybride Krieg Litauen bereits erreicht hat. Im Gespräch erklärt der litauische Verteidigungsminister Robertas Kaunas, wie real die Gefahr einer Invasion ist.
Die Folge beleuchtet, wie sich die baltischen Staaten wappnen und was Europa tun muss, falls die USA als Schutzmacht ausfallen. Eine präzise Einordnung, warum die Abschreckung an der Ostflanke über das Schicksal des Kontinents entscheidet und die Sicherheit in Vilnius letztlich die Sicherheit in Berlin bedeutet.
Das Berlin Playbook als Podcast gibt es jeden Morgen ab 5 Uhr. Rixa Fürsen, Maximilian Stascheit und das POLITICO-Team liefern Politik zum Hören – kompakt, international, hintergründig.
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POLITICO Deutschland – ein Angebot der Axel Springer Deutschland GmbH Axel-Springer-Straße 65, 10888 Berlin Tel: +49 (30) 2591 0 information@axelspringer.de Sitz: Amtsgericht Berlin-Charlottenburg, HRB 196159 B USt-IdNr: DE 214 852 390 Geschäftsführer: Christoph Eck-Schmidt, Carolin Hulshoff Pol, Mathias Sanchez Luna
BRUSSELS — NATO allies face a €7 billion funding gap for Ukraine this year as Russia steps up its bombing campaign and Kyiv calls for more air defenses.
NATO’s 32 member countries agreed in July to provide €70 billion in military aid to Ukraine in 2026 and an equivalent sum in 2027.
But the alliance now faces a shortfall of around €7 billion, with less than two months until the end of the year, according to three alliance diplomats, all of whom were granted anonymity to speak freely. It is unclear where exactly the current gap is coming from, but it is likely to hamper Ukraine’s ability to buy vital equipment to fend off Russian missiles and drones this winter.
The shortfall comes ahead of an alliance meeting on Nov. 17 where European capitals are expected to examine ways to boost funding and increase the transfer of critical weapons to Ukraine. While new NATO funding pledges are still expected, it’s possible that allies may fail to meet this year’s target, the diplomats said.
A NATO official speaking on behalf of the organization said that “allies continue to provide essential military support to Ukraine” to fulfill the pledge and “are working to ensure that Ukraine has the support it needs now and into the future.”
Kyiv has repeatedly urged allies to step up their funding as Russia continues its devastating air assaults; more than 40 people were reportedly killed after a school bombing this week.
During a closed-door meeting with allies Thursday, Ukraine’s ambassador to NATO Alyona Getmanchuk “emphasised the importance for Ukraine of NATO Allies fulfilling the commitment made at the Ankara Summit to provide €70 billion in military support this year,” according to a statement by the Ukrainian mission.
“It is essential to mobilise all partners to the fullest extent, accelerate new decisions, and translate previously announced commitments into concrete deliveries of equipment or transfers of funds,” it added.
NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte has also asked allies to dig deep for more money. “With winter coming, and with Russia’s aggression unrelenting, allies need to do more, especially in support of air defense,” he said during a recent visit to Tallinn.
The missing cash underscores the growing difficulties faced by allied governments in continuing to finance Ukraine. The U.S., once the main giver, has stopped almost all new aid since Donald Trump returned to the White House.
That has left European countries as Ukraine’s key supporters. But many capitals face growing fiscal strains while countries such as Germany, the Netherlands and Nordic nations — which have historically provided outsized contributions — have repeatedly called on others to give more.
There is “some fatigue” from the largest donors “[which] have repeatedly financed packages,” the third NATO diplomat said.
NATO’s Ukraine funding is typically channeled toward programs like the alliance’s non-lethal aid scheme, called the Comprehensive Assistance Package, as well as its Prioritised Ukraine Requirements List that has European allies buying critical U.S. weapons like Patriot interceptors for Kyiv. The shortfall includes a $1.9 billion gap in funding for unpaid PURL deliveries, two of the diplomats said.
Separately, allies remain skeptical that they will meet Rutte’s target of $15 billion for PURL this year. “I do not think that there’s a chance we will meet that,” said the same NATO diplomat cited above.
Ukraine’s NATO mission said 29 allies have now contributed to the scheme. Since its launch in 2025, it has raised around $9 billion in total contributions, the two diplomats added.
BRUSSELS — Europe is once again watching the White House through gritted teeth.
An opaque Trump administration proposal for a new European-wide security arrangement with Russia has met skepticism from European capitals that fear it risks sidelining the continent and emboldening Kremlin chief Vladimir Putin.
“We already have a European security architecture in place — NATO and European Union both have their respective roles,” EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said Friday in reaction to the U.S. plan. “We must make sure Ukraine is integrated into this architecture. The problem remains that Russia keeps breaking the treaties that underpin it … Putin does not have a veto over European security.”
The latest U.S. proposal underscores growing anxiety around Trump’s fresh rapprochement with Russia as he ramps up pressure on Ukraine and his administration attempts to revive long-stalled talks to end Moscow’s full-scale war against Kyiv.
POLITICO spoke to 12 NATO diplomats, EU envoys and European government officials, all of whom were granted anonymity to speak freely on the sensitive issue. NATO allies were not briefed about the American plans in advance, according to three alliance diplomats, and many remain skeptical of the idea.
U.S. President Donald Trump late Thursday talked of a “big, beautiful agreement,” after meeting with Putin’s envoy Kirill Dmitriev, adding: “It’s going to involve more than Ukraine, and I could even say it might involve all of Europe.”
“Our objective is to develop practical arrangements that address the security concerns of all sides, reduce the risk of future conflict, and create a more stable and predictable security environment,” Trump’s son-in-law and envoy Jared Kushner added soon after.
Kushner said the arrangement would have five goals: “Permanent security consultations, reliable crisis communications, greater military transparency, reciprocal measures to reduce escalation risks, and an enduring framework for long-term European security and stability.”
“It is a bit obscure what Kushner meant,” said one NATO diplomat. “The general sentiment in Europe is that any discussion with Russia on the future architecture at the moment will just be used by Moscow to legitimize their arguments … it will not fly with the European allies.”
A senior European official added: “Literally, there’s nothing to find fault with, but we know there’s something else going on.”
‘The elephant in the room’
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s top adviser, Björn Seibert, briefed EU ambassadors on Friday, according to two EU diplomats, following a discussion between national security advisers on the issue.
“There’s willingness to engage in Kyiv and in the rest of Europe although there’s little confidence in the Russians — but the EU is not blocking it,” one of the EU diplomats said after the meeting. But “the group around Trump underestimated how important the conflict is for Europe and how a bad outcome for Ukraine is very dangerous for Europe.”
“It’s a long-standing position for us and many others that European security architecture should not be discussed while there is a war,” said a senior European security official. “And obviously not without Europeans.”
“Europe must have a seat at the table in negotiations on peace in Ukraine and the future European security architecture,” Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda added Friday, after a meeting of the eight Nordic and Baltic countries.
This week saw two rounds of working-level meetings in Brussels on a Ukraine peace deal, ahead of U.S.-brokered working-level talks with Ukraine and Russia on Nov. 10-11 in Abu Dhabi.
“We must be realistic about the peace talks and we must be very careful when it comes to the real intentions of Russia,” Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk told a group of reporters, including from POLITICO, earlier this week. “In winter, Putin might have less incentives to get a deal.”
Stefan Kornelius, spokesperson for German Chancellor Friedrich Merz — who talked to Trump on Thursday night — said: “A new sense of urgency has … emerged” on negotiations after this week’s U.S. midterm elections, adding the issue would resurface at an informal gathering of EU leaders in Dublin next week.
The meeting had been intended to focus on AI, but developments in Ukraine could overshadow the talks, a third EU diplomat said. “Things are moving pretty fast,” they said.
Still, some allies fear the U.S. may tie its new initiative to an upcoming review of American troops in Europe, expected in December.
“That’s the elephant in the room,” said a second NATO diplomat. “One thing is talking about European security architecture … with an ‘ordinary’ U.S. posture; another thing is to talk about a European security architecture ‘as things will be,’ and nobody knows how that’ll be.”
PARIS — Far-left presidential hopeful Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s party set out leaving NATO and nationalizing defense companies in its official platform released Friday.
“Immediately withdraw from NATO’s integrated command and then, in stages, from the organization itself. Reject the tribute demanded by the United States of 5% of GDP devoted to defense spending,” read France Unbowed’s 222-page program.
However, France under Mélenchon would still provide assistance to European Union countries under EU treaties, the document added, echoing what the far-left leader previously told POLITICO.
An increasing number of polls place Mélenchon in second place in next year’s high-stakes election to replace President Emmanuel Macron. The top two vote-getters go on to a second round, which could see Mélenchon facing off against far-right leader Marine Le Pen, who also pledges to take France out of NATO’s integrated command.
Unlike Le Pen’s far-right party, France Unbowed does not explicitly say it would stop providing assistance to Ukraine — but it does insist on the need for a diplomatic solution. Any peace agreement would need to lean on “collective security guarantees, between the belligerents and with the rest of Europe.”
France Unbowed wants more arms regulation, including of lethal autonomous weapons systems and nuclear weapons.
The far-left party is also pushing back against the “space arms race,” including by pledging to close NATO’s space center in Toulouse, but says France should have the means to guarantee its sovereignty. Unlike most other political parties, France Unbowed has strong interest in space policy, and argues in its presidential platform that France should acquire a space shuttle.
France Unbowed lawmakers have previously pushed for France to procure Dassault Aviation’s Vortex, a European reusable orbital spaceplane program spearheaded by the French aerospace manufacturer.
Overall, France should invest more in so-called critical enablers, meaning military equipment in areas such as communications, intelligence and logistics that are currently mostly provided by the U.S. via NATO. “They must be produced as a matter of priority,” the party wrote.
It also wants to nationalize some of the country’s main defense companies including ArianeGroup.
A more detailed platform specifically on defense will be released later, a France Unbowed lawmaker told POLITICO.
LONDON — Defense and worries about Russia rank among the top concerns of British voters, but Reform UK has spent more than two years without a dedicated spokesperson and still has no detailed military policy.
Without that, the right-wing party is on the back foot on policy to deter Moscow and has lacked a compelling alternative to the defense spending surge that is one of the Labour government’s biggest priorities. It has also encountered difficulties reaching out to the arms industry.
Now, Reform is moving to correct that. On Thursday, the party announced Angus MacIntyre as its new defense spokesperson. He will help the party develop a defense policy ahead of the next election.
“We want to come into government with a comprehensive program that we can deliver to the machine, rather than have a flimsy manifesto with a few headline commitments and ask them to work out how to deliver it,” a senior party official told POLITICO. Like others in this article, they were granted anonymity to discuss policy issues.
MacIntyre served in the military for 40 years and retired as a wing commander in the Royal Air Force last week to take up the role.
“Having someone of Angus’ stature and calibre speak for us on defence shows how seriously Reform UK takes protecting the interests of Britain’s military,” party leader Nigel Farage said ahead of the announcement.
MacIntyre blamed successive Conservative and Labour governments for underfunding the military.
“Neither can be trusted. Only Reform UK can fix and rebuild our armed forces,” he said in the statement.
But the announcement comes more than two years after the last election. Since then, the party surged in opinion polls, leading for many months before recently falling behind Labour after Andy Burnham became prime minister.
Senior party officials blamed the delay in setting out a defense policy on a desire to “get it right,” rather than put out piecemeal ideas which could be attacked by political opponents.
He has been haunted by comments made in 2014, when he said he “admired” Russian President Vladimir Putin as an “operator.” Farage has tried to distance himself from such statements by calling Putin “a very bad dude” and saying the U.K. should shoot down Russian jets in British airspace.
RAF Typhoon Fighter Jets operate from RAF Coningsby on October 21, 2026. | Ryan Jenkinson/Getty Images
However, any attempt to put the party on a solidly pro-Ukraine footing has been mixed: he called Kyiv “corrupt” and has promised to review Britain’s military aid to Ukraine.
One British defense industry representative said Farage’s comments on Ukraine were unhelpful. “A lot of money for the defense industry does come from contracts with Ukraine, and it’s also that moral thing with the defense industry — they want to support Ukraine.”
Farage’s lack of success in distancing himself from his past pro-Putin and pro-Russia comments puts him at odds with many U.K. voters.
A YouGov poll last month found that Russia was by far the biggest threat for British voters, easily outpacing out-of-control AI.
Sophia Gaston, a British foreign policy researcher who wrote a report to be published Thursday on public attitudes to defense, said 83% of Reform backers favored more defense spending, higher than for any other party.
“While there has been a lot of attention on Nigel Farage’s somewhat mixed feelings towards Ukraine and NATO more generally, he must tread a careful line as that does not necessarily reflect the views of his voters, of whom 92% regard Russia as a threat to global peace,” she said.
“All in all, Reform voters remain Eurosceptic, Atlanticist, hawkish towards authoritarian nations, and in favour of a more defensive state,” said Gaston.
The policies Reform does have on defense are mainly skewed toward its core voter concerns — cracking down on immigration and boosting benefits for armed forces personnel.
Reform backs increasing defense spending to 3% of GDP by 2030 and NATO’s 3.5% target by 2035 — in line with the governing Labour Party. It says it would pay for the higher spending through £45 billion of cuts to other areas such as welfare.
While the party is still developing a comprehensive defense policy, Reform MP Danny Kruger this summer called for the U.K. to “become a great power once again.” He also spelled out the importance of NATO, defending the U.K. and a stronger response to Russian hybrid interference.
“That means moving from a regional heavyweight to being the leading economic, technological, diplomatic and security power in Europe,” he said.
He also called for “a total reform of procurement,” including possibly removing it from the Ministry of Defence.
Industry struggling to engage
The lack of a defense spokesperson has made it difficult for industry to engage with Reform.
“They don’t have any defense policy, and they’re therefore not asking any questions, and have no person to engage with,” said the defense industry representative. “Their only policy really on defense is: ‘Well, we want to spend more money, and we’re not going to tell you what and when, and also we want to get the woke out of the military.’”
Another defense sector representative underlined the negative signal sent by the party’s delay in appointing someone to oversee the issue.
“There has been nothing significant on defense which, in addition to a lack of defense spokesperson, is baffling given the geopolitical environment we are facing,” they said.
Following MacIntyre’s appointment, the party will now look to publish detailed policy documents on defense, as it has done in recent months on topics such as immigration and the economy.
Reform plans to build out its foreign policy team over the next year, said a senior Reform adviser.
BERLIN — Britain has set a 2030 deadline for raising defense spending to 3% of GDP. Finding the money — and getting industry to deliver — will be the harder tests, U.K. Defence Secretary Wes Streeting told POLITICO.
U.K. Chancellor John Healey announced the target during last week’s budget, but faced criticism for not laying out how it would be funded. The government will set out next year how it plans to meet the 3% target by 2030 and its NATO commitment to spend 3.5% of GDP on defense by 2035.
On a Monday visit to Brussels and Berlin, Streeting said he has “total confidence” that the U.K. will hit the 2030 goal, adding: “We deliver on time and on target.”
The U.K. currently spends about 2.6% of GDP on defense. However, the defense budget has been bolstered in a bid to deter Russia, while other departments face cuts.
“I think I was probably the only Cabinet minister going into the budget who was in a position to confidently say that we’d be getting more,” Streeting said of last week’s announcement.
He said the commitment to higher spending “was an important message to send to industry and our allies, and our adversaries for that matter.” He also rejected accusations that the government has not laid out a clear path for higher spending.
The Institute for Fiscal Studies said that hitting the 2030 defense spending target would need an additional £11 billion in spending, and reaching the 2035 NATO goal “would require an even larger, and more sustained, increase.”
The idea is to figure out how to channel more private sector funds into defense, including with public-private partnerships.
However, Streeting said he was wary of defense turning to Private Finance Initiatives. Under PFI, private consortia design, build and maintain public infrastructure — such as schools, hospitals and roads — in exchange for decades of taxpayer-funded lease and service payments.
“I’m a big critic of PFI,” said Streeting, noting that Britain “learned the lessons on PFI a long time ago and so the private finance initiative is not something we would repeat.”
“But there are other ways of drawing in private finance which learn the right lessons and get a good return and good deal for everyone, and pass without controversy,” he added.
The defense buildup involves tighter cooperation with industry and also closer links with key allies like Germany.
Streeting met with German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius in Berlin to discuss the two countries’ defense partnership. That included discussions on Germany potentially joining the British-Italian-Japanese Global Combat Air Programme to build sixth-generation fighter jets.
One option is to forge closer ties with GCAP, but some of the three existing members, including Japan, are worried that bringing in Germany could delay the project, which aims to bring the aircraft into service by 2035.
There is also concern that adding another member would dilute the amount of work being done by companies from the three original countries, something Streeting said he was aware of. German officials also worry that Germany would have too little influence over a program that is already underway.
Streeting stressed that allowing in new GCAP members would have to be a “shared decision” with Italy and Japan, adding he was conscious of “some of the risks around timescales for delivery.”
Asked about potential delays to GCAP, Streeting said: “One of the things I’m keen to do is to try and accelerate the program and look right across the program delivery timetable which bits we can try and truncate.”
He added that the long development time for the GCAP project exemplified frustrations with the defense industry across a range of other programs that are “shared by defense ministers across NATO.”
The European defense industry is pressing for governments to issue long-term contracts, which would lower the risk they face in making large investments to set up new production.
“I think it reflects a legitimate peacetime business as usual, where industry leaders are keen to avoid famine and feasts. They want to sustain their production lines,” Streeting said, but added that companies therefore “do not go as fast or as productively as they possibly could.”
But the need to deter Russia and to continue supporting Ukraine means that caution should be jettisoned, he said.
“We are in a place of heightening threat, and so as the U.K. and our NATO allies are spending more and investing more in our capability, we need industry to step up and accelerate as well with us.”
Deutschland befindet sich nicht im Krieg, aber auch nicht mehr im Frieden. Was passiert konkret, wenn das Land militärisch angegriffen wird? Dieser existenziellen Frage stellt sich Generalleutnant Alexander Sollfrank, Befehlshaber des Operativen Führungskommandos der Bundeswehr, im Gespräch mit Rixa Fürsen.
Ein konventioneller Überraschungsangriff gilt dank engmaschiger Überwachung als unwahrscheinlich, doch der hybride Schattenkrieg durch Sabotage und Spionage läuft bereits auf Hochtouren. Die Folge beleuchtet, wie der „Operationsplan Deutschland“ greift, wenn das Land im Ernstfall zur logistischen Drehscheibe für zehntausende NATO-Soldaten wird.
Der Verteidigungsfall betrifft längst nicht mehr nur das Militär. Die Analyse zeigt detailliert, wie zivile Behörden, Polizei und Bundeswehr im Krisenfall verzahnt agieren müssen, um eine glaubhafte Abschreckung aufzubauen und die europäische Sicherheitsarchitektur zu verteidigen.
Das Berlin Playbook als Podcast gibt es jeden Morgen ab 5 Uhr. Rixa Fürsen, Maximilian Stascheit und das POLITICO-Team liefern Politik zum Hören – kompakt, international, hintergründig.
Für alle Hauptstadt-Profis: Der Berlin Playbook-Newsletter bietet jeden Morgen die wichtigsten Themen und Einordnungen. Jetzt kostenlos abonnieren.
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