Europe is feeling more than a little bit of schadenfreude.

In a stunning U.S. midterm election, Democrats regained control of the House of Representatives and the Senate, as well as several governorships, winning big in Republican strongholds like South Carolina, Texas and even Kansas. While some races were yet to be called Wednesday morning, the result is a monumental rebuke of U.S. President Donald Trump.

For Europe, which has weathered Trump’s incessant verbal attacks and tariff threats for the last two years, it was a rare ray of hope in transatlantic politics — if not because Washington would become a more predictable partner, then at least because the U.S. president might be too distracted to focus his usual ire on Europeans.

European Parliament Vice President Sophie Wilmès, a former Belgian prime minister, heralded a “major shift in the balance of power in the U.S. Congress,” adding: “I hope it will lead to a calmer, more constructive relationship with Europe.”

It remains to be seen how Trump will shift his stance on Europe, if at all, with Congress no longer under his control. As president, he still retains many of the executive’s powers on foreign policy.

German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius called the Democratic victory “historic” but cautioned against Europe expecting too much. “We will seek close contact with the Democrats,” he said Wednesday morning at the Berlin Security Conference. “But we do not know what the president will do after the election in the near future.”

Two senior EU figures — both regular Trump antagonists — couldn’t resist celebrating the result, though.

“American society voted against policies that only impoverish,” Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez said. “Against hate. Against sexism. Against climate change denial and against the privileges of the elites.”

Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski reshared his own tweet from June last year responding to Elon Musk, a key Trump ally. “See, big man, politics is harder than you thought,” he snarked.

Headache for Europe’s far right

For Europe’s ascendant far right, which has long balanced admiration for Trump with the reality that he is deeply unpopular across the continent, the midterms are an uncomfortable reminder of the political risks of being too closely associated with the U.S. president.

Jordan Bardella, leader of France’s National Rally (RN), was keen to chalk up Trump’s “unfavorable” result to his decision to go to war with Iran more than anything else.

“It’s the case that the U.S. intervention in Iran has had a very strong impact on the U.S. economy, but also on the European economy,” he said Wednesday morning.

Bardella added that the RN’s presidential candidate Marine Le Pen was still leading in the French polls ahead of next year’s election and insisted defeats for nationalist politicians in Brazil, Hungary and now the U.S. did not bode ill for his party’s chances.

But the cost-of-living crisis was top of American voters’ minds, according to polls. That’s also the case in European countries, from France to Spain to Greece, which are grappling with soaring rents and widespread anger at apparently impotent governments.

Marine Tondelier, leader of France’s Greens, said Trump had “made the United States the laughingstock of the world” and called the result a “warning for France” ahead of the presidential election in April.

“If our country brings the RN to power next year, it will meet the same tragic fate as the United States,” she said.

U.S. Ambassador to NATO Matthew Whitaker sought to downplay the prospect of a shift in Washington’s foreign policy following the midterm elections, insisting that the issues facing the U.S. and its European allies remained unchanged.

“The foreign policy of the United States has not changed,” Whitaker said, adding that “the issues that we’re facing as a country and as an alliance are the same.”

European markets, meanwhile, greeted the results with cautious optimism. Paris, London and Frankfurt opened slightly higher on Wednesday, following the Democrats’ sweeping victory.

Reality check for Trump

For all the celebrations, European officials were also quick to acknowledge that a Democratic-controlled Congress does not automatically translate into a more accommodating U.S. administration.

Trump retains considerable room to maneuver on foreign policy, including on the issues that have most strained transatlantic ties: European security, trade and Russia’s war in Ukraine.

France’s Economy Minister Roland Lescure noted Wednesday morning that while Trump would be “quite weakened” domestically, the “unpredictable” president remained “in charge of international policy.”

But a hostile Congress could make it harder for him to push through his domestic agenda, while opening the door to greater scrutiny of his administration.

“Voters have a habit of balancing power,” Finnish MEP Mika Aaltola said on X, “and now the president’s hands are more tied in domestic and foreign policy.”

Former Italian Prime Minister Enrico Letta was more emphatic.

“Europe is much stronger” thanks to the “blue wave,” he wrote on X.

Kathleen Van Brempt, vice-chair of the European Parliament’s International Trade Committee, shared a White House tweet predicting a Trump victory — and captioned it that it was, actually, America that won.

“And he lost,” she said.

Despite the ballot-box drubbing, Trump himself couldn’t resist a final shot at Europe, during an election night call with Fox News.

“You look at Europe, it’s dying. You look at what’s going on in France, what’s going on in Italy and all these other countries. I mean, they’re going through a terrible time. And they may not even survive, frankly,” he warned. “And we are thriving.”

European capitals are watching these midterms closely — but are under no illusions that a Democrat-led Congress could reverse the new world order shaped by President Donald Trump.

The MAGA movement has few friends among European governments, given Trump’s backpedaling on support for Ukraine and NATO. The president’s war in Iran has caused economic chaos across the continent and his frequent browbeating of European leaders is a headache they could do without.

So Europe will be watching for two things tonight — firstly, an election that leaves Trump so weakened at home that he’s somehow more stymied abroad. This feels optimistic: Foreign affairs remain the White House’s prerogative whichever party controls Congress, and history shows that presidents tend to have an even greater overseas focus in their final years in office.

Second, European leaders will be watching for any hint of the direction the U.S. might be headed in 2028. Any prospect of a 48th president with a more traditional American view of the world — embracing NATO, Europe and free trade — would be warmly welcomed.

But more important still would be any sign that the MAGA movement itself is on the wane. Europe knows full well from the Joe Biden presidency that any reversion to a more conventional president is only going to be temporary for as long as the Republican Party remains of a MAGA mindset.

Jamie Dettmer is an associate editor and a foreign affairs columnist at POLITICO.

If Democrats do as well as expected in today’s U.S. midterm elections, champagne corks will pop across Europe. But those raising a glass may want to think about the morning after.

A Democratic takeover of Congress is unlikely to offer Europe immediate relief. Constrained at home, Trump would still be free to focus on foreign policy and trade, where the U.S. executive branch faces relatively few congressional checks — increasing the risk of fresh disputes and tougher demands on Europe.

“It would be a mistake for Europeans to assume there will be warmer transatlantic relations,” said Wolfgang Ischinger, the veteran German diplomat and outgoing chair of the Munich Security Conference. “My assumption is the exact opposite will happen.”

A recent EU-wide survey found 58 percent of respondents rooting for the Democrats, compared with just 18 percent for Donald Trump’s Republicans. But while opinion polls suggest the U.S. president’s European critics will get their wish, they’d better avoid any triumphalism or crowing, counsels Ischinger.

“There will be voices here in Europe, some important ones, who’ll want to celebrate and congratulate the Democrats, but I think that would be poisonous,” he told POLITICO. 

“I’d advise my European friends to be restrained and avoid creating any pretext for the White House to be mad at Europe — that is any more than it already is,” he added with a chuckle.

Others are skeptical that reticence will make any difference. They include Nathalie Tocci, a former adviser to two EU foreign policy chiefs.

“To be honest, I don’t think Trump really needs any reasons or excuses to lash out at Europe,” she said. And it will be hard not to celebrate, she argued, if you “care about democracy,” given the ties between Trump’s MAGA movement and populist, far-right politicians in Europe.

A setback for Trump could lift the spirits of Europe’s liberals and centrists, who have seized on electoral rebuffs for Hungary’s Viktor Orbán and Serbia’s Aleksandar Vučić as evidence that populism has peaked — or at least plateaued.

That conclusion may be premature. The polling strength of France’s Marine Le Pen and recent gains by Germany’s Alternative for Germany suggest populist politics remain potent. Still, a rebuff for MAGA would give liberals and centrists a morale boost, Tocci said.

But would a Democratic victory benefit the EU in the near term? “Not much,” Ischinger said. A Democratic takeover of Congress would have little practical impact on Europe and could even make matters worse.

“If Donald Trump finds himself ensnared in congressional investigations, impeachment procedures and is constrained on the domestic front by a hostile Congress, he’s bound to gravitate to where Congress is weak — on foreign and trade policies,” he added. “We need to brace ourselves for not more harmonious transatlantic relations but more acrimony and even more Trump demands on Europe.”

Kurt Volker, who served as George W. Bush’s last U.S. ambassador to NATO, is of the same mind. 

“Don’t expect much change from the Trump administration,” he cautioned. “Congress will investigate everything. They will investigate Trump, his family, Trump family businesses, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, Elon Musk, Pete Hegseth and Kash Patel at the FBI. Trump will fight this all the way, and it’ll be a big circus.” 

“Okay, the Democrats will be much more supportive of Ukraine and NATO, but they can’t direct Trump to do things,” he added. “They can approve money, but Trump just turns around and says, ‘Well, I don’t have to spend it.’”

Volker predicts Trump will step up his use of pocket rescission, a contested legal theory for clawing back congressionally appropriated funds. “That has been the pattern on so many things, tariffs most notably,” said Volker. “But on lots of things, he’d prefer to run out the clock and fight in the courts.”

The former ambassador said he’s unsure which way Trump will go when it comes to Iran — relaunch military operations or leave the crisis for Europe and Asia to solve. On NATO and reducing U.S. deployments in Europe, Volker suspects Trump will be careful out of fear of domestic backlash.

Then again, Trump is “extraordinarily hard to predict,” said Bronwen Maddox, director and CEO of Britain’s Chatham House think tank. “Maybe he’ll retreat after a bit of initial lashing out at the election result and focus on his planned monuments, including the White House ballroom,” she speculated hopefully but without too much conviction.

Maddox sees no cause for celebration, whatever the election result or Trump’s response. European leaders should instead reflect on how much the U.S. has changed. “American voters elected Trump twice, and even if they now turn on him, those elections show their focus is now inward,” she said.

Europeans were slow to grasp the significance of MAGA and how long the movement might endure, Maddox said. She believes too little recognition remains of how much the American political landscape has changed — including the Democratic Party. 

“I don’t think America sees itself in Europe in the way it used to,” she said. “For me, that message has been clear for some time.”

CORRECTION: An earlier version of this article misstated Wolfgang Ischinger’s role at the Munich Security Conference. He is its outgoing chair.

The jet lag has barely worn off, but Brussels is already grappling with what its new relationship with Canada could actually look like.

After the 48-hour whirlwind EU-Canada summit in Montreal, Prime Minister Mark Carney has given the EU six months to hash out what “associate membership” actually means. On the show, Zoya Sheftalovich and Nick Vinocur unpack the deals struck at the summit and what lies ahead for the relations between the two powers.

Next, after last month’s unwieldy European Council summit drew criticism of its president, Antonio Costa, he’s doubling down on his push to secure a budget by 2027. This week, his head of cabinet Pedro Lourtie will be holding so-called “confessionals” with national governments to get a sense of where they stand.

And finally, Europe’s coffin makers are afraid Chinese competitors could be the death of their business.

Questions, comments? Please write in! Find us on WhatsApp here or at +32 491 05 06 29.

Articles mentioned in this episode:

• EU and Canada’s 6-month test of commitment.
• 8 things we learned at the EU-Canada summit.
• Europe’s coffin-makers warn Chinese imports could be death knell for industry.

MONTREAL, Canada — The European Union and Canada have agreed to build the closest possible relationship. Over the next six months, they will have to define what that means — and whether Canada can become the EU’s first, and perhaps only, associate member.

A summit in Montreal last week highlighted the urgency behind the budding relationship. Both sides say their partnership is positive and not directed against any country. But it is also driven by mutual need: to shore up supply chains, pool expertise and reduce reliance on the United States and China.

Mark Carney told POLITICO in an interview straight after the summit that the two sides should not be tailoring their partnership to cope with the potential reactions of other powers. “We’re not adjusting [based on] what the U.S. might think, what China might think, what … Russia might think,” he said. The goal, the Canadian prime minister explained, is to help both sides “withstand shocks” and prevent rivals from exploiting critical dependencies.

The test of that plan comes in six months, when the European Commission will meet with the Canadian government to see what progress has been made. One diplomat involved in the talks, granted anonymity to speak freely, said the meeting, which will be held in March before next year’s EU-Canada summit in Brussels, should make clear how far the relationship can develop and whether Ottawa is really on track for associate membership.

In the months ahead, there will be plenty of issues that could distract EU leaders. Governments must negotiate the bloc’s next seven-year budget, amid deep divisions over its size and spending priorities. Plus, a series of elections in some of the EU’s biggest countries, including Spain, France, Italy and Poland, will make concentrating on Canada a tall order.

Deal first, definition later

The joint declaration signed in Montreal commits both sides to defining the concept of “associate membership” by their 2027 summit. In the meantime, they have a slate of agreements and work plans to put into practice.

That includes a digital trade agreement and a competition deal signed in Montreal, plus Canada’s participation in the EU’s high-performance computing partnership. They also agreed on a new framework for cooperation between EU border force Frontex and the Canada Border Services Agency. Ottawa said it intends to join the EU’s Ukraine Support Loan facility.

The declaration sets out further work on critical raw materials and energy, including a feasibility study into long-term liquefied natural gas exports to Europe and exploring ways to jointly stockpile strategic resources. It also calls for cooperation on subsea cables, artificial intelligence and research, closer financial links, Arctic security, and disaster response. Canada and the EU will begin talks on deeper Canadian participation in Erasmus+, the EU’s education and youth program.

The summit also saw the launch of the Alliance for the Future, a broader partnership plan that could eventually include Japan, South Korea and Australia. It aims to build resilient supply chains and coordinate on economic security, so partner nations do not inadvertently harm one another with trade measures as they respond to Chinese overcapacity and U.S. tariffs.

But that could be easier said than done, with both Europe and Canada keen to avoid breaching World Trade Organization rules with their arrangements.

That concern is already visible in the debate over “Buy Canadian” and the EU’s proposed “Made in Europe” rules, both of which seek to favor homegrown suppliers. Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said in Montreal that Brussels intends to ensure Canada is not disadvantaged by the EU’s Industrial Accelerator Act — proposed legislation encouraging European businesses to go greener through subsidies and payment schemes. The ball is now in Carney’s court to offer similar assurances to European businesses under Buy Canadian.

Semantics breakdown

The summit’s biggest political snag came down to two words.

Von der Leyen opened the door to Canada becoming the EU’s first “associate member” in her State of the Union speech in September. But Germany blocked the term from being included in the joint declaration, saying the concept is vague and undefined. Other EU capitals said they also wanted to know what the arrangement would entail before fully committing to it.

The wrangle over the label overshadowed the substance of the summit and visibly frustrated both Carney and the European contingent. Asked about Germany’s objections, Carney told POLITICO it was “a very internal European issue.”

The dispute highlights Ottawa’s challenge: even if the Canadian government and the Commission agree on a plan, any formal arrangement must navigate 27 EU governments with their own concerns, pet industries and foibles.

The real reason for Berlin’s opposition remains unclear, with one EU diplomat describing the kerfuffle as an “embarrassment.”

One theory among senior EU officials and diplomats is that Germany was smarting because it wanted the term to be used for Ukraine earlier this year — only for other EU countries and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy himself to reject the idea.

The Le Pen test

The EU-Canada partnership is meant to rest on shared, centrist values. But what happens if political shifts in the EU’s two largest countries change what underpins the friendship?

The French presidential election in April could bring Marine Le Pen to power, while the Alternative for Germany has made gains in successive regional elections.

Carney told POLITICO he would work with whichever leaders voters choose, while drawing a line between cooperation and agreement. “My responsibility is to work with, whether it’s provincial premiers or leaders of other countries, in the best interest of Canada,” he said. But he added that “working with and having agreement on are two different things.”

Carney said democratic outcomes could change Europe’s priorities, but argued that cooperation could still deepen.

The six-month stocktake will show whether that confidence holds.

KOREAN DEMILITARIZED ZONE — Friedrich Merz ended his five-day trip to Asia on Friday reflecting on Europe’s past.

After visiting the blue barracks where the armistice that ended the Korean War was signed in 1953, in the Joint Security Area where North and South Korean troops stand face-to-face, the German chancellor addressed the obvious parallels between his country’s history and Korea’s present.

“Thoughts are running through my mind about how grateful we may be that in Germany we haven’t had to experience this for 36 years,” Merz said.

The remarks concluded a tour of Singapore, Japan and South Korea, where the chancellor was challenged by Asian capitals over security and trade cooperation — and often reminded of how the region’s turmoil are intertwined with Europe’s precarious moment.

‘Collective security’

One only has to look across the border. Shortly before Merz arrived in the demilitarized zone, North Korea fired about 10 short-range ballistic missiles toward the Sea of Japan. The chancellor’s greatest security concerns at home — Russia’s war against Ukraine and Moscow’s threat to Europe — are increasingly becoming problems in the Asia-Pacific region as well.

The fact that Pyongyang is able to launch so many ballistic missiles, testing and expanding its long-range strike capabilities, is directly linked to its cooperation with Russia. North Korea has been sending soldiers to the Russian front in Ukraine for two years and in return benefited from combat experience and technology transfers.

North Korean state television on Thursday showed leader Kim Jong Un with new military drones, including a potential stealth drone, underscoring the great strides the country is also making in drone development. These are serious security issues that other countries in the region, including Japan, cannot ignore.

Besides provocations from Pyongyang, there is China, which is not only becoming increasingly dominant in trade but also casting its eye toward Taiwan, making far-reaching territorial claims in the South China Sea and putting strong pressure on critics such as Japan. And there is Russia, which is forging close military ties with Beijing and carrying out joint bomber flights with the Chinese air force near the Japanese border.

“Russia’s war against Ukraine is ever-present here in the region,” Merz told reporters following his visit to the border. “There is no longer such a thing as unilateral security in the world, only collective security,” he added, underscoring his call to “work closely” with Japan, South Korea and Singapore “on security policy issues” and in the defense industry.

Middle power struggle

This German offer has generated considerable interest. Given Berlin’s position as Ukraine’s largest supporter, German defense companies are highly active in the war-torn country and cooperate with local manufacturers, giving them access to rapid technological developments. This makes them attractive to Asian partners who fear falling behind North Korea and China as they benefit from their cooperation with Russia.

The fact that the chancellor traveled with a large business delegation — the kind previously seen only on visits to China — underscores this focus. Among the companies were several defense firms, including aircraft manufacturer Airbus, air defense manufacturer Diehl Defense and drone specialist Quantum-Systems. Japan welcomed the cooperation, with Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi speaking of a “premium partnership” with Germany.

Yet Merz’s trip was about more than defense deals. The chancellor used his visits to warn against violations of international law by Russia but also increasingly by China and the United States. “We are on the threshold of a new era,” he said in Tokyo. “We are witnessing how the major powers are pursuing a new policy and how international rules are eroding.”

His words echoed a similar warning issued by German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier during a parallel trip to Beijing. “An order that was never perfect, but at least served as the foundation for international cooperation, is eroding. Lawlessness looms. I see this as a great danger for all of us,” said Steinmeier.

To counter this trend, Merz built on Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s proposal that “middle powers” should team up to better defend themselves in the face of unreliable major powers and toothless international organizations.

In speeches in Tokyo and Seoul, Merz proposed a “global political alliance for rules-based trade.” Medium-sized powers such as the EU, Asian nations, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and the South American Mercosur trade bloc should “coordinate” and “act together” if others challenged international rules “or if economic pressure were to be exerted,” said the chancellor.

It’s a thinly veiled reference to Chinese threats to restrict access to rare earth metals and the tariff threats made by U.S. President Donald Trump. Merz also said the alliance could strengthen the World Trade Organization and seek to unblock the nomination of judges to the organization’s appellate body.

“Considerable concern” over Franco-German car deal

During his trip, however, Merz experienced firsthand just how difficult it is to put such an ambitious proposal into practice when special interests complicate an alliance of small and medium-sized powers.

This became most evident when the Asian countries issued a sharp protest over planned “Made in Europe” rules for the car industry. Under a proposal agreed by Merz and French President Emmanuel Macron, Brussels would restrict subsidies for cars to vehicles produced inside the EU, Switzerland and the U.K., putting foreign manufacturers at a disadvantage.

In polite but direct terms, South Korea’s President Lee Jae Myung told reporters he had “asked Merz for support so that Korea would be treated like the EU member states.” A similar complaint was voiced in Japan.

“That was, in fact, a topic that surprised me a bit, given the intensity with which it was presented,” Merz told reporters before returning to Germany on Friday evening. He admitted that the Franco-German proposal had “sparked considerable concern in the region — in Singapore, Japan, and Korea — that we may be facing a new wave of protectionism in Europe, that we are closing ourselves off from other countries.”

Merz vowed to take those complaints “very seriously” and raise them at the next EU leaders’ summit. Yet they are a sharp reminder of how much industry-specific details can hamper the implementation of his proposed broader alliance.

The chancellor’s trip also revealed challenges when it comes to security cooperation: A request for Japan to supply Patriot anti-aircraft missiles to Ukraine fell flat. And it remains unclear whether Tokyo continues to contribute several billions to a new Ukraine loan next year, as Brussels hopes.

A Japanese diplomat, granted anonymity to discuss sensitive matters, posed a different question to the German delegation: “How exactly will you help us if China attacks Taiwan?”

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German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said he was “surprised” by the intensity of the pushback from East Asian countries against planned “Made in Europe” rules for the bloc’s car sector.

Asian countries strongly protested a plan agreed by Merz and French President Emmanuel Macron, under which Brussels would restrict car subsidies to vehicles produced inside the EU, Switzerland and the U.K.

South Korean President Lee Jae Myung told reporters that he had “asked Merz for support so that Korea would be treated like the EU member states.” A similar complaint was voiced in Japan.

“That was, in fact, a topic that surprised me a bit, given the intensity with which it was presented,” Merz told reporters before returning from his five-day tour of East Asian countries on Friday evening.

Merz admitted the Franco-German proposal had “sparked considerable concern in the region — in Singapore, Japan, and Korea — that we may be facing a new wave of protectionism in Europe, that we are closing ourselves off from other countries.”

The chancellor vowed to take those complaints “very seriously” and to raise them at the next EU leaders’ summit. The bloc’s leaders are set to meet in Dublin on Nov. 13 for an informal gathering.

Merz proposed a “global political alliance for rules-based trade” between so-called middle powers in speeches in Seoul and Tokyo. The EU, Asian nations, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and the South American Mercosur trade bloc should “coordinate” and “act together” if others challenged the international rules “or if economic pressure were to be exerted” — a thinly veiled reference to Chinese threats to restrict access to rare earth metals or the tariff threats from U.S. President Donald Trump.

But the pushback from South Korea and Japan are a sharp reminder of how industry-specific frictions can hamper the implementation of the larger alliance proposed by Merz.

BRUSSELS — The European Union and Canada have agreed a framework to invest more European money in Canadian critical minerals, as part of a broader agreement to boost raw material and energy trade between the two jurisdictions.

The EU confirmed Friday it had concluded negotiations that would “facilitate European investments in critical Canadian resources, in particular in critical raw materials,” following talks between senior EU officials and the Canadian government in Montreal. The investments would be made through the European Investment Bank, the EU’s lending arm.

The two jurisdictions will also carry out a “long-term feasibility study” on exporting Canadian liquified natural gas to Europe. Canada is rich in gas but currently doesn’t have infrastructure to liquefy and export it from its east coast.

The commitments are part of a much broader effort to deepen the relationship between the EU and Canada, who see themselves as likeminded democracies in a world that is increasingly pulling away from the international rules-based order that has dominated since World War II.

“[W]e will accelerate collaboration to support investment in critical raw materials projects, both in Canada and in the EU, along the value chain, including extraction, processing, refining, manufacturing and recycling activities,” the EU and Canada said in a joint statement.

They also said they would “explore cooperation opportunities on raw materials projects in third countries identified as projects of common interest.”

The joint statement, which aims to build “an even closer association between Canada and the EU,” also covered security, trade, tech and artificial intelligence, competition policy, financial services and cultural exchange.

MONTREAL — Prime Minister Mark Carney wanted the landmark EU-Canada summit to be about much more than “nomenclature.” He got what he craved. 

Over a whirlwind 48 hours in Montreal, top officials from Brussels and Ottawa huddled to pursue agreements on critical minerals, super computers and defense cooperation.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, European Council President António Costa and Carney gathered as U.S. President Donald Trump continues to upend the global order and Chinese dominance of critical markets squeezes middle powers. 

Those challenges have pushed the EU and Canada into a rapidly developing partnership that eclipses anything attempted by Brussels with a non-member country since the bloc was formed. 

Here are all the key things POLITICO learned during the EU-Canada meetings. 

Carney finally embraced ‘associate membership’

Initially reluctant, the Canadian prime minister came around by the end of the summit to endorse von der Leyen’s controversial label for the global alliance the EU and Canada are building. 

Carney set a six-month deadline to firm up the ground rules of what “associate membership” is, trialing an induction process that could be a model for other non-European countries.

“With Canada becoming the European Union’s first associate member, in the coming months we will determine the full substance, scale and scope of this new form of membership,” he said Friday. 

Carney added he will meet periodically with von der Leyen to track progress, including a return trip for the College of European Commissioners to meet with their Canadian counterparts in March.

Got minerals

Both Canadian and EU officials are walking away from the summit with at least one major win: the framework agreement signed between the European Investment Bank and Canada that will open up the bloc’s lending arm to Canadian critical minerals crucial for future tech. 

That means batteries, circuit boards and semiconductors, which all require lithium, nickel, cobalt and other critical raw materials that, as of now, the EU is largely dependent on China to score.

The deal helps wean the Europeans off a politically volatile critical minerals dealer, for a more reliable Canadian supplier. 

The agreement does not immediately unlock funding for specific projects, but it supports pathways for future investments in Canadian mining and helps link the bloc’s supply chains with Canada’s.

Canada’s energy ambitions still point east

Critical minerals aren’t the only Canadian natural resource on the menu for Europeans. 

Carney has said he wants to make Canada an “energy superpower” and leverage huge stores of oil and liquefied natural gas in his country for export. The only problem: Most of it is in the western province of Alberta, far from Europe.

But the summit concluded with a commitment by both sides to a “long-term feasibility study” on exporting LNG to Europe via the east coast or Arctic ports closer to the bloc. 

“There’s also a huge opportunity in terms of bringing some of the fossils and gas from Canada to the EU,” said a Commission official, who was granted anonymity to talk about sensitive diplomatic negotiations. “The old infrastructure in Canada was built north-south for historical reasons, but now there is talk of starting to build east-west.”

Making nice with Washington? Don’t hold your breath.

As Europeans and Canadians preached deeper ties, Sen. Peter Welch (D-Vt.) was there doing damage control.

Welch, whose state is a little over an hour’s drive south of Montreal, spent Thursday reassuring business leaders that U.S. relations with Canada and beyond can, some day, get back to normal. When exactly, he couldn’t say for sure.

During his trip, Welch met with Quebec Chief Trade Negotiator Pascal Paradis, tourism industry leaders, businesses and manufacturers nailed by tariffs, and hit up a Eurasia Group lunch.

Tuesday’s U.S. midterm elections could offer a waypoint to warmer relations. But Welch loaded his optimism about Democratic Party fortunes with caveats.

“I think we’ll be successful, but you’ll still have a president who abuses his authority and acts in arbitrary ways,” he said. “It’s not like I can give any assurance that things are going to change.” 

Unspoken in the communiqué: China

Canada and the EU pledged deeper cooperation on pumping more European money into the mining, production and refining of critical minerals, a response to China’s dominance of the global market for those minerals. But the final summit communiqué steers clear of naming specific countries. 

Canadian Defense Minister David McGuinty was more candid.

“China has been vacuuming up as many critical minerals as they can throughout the world, particularly in the African continent, cutting deals, usually infrastructure for critical mineral deals. That could be a soccer stadium, for example. It could be a light rail system,” McGuinty told POLITICO at the summit Friday.

“It turns out that Canada’s got a huge amount of critical minerals, and basically all 10 of the 10 critical minerals on the short list for NATO, which the United States is also aware of. We’re going to not only exploit, but we intend to move to transform,” he said.

The common language: Sovereignty

Outside the summit, many Montrealers were oblivious to the landmark meeting taking place in the city. Inside, the vibe was existential.

The trio of leaders — Carney, von der Leyen and Costa — invoked individual and collective sovereignty as reasons to pursue a closer alliance to weather “new storms” stoked by climate change, challenges to democratic norms and the weaponization of trade. Carney has notably claimed concerns about encroachment on Canada’s sovereignty as a reason to walk away from trade talks with the Trump administration. 

“Today is about sovereignty,” Carney said. “We’re building the industries and infrastructure that underwrite our collective security.”

Quebec wanted a seat at the table

The summit came to Montreal weeks after Quebec — the French-speaking province in Canada that hosted the summit — elected a separatist government. Quebec shares powers with Ottawa and had its own seat in the CETA trade talks with the EU over a decade ago; and it had sought a similar role at this summit. 

But Ottawa refused to let new Premier Paul St-Pierre Plamondon address the summit, so he boycotted it, complaining he was being asked to “serve shrimp cocktail.” 

Carney accused him of leaving “an empty chair.” It stayed empty, even though six former Quebec premiers came to dinner.

The Europeans did not escape unscathed. The Quebec press panned von der Leyen’s English-only speech on the opening day as a faux pas in Canada’s largest francophone metropolis. Commission Executive Vice-President Teresa Ribera did little better, telling Radio-Canada in French that, for Brussels, summits like this are between national governments.

Bagel diplomacy

In a town where the original heated rivalry persists between two bagel shops, von der Leyen couldn’t resist picking a side with a photo-op at St-Viateur. 

Sorry Fairmount. 

MONTREAL — Canada embraced the European Union’s offer of “associate membership” after a two-day summit at which Brussels and Ottawa gave themselves until next June to work out what their new relationship will look like.

Prime Minister Mark Carney’s endorsement of the proposal by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen followed weeks of hesitation, a hostile response from U.S. President Donald Trump and pushback from EU heavyweight Germany.

“In the coming months, we will determine the full substance, scale, and scope of this new form of membership,” Carney told a press conference on Friday at the end of the two-day summit at the Port of Montreal. 

“Today, we move towards associate membership for Canada,” Carney said, describing it as “the deepest possible partnership short of accession.”

The two sides have set a June 2027 deadline to determine the terms and boundaries of their intensifying relationship — an alliance that comes with a payment schedule. Carney danced around a question pressing him on how much associate membership will cost the Canadian public.

“We don’t view this as paying, personally,” Carney said, stressing the alliance as a “positive” project.

Von der Leyen and European Council President António Costa, standing either side of Carney, presented the experiment as a necessary survival strategy to thrive in an increasingly dangerous world.

“The concept of an associate member is uncharted territory but we have the ambition, trust and creativity to shape it together,” Von der Leyen told reporters. “To be crystal clear, this is not a partnership against anybody, but for our common strength.”

Canadian government officials who spoke to reporters after the press conference confirmed legislation won’t be necessary to legitimize Canada’s EU associate membership status.

“Our relationship is so special that we want to create something new — to go beyond a simple association, everything short of a full EU membership,” said Costa, pitching a new model for non-European countries to integrate more closely with the bloc. “Our association will be the closest, deepest and most unique of its kind.”

Irritants persist

Despite the upbeat rhetoric, some longstanding trade disputes remained unresolved after the summit.

Carney told reporters the two sides had reached an agreement on carveouts from a landmark EU anti-deforestation law, but Canadian government officials subsequently walked back his assertion.

The issue remains part of ongoing trade discussions, one official said, noting progress in addressing what Canada views as flaws in the legislation. The officials were granted anonymity to discuss sensitive diplomatic and trade negotiations.

Another irritant has been whether Canada would qualify for “Made in Europe” status under the EU’s Industrial Accelerator Act, a landmark measure that would seek to channel public procurement spending in sectors ranging from green energy to automotive toward locally produced goods. 

Von der Leyen said the regulation proposed earlier this year by the Commission foresaw including Canada as a free-trade partner, but added that it was now subject to review by EU lawmakers and governments.

“The Industrial Accelerator Act has been proposed by the Commission to include all countries with whom we have free-trade agreements. So automatically Canada would be in,” she said in response to a question. 

“Of course now the proposal has to go through the co-legislative process. But our proposal is very clear in including Canada.”

Despite months of preparations, the summit itself was chaotic, with agenda details confirmed at short notice and bilateral meetings split between two locations. The informal arrangements were intended to encourage more face time between EU commissioners and Canadian ministers, who are set to see much more of each other.

Canadian ministers have been invited to attend more meetings with their EU counterparts as part of a plan to deepen political alignment. Recent participation by Foreign Affairs Minister Anita Anand and International Trade Minister Maninder Sidhu in informal EU meetings has served as a trial run.

Carney himself is expected in Dublin in two weeks, having accepted Costa’s invitation to join an informal European Council meeting.

America is heading to the polls for the midterm elections — and Europe is watching closely. With the outcome set to have consequences far beyond Washington, from trade to defense, we’re bringing you a special episode of The Conversation, hosted by POLITICO’s Dasha Burns.

Dasha sits down with two political strategists working behind the scenes in some of America’s most consequential races: Republican T.W. Arrighi and Democrat Lis Smith. They take stock of the race, reveal what goes into running a high-stakes campaign and explore what’s shaping the battle for American voters.

If you have a question or comment, don’t hesitate! Message us on our WhatsApp here or at +32 491 05 06 29.

Prime Minister Andy Burnham will have an unofficial goal when he meets members of Britain’s former empire next week: Avoid a fight about slavery reparations.

Good luck, as they say, with that.

His predecessor Keir Starmer’s trip to the last Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting, at a beach resort on the Pacific island of Samoa in 2024, is still the stuff of rueful mutters in parts of Whitehall.

Lined up in a semi-circle of armchairs — “like an Alcoholics Anonymous meeting,” as one person briefed on the gathering put it — leaders from many of the 56 Commonwealth nations negotiated live over a 16-page communique on laptops and tablets. Starmer, a barrister, found himself personally redrafting a key paragraph about reparations on a screen surrounded by other leaders, said two further people briefed on the meeting.

The unusually intimate format of the leaders’ retreat meant they had no officials with them on the veranda, and Starmer had just one civil servant — No. 10’s private secretary for foreign affairs — stationed in a tent close by. His chief of staff Morgan McSweeney was woken at 4 a.m. London time by a phone call to talk about the strategy for reparations.

That, however, was never clearly resolved. The retreat dragged on hours late; some leaders left before it was even over. Starmer was frustrated and felt he had been “ambushed,” said one U.K. official involved in the 2024 trip. A second said they had blocked the incident from their memory. A third said Starmer was left “furious,” adding: “He went in blind and it was terrible for him.” A fourth said simply: “It was a disaster.” All were granted anonymity to speak frankly.

The eventual communique agreed on a “conversation towards forging a common future based on equity.” This fudge kicked the issue of reparations down the road — where it now lands in Burnham’s lap.

Britain’s new prime minister will touch down at the biennial summit in Antigua and Barbuda next week to find the issue still firmly on some Caribbean and African leaders’ minds.

At the United Nations in May, 123 countries passed a motion calling for “inclusive, good-faith dialogue on reparatory justice.” The U.K. abstained. Barbados PM Mia Mottley announced a manifesto from Caribbean leaders on the “moral, ethical and legal case” for reparations in June. Commonwealth Secretary-General Shirley Botchwey said last week that an apology for Britain’s role in the slave trade “wouldn’t hurt.”

The visit will be a test of how Burnham — who has a reputation for speaking off the cuff, especially on issues of moral justice — maintains a delicate U.K. government line that reparations are not “the answer,” as Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband told POLITICO last month. And Burnham will face that challenge in a unique spotlight: It will be his first overseas visit with King Charles III, who is the head of the Commonwealth.

POLITICO spoke to a dozen U.K. officials or politicians who were involved in the 2024 summit or the planning for Burnham’s upcoming visit. They painted a picture of acute anxiety in the British state over how to deal with calls for reparations from its former colonies; tensions between Downing Street and the Foreign Office over the handling of 2024; and serious questions in Whitehall about whether the summit is even useful for No. 10 — despite the king’s role leaving U.K. prime ministers little choice but to attend.

Burnham will not have to deal with the extreme jetlag and communications hurdles that dogged Starmer’s trip, which involved a 28-hour flight in each direction. But like Starmer, he will fly out at a time when his in-tray is crowded by other issues — not least the U.S. midterms happening at the same time and the domestic aftermath of his first budget, just unveiled this past Wednesday.

The first U.K. official quoted earlier in this story said: “There’s a sense that there can’t be a repeat of [2024] this time around.” The third U.K. official quoted above said: “I don’t understand why they’re making the same mistake. Does the prime minister really have to go?”

A No. 10 official, however, said Burnham made clear soon after taking power on July 20 that he was “very keen” to attend the summit. Miliband has “laid the groundwork so that things hopefully won’t be as tricky as they were in 2024,” this person added.

“Andy’s style is that he is an honest broker with people, and he will give an instinctive response to things,” the official said. “But the government’s position is clear that reparations are not seen as the right route. It’s a careful balancing act, but one that we’re well prepared for.”

Climate resilience fund in the works

One tactic for the current No. 10 will be to try to avoid talking about it public.

Downing Street has broken with recent precedent by deciding not to bring the usual “pack” of political journalists, taking a smaller media “pool” instead. This will limit the scope of questions that Burnham faces. (Political editors from news outlets, including POLITICO, have written to No. 10 to object to the arrangement.)

Timing could also allow the visit to slip under the radar. Burnham and Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband will be there alongside counterparts including Anthony Albanese of Australia and Mark Carney of Canada, creating a rare opportunity for them to discuss the implications of the U.S. midterm results in private. The symbolism, as “middle power” nations deal with a drift in U.S. relations under Donald Trump, would be obvious.

Officially, the agenda is to build an alliance that can boost these middle powers, along with the developing states that global summits usually overlook. 

The Commonwealth Secretariat — the London-based body that co-ordinates the summit — said the aim of next week’s gathering is “partnerships and investment,” including in climate and youth employment, and removing trade barriers.

Likewise, the U.K. Foreign Office has been working on a climate resilience fund for developing nations, two people with knowledge of the talks said. A third said conversations in the U.K. government had focused on mobilizing public and private finance, and improving access to finance for climate-vulnerable countries.

Three people with knowledge of the planning emphasized that this summit would be an opportunity to build on relations with countries that could discuss bilateral trade, though they did not name specific nations and no U.K. trade ministers are due at the event.

“There will obviously be trade and investment discussions with a range of partners,” said one of the three people, a U.K. government official, who also noted that the U.K. will raise the impacts of El Niño. “The bigger picture is that we want to use the Commonwealth network to deepen trade and investment links across its 56 members — that Commonwealth advantage is one of the reasons the grouping matters to the UK.”

‘Playing Scrabble with words’

But leaders at these events, known by the awkward acronym CHOGM, can raise whatever topics they wish — reparations included.

Denis O’Brien, the Irish telecoms billionaire who founded the Repair Campaign calling for financial reparations to the Caribbean in 2022, said: “The conversation has moved radically forward.” He urged Britain and other European nations to “start off with an apology and then have an engagement,” adding: “The Foreign Office and the prime minister’s office are playing Scrabble with words — and unfortunately they’re leaving King Charles, who is so highly respected in the Caribbean, in a very difficult position.”

Paul Boateng, the Labour peer who was Britain’s first Black Cabinet minister and now campaigns on the issue, said Caribbean nations “are going to be pressing it. This issue is not going to go away.” The recent UN resolution reinforced Caribbean and African nations’ argument, argued Boateng: “We can’t be seen to simply ignore it … We cannot hold the Foreign Office line that it changes nothing.”

That position cast a long shadow two years ago.

No. 10 flew to Samoa in 2024 insisting reparations were “not on the agenda,” even though the summit’s free-wheeling format meant the choice was effectively out of Downing Street’s hands. 

This message “went down like a bag of sick” with Caribbean nations who saw it as “colonial” and “arrogant,” recalled one person involved in conversations at the time.

The handling created tension between Downing Street and the Foreign Office, then led by David Lammy, who also attended, according to six other people with knowledge of the 2024 trip. 

One of the six people said No. 10 figures had expected the Foreign Office to better manage expectations among Commonwealth nations ahead of Starmer’s arrival. The person said: “No. 10 did not feel like they were well enough informed, and felt some of this could and should have been handled in advance. There was the feeling that both Lammy and the Foreign Office were institutionally pre-disposed to this sort of stuff and not shutting it down. The PM didn’t know what he was going into.”

A second person said: “​​The FCDO world does forget, sometimes, the politics of what’s going on in the U.K. It’s very institutionalized.”

A third person stressed that senior aides in No. 10 had blamed Foreign Office officials, not Lammy personally. Before Starmer left office this year, No. 10 had been drawing up plans for Starmer to skip this year’s CHOGM — and send Lammy as his representative. By then Lammy had been moved from the foreign office and was Starmer’s deputy prime minister.

Another of the six people countered that it was No. 10 that persisted, ahead of the 2024 summit, with a line that was too binary — reparatory justice, as campaigners prefer to call it, has a wide definition that includes support for climate adaptation and education — and failed to listen to Foreign Office warnings ahead of time about the strength of feeling among Commonwealth nations.

“The audit trail would completely exonerate David and the Foreign Office,” this person said. They argued No. 10 officials — who were keen to hold on to the mantle of fiscal responsibility ahead of Starmer’s first budget — had viewed the row too much through how it would be perceived by the right-wing Daily Mail newspaper.

Two other people with knowledge of the 2024 trip insisted they did not remember any significant friction between No. 10 and the Foreign Office. Lammy’s office did not immediately respond to an invitation to comment.

UK review mooted a scaled-back summit

More significantly, the 2024 summit also led to discussions in Whitehall about the set-up of CHOGM itself.

Lammy commissioned an internal review by Foreign Office officials on the Commonwealth in the wake of the 2024 summit, his former Special Adviser Ben Judah told POLITICO.

Judah said the review suggested reducing the frequency of CHOGMs to “every four or five years,” potentially aligned with the hosting of the Commonwealth Games, and seeking to remove the final communique and leaders’ retreat.

It suggested an investment conference in alternate years modeled on the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum, which could keep the Commonwealth branding but with no organizational role for the Secretariat, said Judah.

Judah suggested this would improve attendance at CHOGM, which is often patchy; India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi does not plan to attend next week’s summit, for example, though there will be a delegation led by External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar.  “The Indians think this thing is ridiculous and self-harming and just totally bizarre,” said Judah. “They’d be interested in a real investment conference, not this farce.”

A second former U.K. government official said they knew about the report, which has not been made public, adding that No. 10 figures under Starmer discussed similar concerns about the format of the Commonwealth summit after the Samoa visit.

The Foreign Office declined to respond to questions about the report when contacted by POLITICO, including when it was finalized or whether any of its recommendations were pursued. One Foreign Office official, however, stressed that it was not the U.K. government’s position and that any decisions about future CHOGM arrangements would be for Commonwealth members collectively.

The U.K. government official quoted on trade and investment earlier in this piece said: “The Commonwealth is more important to our geostrategic position now than at any time throughout its 80-year history. In today’s more divided, unpredictable world, the Commonwealth has the potential to be a powerful, values-based force for good in the world.

“This gives us a huge opportunity to drive U.K. interests and priorities — Commonwealth relationships have helped to drive global support for Ukraine, and it is hugely important for our work on climate.”

Funding pulled from reserves

Judah, however, argued that the Commonwealth Secretariat is a “broken institution” and Britain should wind down its involvement to focus on an investment summit instead.

CHOGM has ended up as a “platform for the reparations campaign,” argued Judah: “There’s nothing else on the agenda because it’s not a real international organization, and it’s not a real summit with deliverables.” The Commonwealth and Secretariat, he said, has “essentially been taken over by the only countries that are still really invested in them, which are the Caribbean countries supported by a few African countries, to push the reparations agenda.”

For some, that extends to questions about the way the Secretariat spends its money.

Two people with knowledge of the situation said part of this year’s CHOGM summit is being paid for out of the Secretariat’s reserves. “There is a real sense of concern about the malaise and drift of the organization,” argued one of the two people. “Financially it’s in a dire, dire state.”

A Commonwealth spokesperson responded: “The Commonwealth Secretariat accesses reserve funds for the biennial Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting and always with member country approval.”

Back in 2024, Starmer’s most senior aides privately raised the question about whether he should attend the Samoa summit at all. “We were overruled,” said another person who worked under him.

Whitehall officials initially assumed that Burnham would not go either, until he said otherwise. “To a lot of the Caribbean countries, the word [from officials] was that he wasn’t going to show,” said O’Brien. “I think people were taken aback by that.”

But despite Starmer’s experience in 2024, Burnham will attend. 

Among all other reasons, there is one very obvious one. “It’s very difficult for a prime minister not to go because the king goes,” said one person who worked under Starmer. “It’s important to him.”

Burnham’s ‘surer touch’

Once Burnham is in the room, campaigners hope he will at least be a listening ear.

Outside the prime minister’s Manchester office No. 10 North is a statue of Abraham Lincoln, commemorating the mill workers who refused to touch raw cotton picked by slaves.

Burnham referred to it in his first speech to the United Nations last month. “In 1862, people with little power used it to help those with none on the other side of the world,” he said. “The best change is change like that, bottom-up change led by people.”

The new prime minister “understands the importance of Manchester as the second great city of empire, and he has a surer touch than his predecessors,” argued Boateng. “We’ve got an opportunity to reset the relationship.”

What reparatory justice would look like is another matter. 

Previous estimates have suggested Britain should owe as much as £18 trillion, but the conversation is far more nuanced than talking about a single big number.

While Boateng argues that no measures should be taken off the table, he would begin with reforming the International Monetary Fund and World Bank to give more Commonwealth countries a meaningful seat at the table, and returning historic artefacts such as the Benin bronzes that are displayed in London’s British Museum. “The British Museum holds loot, literally loot. These are stolen goods,” he said.

Britain is working on debt relief too. Chancellor John Healey plans to make international finance for developing countries a key theme when Britain hosts G20 finance ministers next year. 

NGOs have urged Healey to make debt relief more generous by changing the G20’s common framework and UK domestic law, which sets the terms for 90% of debt that low-income countries owe to private lenders.

Maria Finnerty of Bond, the membership body for NGOs, said Britain “continues to play a role in enabling illicit financial flows through loopholes linked to the City of London and its overseas territories, amounting to the loss of billions from some Commonwealth countries.”

Miliband reflected all this in his POLITICO interview last month at the Labour Party Conference. While condemning the slave trade as “terrible,” he said his focus was on addressing current issues in countries “on the front line of the climate crisis, of the debt burden, of trying to reduce poverty in those countries.”

O’Brien is calling for monetary payments, however. Through the Repair Campaign, he wants to see the EU and U.K. make money available to the 15 Caribbean Community (CARICOM) countries — with a special case for Haiti — “each year for the next 75 years” for issues such as education, green energy and storm defenses to deal with climate change. 

O’Brien would not be drawn on a single figure, but suggested payments should supplement the national budget of each affected country by around 10% a year.

Asked if he had had conversations with the Foreign Office, O’Brien replied: “What do you think?

“I mean, we would like to. We’re approaching this in a very friendly way, taking a very, very sensitive period of history and trying to get results. We have the highest respect for the British government, and particularly the King. But it can’t go on forever.”

BRUSSELS — European coffin manufacturers are joining forces to ask Brussels to investigate Chinese imports, warning that low prices and potential customs loopholes are threatening an industry built around one of the continent’s most predictable markets: death.

A group of manufacturers — which until now had no dedicated lobby representation — has formed a coalition and met with European Commission officials, including from its trade department, the initiative’s organizers told POLITICO. The group is preparing an anti-dumping complaint — a request for the EU to investigate whether Chinese coffin makers are selling their products in Europe at unfairly low prices.

The industry says the damage is already being felt. Over the past five years roughly a quarter of European coffin manufacturers have shut down, their numbers falling from about 120 to 90, according to Folco Ciulli, a consultant helping coordinate the complaint.

“Smaller companies were unable to withstand competition from non-European importers,” Ciulli said, adding those that survived have absorbed only half the production previously handled by the businesses that closed.

The push follows an appeal by a group of EU lawmakers to Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič last year. The MEPs raised concerns about Chinese competition, and were told the industry could submit a formal trade complaint.

“The EU takes robust action to protect its industries from unfairly traded imports and at present has over 200 measures in place,” a Commission spokesperson said. They declined to confirm meetings with the manufacturers, saying contacts with industry over potential trade defense complaints are confidential.

The price of death

At the heart of the industry’s case is a stark price difference.

According to manufacturers’ estimates, producing a coffin in China costs roughly one-third as much as an equivalent product in Italy, even when the same type of wood is used.

The coalition — which has yet to agree on a name for itself — flags several factors it believes give Chinese producers an advantage, including state subsidies, export-related tax benefits, lower labor costs and cheaper timber. It also argues that Chinese manufacturers benefit from preferential raw-material supply chains, and that higher U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods have helped redirect production toward Europe.

But cheap prices alone don’t constitute dumping under EU trade rules.

To secure anti-dumping duties, European manufacturers must provide evidence that Chinese producers are selling coffins in the EU below their established normal value, that the EU industry is suffering material injury, and that dumped imports are responsible for that injury.

The coalition is therefore collecting detailed information on production costs, raw materials, labor and factory-gate prices to compare equivalent coffins manufactured in China and Europe.

Not adding up?

European coffin manufacturers are also examining a hypothesis that some coffins entering the EU from China are not being categorized as such by customs authorities.

Emiliano Inguscio, a mathematician hired by the industry to analyze trade and production data, said his calculations had identified an unexplained discrepancy equivalent to around 30,000 coffins a year in Italy.

“In theory, the number of coffins available for consumption should broadly correspond to domestic production plus imports, minus exports and adjusted for changes in inventories,” Inguscio explained.

Because demand for coffins is relatively predictable and closely linked to mortality, he argues, significant discrepancies could indicate that some imports are not being properly recorded.

The coalition is concerned that such shipments could escape accurate recording in import statistics, obscuring the true extent of Chinese competition.

This has led to a hypothesis that manufacturers have dubbed the “IKEA loophole,” by which some Chinese coffins arrive in Europe flat-packed, with their components declared to customs as wooden parts rather than finished funeral products. Once inside the EU, the pieces are assembled and sold as coffins, the theory goes.

The Commission confirmed that unassembled goods can still be classified as finished products under international customs rules, provided they retain the essential characteristics of the completed item. That means a flat-packed coffin cannot necessarily be treated simply as wooden components for customs purposes.

The industry has also raised a second hypothetical loophole: coffins being imported as packaging for other merchandise, rather than declared as commercial products in their own right.

A widening trade battle

The coffin-makers’ campaign reflects a broader shift in Europe’s trade disputes with China, as complaints about low-cost competition spread beyond strategic sectors such as electric vehicles, steel and chemicals to more traditional manufactured goods.

According to the Commission’s latest annual trade defense report, published in September, the EU launched 32 new trade defense investigations in 2025, nearly matching the previous year’s record.

Coffin-makers would not be the first relatively small, traditional European industry to win protection.

In January, the Commission imposed anti-dumping duties of between 56% and 60% on Chinese candles following an investigation into damage to an EU industry employing around 9,000 people across 80 companies.

MONTREAL — Prime Minister Mark Carney is positioning Ottawa’s C$1.6 billion investment in Canadian artificial intelligence company Cohere as a downpayment on his country’s national security. 

“We’re not waiting for the future of AI to be decided somewhere else by those we don’t know or … don’t trust,” Carney said Thursday in Montreal ahead of the start of the Canada-EU summit.

Carney framed the upcoming congress, which includes meetings Friday with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President António Costa, as a shared endeavor to build a stronger transatlantic alliance in the face of global disruption.

“Sovereignty now requires secure access to semiconductors, critical minerals, payment systems, clean energy technology, vaccines, space-based communications and artificial intelligence,” Carney said. “Canada is taking a major step forward in artificial intelligence.”

In a pre-summit speech earlier Thursday in Montreal, von der Leyen cited April’s multi-billion dollar merger between Cohere and German counterpart Aleph Alpha as a key piece of the deepening Canada-EU cooperation that is set to unfold at Friday’s talks on AI.

“Both Canada and Europe believe this technology should serve people. So we will work together to tackle head-on the safety and security issues of runaway AI. We will develop together rules and standards and strong global governance,” she said.

Carney said Canada was making a commercial investment alongside private investors including Nvidia, Bell and Germany’s Schwarz Group.

Cohere co-founder and CEO Aidan Gomez announced the initial close of its Series E funding round on Thursday, which is targeting up to C$7 billion at a C$35.7 billion valuation.

Gomez joined Carney at Mila, the Quebec Artificial Intelligence Institute, for the Canadian portion of the funding announcement. 

“We believe that artificial intelligence would become one of the defining technologies of this century, and that Canadians should help build it, shape it and benefit from it,” Gomez said, standing next to the Canadian leader. 

The Canada-EU summit is unfolding against the backdrop of economic threats by U.S. President Donald Trump against both transatlantic partners.

Carney dismissed suggestions Thursday that the summit could draw reprisals by Trump against the participants. “This is a process which we’re doing absolutely in the interest of the Canadians, but ultimately the U.S. will see that,” he said.

MONTREAL, Canada — European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said Thursday she aims to bring EU-Canada relations to the “highest level possible,” touting potential associate member status in the bloc for Ottawa despite capitals having rejected the term a day earlier.

Von der Leyen’s overture comes on the eve of a landmark EU-Canada summit in Montreal where she and Prime Minister Mark Carney are due to announce plans for deeper cooperation against a backdrop of rising autocracy globally and unpredictable relations with U.S. President Donald Trump.

“Canada cannot become a full-fledged member of the EU because of geography, but we both want to bring our relationship to the highest level possible,” von der Leyen said in a speech hosted by the C.D. Howe Institute. “This is why we are discussing the idea of Canada becoming the first associate member of the European Union.”

No sooner had von der Leyen finished speaking than German Chancellor Friedrich Merz issued a statement saying that the EU and Canada were establishing an “Alliance for the Future” — without mentioning the associate member status. Germany has led the opposition to using the term, according to EU diplomats.

“We are fighting each other about a few words which von der Leyen pulled out of thin air,” one of those EU diplomats told POLITICO on Wednesday. “It’s a bit silly while we should have ambition and focus on other things. This is not our proudest moment.”

In a speech hours later on the sidelines of the summit, European Council President António Costa sought to bridge the divide by playing down the importance of the term.

“Tomorrow, the European Union and Canada will launch an Alliance for the Future of Europe,” he said in a nod to Merz’s statement and using the term preferred by Carney to describe the relationship.

“President von der Leyen has even put forward the bold idea of making Canada an ‘associate member’ of the European Union,” he said, noting “I share her ambition.”

“Whether that ends up being the term or not, one thing is clear: our partnership will be the closest, deepest and most unique of its kind,” he added.

The Commission president said in her speech that talks about associate membership would focus on deeper cooperation across AI, climate and energy policy, as well as bolstering shared work between the European Commission and the Canadian government as well as “Parliament to Parliament” and “Court to Court,” a reference to the European Court of Justice and Canada’s Supreme Court.

Such a status, she said, would be open “only to our closest partners outside of Europe, who are ready to open a new frontier together — and to chart the course together, to think beyond the terms of our partnership today, toward the most ambitious vision we can build.”

Von der Leyen’s use of the term associate membership — which she first mentioned in September — is likely to rub some EU capitals the wrong way after a group of countries led by Germany objected to including a reference to the term in a joint EU-Canada statement that was seen by POLITICO and is due to be published on Friday.

After days of talks, EU countries opted for softer language to describe the two sides’ future relations, including the “Alliance for the Future” — the term used by the Canadian side — as well as an “even closer association … short of full membership.”

EU diplomats have told POLITICO that while capitals support the broader aim of closer ties with Canada, they are wary of offering a status that has never been proposed before and whose legal contours remain undefined. Berlin had previously floated associate member status for Ukraine, including specific privileges such as observer status in the European Commission, but that effort was rejected.

Reacting to reports that EU countries would drop the “associate member” term, Carney said on Tuesday: “The good news is it doesn’t matter about specific names or nomenclature. What matters is the difference that it will make to the lives of Canadians … and Canada as a whole becoming a more independent, more sovereign nation, so we can live our lives as we choose.”

Both Carney and von der Leyen have cast this week’s summit as part of a broader effort to deepen ties at a time when both Ottawa and Brussels have clashed with the Trump administration, with von der Leyen warning in her speech about “deeper decay in the international order.”

“Alliances and assumptions that have enabled our prosperity and security are changing rapidly, and each nation or region is looking at how to secure its own interests and its own independence,” she said. “We can no longer let ourselves be shackled by the limits of the old-world order.”

This story has been updated. Camille Gijs contributed reporting from Brussels.

BRUSSELS — The European Union should ready its Anti-Coercion Instrument, otherwise known as its “trade bazooka,” for use against Washington over its push to raise EU drug prices, Belgium’s deputy prime minister has said.

Frank Vandenbroucke, who also serves as the country’s health minister, issued the call in a position paper published Thursday by the Egmont Institute think tank, co-authored with his deputy head of cabinet Gloria Ghéquière.

He also said the EU should be ready to suspend the tariff concessions it granted to Washington under the Turnberry trade deal from August 2025 if the U.S. imposes additional duties on European goods.

The Trump administration has been pressuring European governments to pay more for medicines under its “most-favored-nation” policy as it seeks to bring American drug prices into line with those in other wealthy countries.

Washington argues that Americans are unfairly shouldering the costs of pharmaceutical research and development, while Europeans reap the benefits.

The MFN policy ties American drug prices to the lowest prices charged in a basket of wealthy countries, including France, Germany and Italy. The U.S. has already concluded MFN pricing agreements with 26 pharma companies, which have agreed to benchmark the prices of drugs supplied to the U.S. Medicaid program.

The intended effect is for drugs manufacturers to either increase prices in third countries, to lower their U.S. prices, or both.

Washington is also ramping up pressure on individual member countries to pay more for their drugs. In June, the U.S. launched a so-called Section 301 investigation into Germany’s alleged “persistent underpayment” for innovative drugs. The investigation could lead to additional tariffs, exceeding the 15% ceiling agreed under Turnberry.

Capitals are banding together to counter the U.S. pressure. At an informal meeting in Dublin last week, ministers from Ireland, France, Germany, Italy, Denmark, Sweden, the Netherlands and Belgium discussed creating an EU-wide pharmaceutical task force to coordinate their response.

“If we don’t work together and act as a team, countries are inevitably tempted to go it alone,” French Trade Minister Nicolas Forissier told POLITICO.

In the paper, Vandenbroucke and his colleague argue that Brussels should open an ACI investigation in response to Washington’s drug pricing policy. The instrument allows the EU to impose tariffs and restrictions on services in response to foreign threats to trade if backed by a qualified majority of member countries.

“The procedure is quite heavy, but already opening an examination would have an effect of its own,” the paper argues.

The authors also highlight a clause in Pfizer’s MFN agreement requiring it to share additional revenue from higher prices outside the U.S. with the American government. “Higher foreign payments thus become a source of revenue for the American government itself,” they write.

The deputy PM questioned the underlying basis of the policy. Because the U.S. market is so lucrative compared to all the rest, drugmakers would accept withdrawing from third countries as long as it meant keeping U.S. prices high.

Vandenbroucke, an economist by training, said the net effect would likely be an extreme increase in European drug prices — or the withdrawal of drugs from the market — while producing comparatively modest price cuts in the U.S.

According to one forecast cited in the paper, prices could triple in countries used as benchmarks, while U.S. prices would fall by just 7.5% to 15%.

“The consequences would reach well beyond the medicines budget, putting pressure on the solidarity that universal insurance is designed to secure,” the authors write.

Quebec’s separatist premier says that he will boycott the EU-Canada summit that opens in Montreal on Thursday, warning European leaders that deals struck there without his government’s consent may not be applied in the country’s second-biggest province.

Paul St-Pierre Plamondon confirmed his absence late Wednesday in an open letter to the European delegation, which he posted on X. His announcement followed two days of public sparring with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney over Ottawa’s refusal to let him address the summit.

“This dynamic creates uncertainty as to the application of the agreements you could negotiate during the summit,” he wrote in French.

In the letter, St-Pierre Plamondon says Ottawa has “decided to sideline Quebec” from the talks. He says this leaves his government with “neither a chair at the negotiating table nor the opportunity to speak,” even though the summit is on Quebec soil.

Under Canada’s federal system, he argued, the provinces implement international agreements that fall within their powers. Without Quebec’s consent, a deal that runs against its interests “will simply not be implemented,” he wrote. He also accused Ottawa of withholding “critical information” on the negotiations.

He offered to meet European leaders “in the near future, in a more opportune context.” He will send Quebec’s chief diplomat, Pascal Paradis, to the summit in his place.

Carney said Wednesday his office had offered the premier the honor of welcoming the Commission president to Montreal, and a seat at the head table. “I hope he will reconsider,” he said. On Tuesday, the prime minister had accused St-Pierre Plamondon of choosing to “leave an empty chair again.”

The row has soured the upbeat mood around the summit, which Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President António Costa have billed as a milestone. Leaders will launch an “Alliance for the Future,” a framework for shared prosperity and economic security.

St-Pierre Plamondon’s letter says many of its topics fall under Quebec’s responsibility, including health, education and natural resources.

The premier has also pursued his own contacts with European leaders.

He spoke by phone with French President Emmanuel Macron on Monday, and said the two had agreed on a possible meeting in France in the coming weeks.

At working level, ties have held so far, and officials describe the relationship as constructive.

Hélène Drainville, Quebec’s delegate general in Brussels, told POLITICO last week that Quebec was in talks with the European Investment Bank and the Commission, and that “all the signals are green.”

Carney, Costa and von der Leyen are due to hold a joint press conference on Friday.

European leaders are descending on Montreal in a bid to forge closer ties with Canada.

On today’s show, host Zoya Sheftalovich catches up with Sarah Wheaton, who’s on the ground at the EU-Canada summit. They unpack what the talks could actually deliver — from defense and critical raw materials to space and AI — and the Trump-shaped shadow hanging over it all.

Next, Commission President Ursula von der Leyen may be here in Montreal, but back in Brussels, questions remain about her role in the EU’s Covid vaccine deal with Pfizer.

Finally: Eurovision has revealed its 2027 lineup — but the row over Israel’s participation is far from over.

Questions, comments? Please write in! Find us on WhatsApp here or at +32 491 05 06 29.

Articles mentioned in this episode:

• Our EU-Canada summit live blog.
• ⁠EU and Canada eye golden window to Trump-proof their ties.
• Eurovision confirms candidates for 2027 — but 2 EU countries are still on the fence.
• EU Public Prosecutor’s Office will be ‘killed softly for doing its job,’ says outgoing chief.

The EU and Canada are betting they can deepen their partnership while Donald Trump looks inward at the U.S. midterms — and before European elections upend the political calculus.

Their strategy is to push for the broadest possible upgrade and hope Trump is too busy campaigning to respond, four EU officials and two Canadian diplomats familiar with preparations for this week’s summit in Montreal said.

Trump, whose Republican Party is fighting to retain control of Congress in next week’s midterms, has called the EU’s offer of associate membership for Canada “laughable” and threatened “serious tariffs” if the two sides get too close.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President António Costa will join Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney for two days of talks on trade, security, energy, education and the Arctic on Thursday.

The summit “is a very strong statement,” said Mark Camilleri, president of the Canada and EU Trade and Investment Association. “I don’t think there’s any feeling that this is going to be some discreet get-together.”

Canada is also looking to move before Europe’s politics shift. Ottawa wants changes to the partnership that will outlast Trump and Marine Le Pen, whose National Rally is polling ahead in France and has criticized the EU-Canada trade pact, CETA, said a Canadian diplomat. All the officials and diplomats in this article were granted anonymity to speak frankly about the summit preparations.

Avoiding Trump’s ire

Brussels and Ottawa are pushing to strengthen their relationship, including by cooperating more closely on trade and defense, international engagement and institutional links, according to a draft joint statement obtained by POLITICO.

In her September State of the Union speech, von der Leyen emphasized that the EU-Canada alliance is “not against anyone else.” Yet officials acknowledge that a stronger alliance risks triggering retaliation from Trump.

Von der Leyen, Costa and Carney “are fully aware that the eyes of the world are upon them,” said Camilleri.

The Europeans and Canadians know “the U.S. is watching,” a senior EU official said, adding that the bloc and Canada were nevertheless proceeding with business as usual and pushing for the most expansive possible relationship with Ottawa.

Another possibility is that the summit yields only “nice pictures” and little substance, a third senior official said, making it less likely to “trigger” the president.

European capitals, EU institutions and Canada’s provinces are all waiting to see what von der Leyen and Carney agree on in their meeting, the Canadian diplomat said, adding it was impossible to pre-judge how Trump would react.

Shadow of Le Pen

For Ottawa, pressure comes from another direction: Europe’s electoral calendar and the rise of the far right.

With Spain, France, Poland and Italy all set to go to the polls in the next year, Canadian officials want to secure concrete gains while EU governments remain receptive to closer cooperation and keep the topic front of mind, before elections across the bloc risk shifting priorities and upsetting the political balance.

When Carney came to Strasbourg to lay out his vision for a closer alliance in September, he was heckled from the gallery by the far-right Alternative for Germany MEP Siegbert Droese, who led chants of “USA!”

But it’s France’s presidential election in April — and the prospect of Le Pen in office — that is causing the most concern, according to a second Canadian diplomat.

“It’s very fortunate we’re doing this summit now and not in six months,” the diplomat said, referring to the French election date.

Canada is pushing for big, bold “structural changes” in its relationship with the EU now that will outlast Trump and Le Pen, the diplomat added. Carney has grasped the moment’s rarity and urgency and will not leave the summit without securing major wins, the first Canadian diplomat said.

Another question is whether Brussels and Ottawa can upgrade their partnership without eventually drawing the U.S. president’s ire. The midterms might buy them some time, but the vote will not keep Trump busy forever.

Trump might be even more dangerous and more likely to take out his anger on the EU and Canada after the election, given that he will retain many of his tariff and foreign policy powers even if the Republicans lose Congress, the second Canadian diplomat warned.

“At the end of the day, his reaction could be anything,” Camilleri said. “We can only control what we can control.”

Mathieu Pollet contributed reporting.

Ask European Union leaders what they think of Mark Carney’s climate credentials, and you’ll get a gushing response.

“We see the world with the same eyes: from AI to climate change,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said in her State of the Union speech last month, where the Canadian prime minister was the guest of honor.

“Canada and the EU are very, very like-minded,” the bloc’s climate chief, Wopke Hoekstra, told POLITICO in an interview when asked about his hopes for climate collaboration between the two powers ahead of this week’s EU-Canada summit in Montreal.

But this rosy view sidesteps a less comfortable reality: Canada is a major fossil fuel producer whose climate ambitions fall far short of Europe’s.

And under Carney, those ambitions are weakening.

Last year, Canada produced more crude oil than any other country outside the big three producers, Russia, Saudi Arabia and the United States. Oil and gas are Canada’s biggest exports by far, and the industry lobby is an influential force in Ottawa.

In his previous life as a central banker, Carney was considered a climate champion. POLITICO even dubbed him an “eco warrior” in 2018. But since taking over as prime minister last year, he has weakened Canada’s climate policies at a rate few predicted, scrapping a national carbon tax and electric vehicle mandate and opening new oil and gas projects.

The list of climate laws Carney has watered down, repealed and canceled makes the EU’s own recent backtracking on green laws look minor. Some environmentalists argue it is comparable to U.S. President Donald Trump’s wholesale dismantling of environmental protections.

“The track the Carney government has taken on climate and environmental regulation has been a decisive move in the direction of the U.S.,” said Tim Gray, executive director of environmental non-profit Environment Defence. Carney, he said, “seems to be all in on fossil fuels.”

Keean Nembhard, a spokesperson for Canada’s Environment Minister Julie Dabrusin, told POLITICO the Carney government is “committed to fighting climate change and reaching net-zero by 2050 by taking a pragmatic and durable approach.”

“This includes building major clean energy projects across the country, driving mass electrification, and making significant investment in the low-carbon economy,” he said.

But Gray argued that Carney’s support for fossil fuels and weakening of environmental standards may complicate Canada’s attempts to forge closer ties with Europe, which has some of the world’s most stringent green laws.

Still, in Europe, Carney’s green image persists.

Last week, Belgian member of the European Parliament Saskia Bricmont gave expression to this faith in Carney’s commitment to climate issues when she called on him to lead a global push to put climate back on the agenda ahead of next month’s U.N. climate summit.

“Mr Carney … relaunch the fight against climate deregulation and for the restoration of biodiversity, and re-mobilize the international community around concrete, coordinated measures,” she said.

Carney’s green aura

Carney’s reputation as a climate champion is well earned. As governor of the Bank of England, he led a push among central bankers to take the economic risks of climate change seriously — memorably captured in his 2015 ‘Tragedy of the Horizon’ speech, in which he warned: “The catastrophic impacts of climate change will be felt beyond the traditional horizons of most actors.”

In 2021, after he’d left the Bank of England, he became a United Nations special envoy on climate action and finance and launched a net-zero financial alliance with some of the world’s biggest banks.

But things changed dramatically when Donald Trump took back the White House, and Carney replaced fellow Liberal Justin Trudeau as Canada’s prime minister in 2025. At the time, Trudeau and his Liberals had been way behind in the polls, battered by Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre’s attacks on his climate policies — in particular an unpopular consumer carbon tax.

Carney’s first act as prime minister was to scrap that tax.

Following his surprise victory in the elections that April, Carney set about promoting Canada as an “energy superpower.” To the dismay of environmental groups, he supported the “Pacific Link,” an oil pipeline costing tens of billions of dollars, designed to carry Alberta crude to Canada’s Pacific coast for export to Asia.

He then pushed for thawing relations with Beijing in January, a not-so-subtle pitch to find a new crude oil client that isn’t the U.S. Germany, rushing to replace its dependence on Russian energy, signed a long-term agreement in July to buy Canadian liquefied natural gas from a proposed port in British Columbia, despite backlash from environmental and indigenous groups.

He also scrapped laws on electric vehicle adoption, dropped plans for an emissions cap on oil and gas companies, watered down an existing industrial carbon price and introduced legislation to weaken environmental permitting rules for big infrastructure projects, which critics dubbed the “bulldoze nature bill.”

A landmark moment, according to Gray, came in November 2025, when Carney signed a memorandum of understanding with the government of Alberta, Canada’s biggest oil-producing province. That document, which promised to turn Canada into a “global energy superpower,” contained a string of promises to promote oil and gas and water down federal climate laws.

So why the dramatic shift?

Carney, who has repeatedly positioned energy sovereignty as a bulwark against Trump’s economic aggression, offered his realpolitik response at an event in the heart of Alberta’s oil patch earlier this month.

“There’s a structural challenge of energy security and the existential challenge of climate change, and these challenges are forcing countries to think differently about where their energy comes from and on who they can rely on to supply it,” Carney said in Fort McMurray, Alberta on Oct. 1.

“Even under any plausible net zero scenario, the IEA [International Energy Agency] forecasts the world will still need tens of millions of barrels of crude a day. So the question is: who will emerge as the world’s trusted suppliers? It should be us. It must be Canada.”

Not black and white

Carney, to be sure, is no Trump. Unlike the U.S. president, he has retained his pro-climate rhetoric and promised to develop the country’s mining of critical minerals essential for the clean energy transition.

In May, he unveiled a national electricity strategy which aims to double Canada’s largely clean electricity grid by 2050 to meet soaring demand. “The path to net zero is electrification,” Carney said then.

In August, he announced C$10 billion in federal support for the Churchill Falls hydroelectric project in Newfoundland and Labrador, saying it will be the largest clean energy project in North America, capable of generating enough electricity to light up the equivalent of Canada’s three largest cities.

Nembhard, Environment Minster Dabrusin’s spokesperson, also pointed to new electricity transmission lines, electric vehicle subsidies and a C$2 billion plan to retrofit homes with heat pumps.

Canadian climate activist Alex Cool-Fergus said she does not think Carney “believes that oil and gas is the future,” but is simply being pragmatic about Canada’s economic reality.

“The electricity strategy that came out in May was incredibly important, and actually gives us a better idea of what his thinking is for the future,” she said.

Trudeau’s approach to climate change was “very much values-based, and it was about doing the right thing,” said Cool-Fergus. “I think that’s hit its limits. Carney’s approach makes more sense for the world of 2025-2026.”

The limits of the partnership

Hoekstra, the EU’s commissioner for climate, said he wants to deepen ties with Canada. “Given all the complications the world is facing, it is imperative to team up more closely with your closest partners,” he said. But he’s realistic about how far that relationship can go.

Hoekstra has ambitions of cementing the EU into a global network of economies with carbon pricing regimes. While he conceded nothing is “off the table,” he acknowledged linking the EU’s Emissions Trading System with Canada’s “quite different” version, which varies from province to province: “You’re talking about a completely different horizon, and that is not something we would attempt in the very short run.”

There are, however, other ways Hoekstra believes the EU and Canada can closely link on environmental issues.

“Doubling down, tripling down on electrification, on solar, on wind, on nuclear, on batteries,” he said, adding “that is one area that I think is potentially very fruitful for my portfolio.”

Another is critical raw materials, a key focus of this week’s summit.

Brussels is exploring ways for the European Investment Bank, the EU’s lending arm, to help finance the mining of Canadian mineral deposits that could supply the bloc with an alternative to Chinese-produced metals, with a framework agreement expected to be signed during the summit. Lithium, copper, nickel, and other key ingredients for electric vehicle batteries and clean energy technologies essential for decarbonizing Europe are abundant but often undeveloped all over Canada.

This week’s summit will also explore investing in infrastructure on Canada’s east coast to liquefy and ship Canadian gas to Europe, a move that could help the EU diversify its supply away from the U.S., which, along with Norway, has become Europe’s dominant supplier since it cut off Russian gas imports following the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Many EU member countries will welcome success on these goals. But Gray warns that closer ties with Canada could lead to deeper penetration by the country’s powerful fossil fuel lobby, which he described as a “major, major force.”

“They’ll be spending time trying to make sure the alignment with the EU is in a direction that favors them,” he said.

The EU’s lack of oil and gas resources — and, by extension, the absence of a powerful fossil fuel lobby — has kept climate policy relatively bipartisan in the EU. Could inviting a fossil fuel “superpower” into the fold as an “associate member” change that?

“That would depend very much on what is an ‘associate member,’” Dutch Climate Minister Stientje van Veldhoven-van der Meer said.