The intelligence-sharing relationship between the U.S. and Ukraine has bounced back to previous highs, according to long-time Ukraine watchers — a welcome boost during a critical window of opportunity for the Ukrainian war effort.

Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.), the intelligence committee’s ranking member and a longtime proponent of more U.S. assistance to Ukraine, told POLITICO he sees evidence of an improved intel-sharing agreement — and believes it’s helped Kyiv gain an advantage in Moscow’s four-year-long war.

“I don’t want to get into any specifics, but it has improved,” he said, adding that Ukraine’s use of long-range drones and missiles has allowed it to strike deep within Russian territory and strengthen its position.

In recent months, Kyiv has carried out more aggressive strikes across Russia, enabling it to take back territory and stabilize the front line. This has afforded the country more leverage as Ukraine looks to parlay battlefield wins to pressure Russia to the negotiating table.

Ukraine’s stronger footing also comes as U.S.-mediated talks to strike a peace deal with Moscow have stalled. Trump’s negotiating team, which includes Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has been preoccupied with the Iran war, bumping Ukraine down its priority list.

But in that time, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy appears to have risen in President Donald Trump’s estimation as Kyiv has made gains against Russia.

In early July, a barrage of Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy infrastructure forced Moscow — one of the world’s top fuel exporters — to halt its exports of diesel. The increased frequency of those kinds of targeted attacks has put the Kremlin in a tighter spot, creating what Kyiv has argued is a window of opportunity for Ukraine to leverage its current advantage to end the war.

Republican Sens. John Cornyn (R-Texas), another member of the intel committee, and Roger Wicker (R-Miss.), who chairs the Senate Armed Services Committee, agreed that intel-sharing between the U.S. and Ukraine has increased at a moment of strategic importance.

“It sure seems like that,” Cornyn said. “Everybody loves a winner and looks like Ukraine has turned the tide.”

Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.), a Democratic armed services committee member, told POLITICO he’s also seen signs of greater communication between Ukraine and the U.S.

“I was in Ukraine in April 2025 and I was there again in July 2026. 
And I detect more confidence in the communication,” Kaine said.

Cooperation from the U.S. has been key to Ukraine’s positive turn in fortune, said George Barros, the director of innovation and open source tradecraft at the hawkish Institute for the Study of War. Trump reportedly approved intelligence sharing for Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy infrastructure last year, which have been essential to creating a “proper incentive structure” to push Moscow to the negotiating table, Barros noted.

The strikes, he said, were “supercharged,” and became significantly more effective when imbued with intelligence from the Americans, part of a “larger, more coherent strategy for how to actually create real costs.”

And American early warning systems, Barros added, have been alerting Ukrainians to incoming Russian missile attacks since the early days of the war.

The White House did not provide details on whether its intelligence-sharing relationship with Ukraine has expanded, though it stressed that Trump is focused on facilitating an end to the war.

“The President wants this war settled so the senseless killing ends,” said the White House spokesperson in a statement. “The President and his team remain committed to continuing to play a constructive role in ending the war between Russia and Ukraine, and he remains optimistic that we’ll ultimately get a peace deal done.”

The CIA and ODNI did not respond to a request for comment.

Washington also stands to benefit from Kyiv’s intelligence, said John Herbst, who served as U.S. ambassador to Ukraine from 2003-2006 and still maintains contact with officials in the country.

“There’s no doubt of the following: Ukraine has outstanding intelligence on Russia,” he said.

Zelenskyy has sought to put that intelligence to use. With Washington locked in a five-month war against Iran, the Ukrainian president prefaced his July visit to the Oval Office by claiming Kyiv planned to provide Trump with evidence that Russia was aiding Tehran.

“When you talk to Ukrainian intelligence officials, you hear confident insights into what is going on in Moscow, and not just in the Kremlin,” said Stephen Sestanovich, a fellow for Russian and Eurasian Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. “Insights of a sort that justify a truly cooperative and reciprocal sharing arrangement.”

President Donald Trump is stuck.

Iran has made clear that its price for ending hostilities is control over the Strait of Hormuz, a politically unpalatable prospect for the White House. But the ongoing tit-for-tat strikes, threatening to become a wider regional war, is equally untenable.

That’s left a frustrated White House with few good options, five former Trump administration officials told POLITICO.

“Iran wants the political concession of the principle that they get money for passage through the strait,” said a former administration official, granted anonymity to speak candidly. “That will embed their control of the strait in diplomatic practice and customary law.”

Trump over the previous weeks has mixed threats of destruction with promises of resolution, a pattern that continued this weekend. On Saturday night, Trump posted on Truth Social that he had called off an attack on Iran, “subject to being able to rapidly make a DEAL” to open the strait.

“We have just been asked by Iran, and other Middle Eastern Countries, to hold off any attack in that the perimeters of a deal has been agreed to,” he wrote. “This would include the Immediate, Complete, and Total OPENING OF THE HORMUZ STRAIT, and an end to Iran’s nuclear threat.”

The announcement followed media reports suggesting Trump was preparing new, intense strikes on Iran, possibly on the country’s energy infrastructure, which could certainly escalate the conflict. But Iran has not yet responded to Trump’s announcement and has not confirmed that a deal with Washington has been reached.

Nor is there any indication that Iran is willing to relinquish control of the strait.

Inside the White House, top administration officials, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio, have warned against any resolution that allows Iran to control the strait.

Doing so, they believe, would imperil the United States’ future ability to sanction Iran because multiple countries would need waivers to pay the fees. It would further reduce the international community’s ability to pressure Iran into giving up its nuclear ambitions. And Rubio last week warned it would create a dangerous precedent sure to be duplicated.

U.S. President Donald Trump said late Saturday that he was canceling planned strikes on Iran pending a rapid agreement with Tehran to end the conflict in the Middle East.

“We have just been asked by Iran, and other Middle Eastern Countries, to hold off any attack in that the perimeters of a deal has been agreed to,” Trump announced in a post on Truth Social.

He said the agreement would include the “Immediate, Complete, and Total OPENING OF THE HORMUZ STRAIT” and “an end to Iran’s nuclear threat.” Trump added that Israel supported his commitment to pause strikes, contingent on “being able to rapidly make a DEAL.”

The announcement came after reports in U.S. media that Washington had been preparing new, intense strikes on Iran over the weekend, including on the country’s energy infrastructure. On Saturday the U.S. government urged Americans across the Middle East to remain alert and prepare for possible evacuations “should there be escalation” in the region.

Iran has not yet responded to Trump’s announcement and has not confirmed that a deal with Washington has been reached.

Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi held calls Saturday night with counterparts in Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Turkey, according to posts on his Telegram channel. The country’s acting defense minister, Majid Ibn al-Reza, said Sunday that Tehran would “neither be caught off guard nor remain passive,” according to state media.

Saudi Arabia, meanwhile, called for diplomacy to ease tensions. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman told Trump in a phone call that dialogue should be prioritized to “de-escalate tensions” in the Middle East, Saudi state media reported Sunday.