PARIS — Looting and rioting across France over the weekend are threatening to reshape the contours of the French presidential race.

Far-right front-runner Marine Le Pen is seizing on the crisis to cast herself as the candidate of law and order, but there are risks for her too. Many voters see her as a highly divisive leader whose 2027 victory would only deepen the societal fault lines exposed by the riots.

Far-left firebrand Jean-Luc Mélenchon, widely tipped to challenge Le Pen in the second round next year, is also treading carefully as rivals accuse him of encouraging the rage on the streets that has morphed into pillaging and arson.

For the flailing centrists, there is now an opportunity to finally make an impression in the contest — but only if they can distance themselves from President Emmanuel Macron, who is seen as fluffing his response to the nationwide wave of vandalism.

Overall, it’s pushing the election into uncharted waters.

“If there’s a real crisis, you don’t know where it could lead,” said one conservative who holds regular talks with officials from the far-right National Rally and was granted anonymity to discuss the subject.

Where does that leave the candidates? POLITICO takes a look at the strategic calculus for the leading runners across the political spectrum.

Marine Le Pen, on the up

Le Pen is receiving an immediate boost. Even her rivals admit it.

This Saturday’s unrest “benefits the far right,” said center-right European Member of Parliament Nathalie Loiseau. “They are circling around the violence like vultures,” she said in an interview.

Le Pen has already cast herself as the alternative president, delivering a sober address to the nation Sunday and pitching herself as the candidate of a “pacified France.”

Jordan Bardella, president of her National Rally party, upped the ante on the protests and pitched his party as the only one able to restore order, dialing up fears about the pillaging. The rioters “will soon be breaking into people’s homes,” he said at a press conference in Paris. “The authorities are collapsing.”

But excessive, prolonged chaos could backfire on a party long seen as instigating civil unrest. And the topic is already becoming a talking point inside the National Rally.

“Some say that this shows that there will be riots if the National Rally comes to power,” said Charles-Henri Gallois, one of Bardella’s advisers. “But I don’t believe it.”

According to the conservative quoted above, periods of instability can lead the French to turn their backs on anti-establishment figures and prefer traditional veterans.

“You could end up with [Charles] De Gaulle on the Champs-Elysées,” the official said, referring to how the first president of the Fifth Republic emerged with extra powers after the 1958 crisis that roiled the nation.

Jean-Luc Mélenchon, on the defensive

Far-left leader Mélenchon is in a bind as he walks a tightrope between supporting protesters and distancing himself from violence.

The France Unbowed party supported the school protests in the run-up to last weekend’s riots, and far-left elected officials have played a prominent role in the blockades, either in decrying alleged police violence or in support of the protesters.

In the battle for leadership between Mélenchon and center-left MEP Raphaël Glucksmann, the former grabbed the limelight.

But the violence this weekend could end up marginalizing the far left, especially with the government and political rivals accusing them of fueling the unrest. “They tried to aggravate the situation,” Loiseau said.

According to a poll from Cluster 17 for POLITICO, the 75-year-old far-left firebrand is already one of the most commonly “rejected” politicians in France.

On Monday, Mélenchon tried to turn the tables, firing back at the government, saying the prime minister was fomenting “disorder” with his accusations that ultra-left groups were trying to disrupt the election.

Edouard Philippe, looking for a reset

For the center-right presidential hopeful Philippe, the riots aren’t good news either. He has to work hard to distance himself from his old boss, President Emmanuel Macron, who is seen as failing to respond sufficiently to the crisis. (Philippe was Macron’s first prime minister.)

But the protests could also be his opportunity to show some character, and rebut critics who think his campaign lacks energy and panache. Philippe, the best-placed centrist candidate to beat the far-right, has seen his poll ratings stall in recent months and has struggled to cut through the campaign noise.

A break with Macron might just be what he needs.

Philippe came out hard against the president after he failed to announce any measures during his primetime television address Sunday. “I would have preferred… decisions and initiatives to restore order,” he wrote online. “This country needs someone in command.”

But the former PM will need to stick his neck out more if he’s going to make an impact.

“He’s very presidential, and it’s a posture that suits him,” said one of Macron’s ministers, who, like others cited here, was granted anonymity to speak candidly.

“But he’s not saying anything. What’s his measure? Why doesn’t he say we need to call a state of emergency? “

Raphaël Glucksmann, on the offensive

For the MEP Raphaël Glucksmann, the protests are a trial by fire after he won the Socialist Party primary contest earlier this month and became the center-left’s presidential candidate.

On Monday, Glucksmann tried to strike a very different note from Mélenchon, telling reporters that “it’s unbearable … that hordes of looters should attack symbols of the state.”

Sensing a chink in the far-left leader’s armor, he accused the leader of France Unbowed of being “a springboard” for Le Pen, who would be “the beneficiary of the chaos.”

Glucksmann has seen his poll ratings go up since he won the Socialist Party primary outright, reaching 15% to 16.5% according to a recent Elabe poll — in a similar territory to Mélenchon and Philippe.

But the minister quoted above expected Glucksmann to peak soon.

“He can only take voters away from Mélenchon,” the minister said. “A left-wing voter may vote for the right, but a right-wing voter won’t vote for the left anytime soon,” the person said.

Emmanuel Macron, on the skids

Macron is being roasted for going on television to address the nation and announce … absolutely nothing.

On Sunday, Macron promised that rioters who “destroyed” things would have to pay the price and called for “clear answers” on why the protests turned violent.

“Fucking hell, it’s rubbish,” said one former senior government official.

Macron has cultivated an image of being above the fray and went on a trip to the Middle East on Monday. But his failure to respond to the violence risks damaging his final months in power. “It’s out of touch,” a regional official said.

According to the minister quoted above, Macron should have let his prime minister do the talking but instead was encouraged to make “a speech to calm” the situation.

On Monday, Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu tried to get a grip on the situation, announcing localized curfews, movement restrictions, and bans on public demonstrations.

But another day of demonstrations has already been announced for next Saturday, sparking fears the protests will snowball into sustained protests similar to the Yellow Vests movement in 2018 and 2019.

If so, this chaos will be a defining element of the 2027 campaign.

MADRID — Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s chances of staging a poll-defying election comeback have suffered a serious dent.

Spain’s notoriously fragmented far left has failed to unite on a single ticket ahead of November’s election, which many Sánchez supporters had hoped would mobilize voters, capitalize on the country’s electoral system and increase the prime minister’s hopes of forming a new government.

The left-wing disarray leaves Spain’s conservative People’s Party, led by Alberto Núñez Feijóo, on track to claim power after eight years of socialist rule in Madrid, as a broader tilt to the right reshapes European politics.

With negotiations stuttering, an exasperated Mónica García, health minister and candidate for the left-wing Broad Front, warned on social media that the left risked getting “trapped in egos, worries, internal disputes and electoral and/or personal calculations that are good for nobody except the right.” 

The Broad Front took shape shortly after the election was called in order to bring together several parties to the left of Sánchez. But after several days of frantic discussions, prominent left-wing party Podemos did not join the united ticket — except in the Canary Islands and the Valencia region — hampering the far left’s overall electoral prospects.

“The only way for [Sánchez] to be able to govern again is for there to be a strong presence to the left of the Socialists,” said Kiko Llaneras, polling analyst for media outlet El País, who pointed out that “the Broad Front isn’t actually that broad.”

He added, “The big question is whether this new movement will be strong enough to allow the left to form a majority — and that’s going to be very difficult.”

Defying the odds

The Broad Front is made up of Sumar, the junior partner in the current Socialist-led government; the Catalan Comuns; the communist-led United Left (IU); Más Madrid; and an array of regional left-wing parties. The lead candidate of the ticket will be Ada Colau, the former mayor of Barcelona.

Spain’s electoral system rewards united platforms, and the Broad Front is not as inclusive as a similar alliance — created in 2023 and including Podemos — which helped Sánchez defy the odds and form a new administration after the last election.

Sumar, the dominant force in the 2026 alliance, has seen its vote share more than halved since 2023 to 5%, according to POLITICO’s Poll of Polls.

“Junior partners in any coalition tend to suffer because it’s difficult for them to implement their agenda and they tend to be less visible,” said Pablo Simón, a political scientist at Madrid’s Carlos III University.

Sumar has been lacking a high-profile figurehead. Yolanda Díaz, the labor minister and deputy prime minister who was once touted as a potential prime minister-in-waiting, is not running in the election.

The Broad Front ticket, Simón said, “is better than if there had been no agreement at all, but it’s still looking tough for them.”

Amid a last-minute scramble leading up to Friday’s midnight deadline for the registration of electoral alliances, hopes that Podemos, polling at around 3%, might join the ticket were dashed as talks ran aground over candidacies and the left-wing party’s concerns about being subsumed by the alliance. 

Speaking the next day, Colau apologized to voters on the left for the lack of a deal with Podemos and, referring to the fraught negotiations, said that “if someone doesn’t want to sit down at a table, you can’t force them.”

‘We have failed’

Sánchez is banking on a solid performance by his socialists and a resurgence by Sumar and its fellow parties to prevent what most polls suggest is a virtual inevitability: The People’s Party forming a coalition government with the far-right Vox, which has enjoyed a surge thanks to its aggressive stance on immigration.

But there was further disappointment on the left last week — beyond Podemos not appearing in the Broad Front — when hopes of an even wider ticket were dashed.

Gabriel Rufián, the charismatic parliamentary spokesperson for the Catalan Republican Left (ERC), had led a debate in recent months on the need for unprecedented unity on the left going into the next election in order to prevent the far right from entering government. The prospect of Rufián, who has a strong appeal outside Catalonia, leading a joint ticket had stirred excitement among voters.

However, restricted by his own pro-independence ERC, Rufián said he would be running only for that party, ruling him out of involvement in the kind of ambitious, nationwide ticket he had raised hopes of leading. 

“We have failed and, specifically, I have failed,” he said.

Juan Carlos Monedero, a co-founder of Podemos and former senior figure in the party, told POLITICO that “there is no one who has the authority to make a success of [a united left]. Rufián flirted with it, but in the end his loyalty to ERC was more important.”

Polling analyst Llaneras said that, as well as potentially mobilizing voters, greater unity would have provided a boost to the parties to the left of the socialists because of the country’s electoral framework.

“When it comes to converting votes into seats in Spain it’s very hard to do that with less than 10% of the vote,” he said. “Because the electoral districts in Spain are small, dividing the vote means losing a lot of representation. In districts where there are six or seven seats, you can miss out on all of them.”

Aitor Hernández-Morales contributed to this article.

MADRID — Parties on Spain’s far left have failed to reach an agreement to run on a joint ticket in the November 29 election, in a setback to Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, who would need their support to form a new governing majority.

The Frente Amplio (or Broad Front), an alliance of several parties to the left of Sánchez’s Socialist Party, had hoped to recruit Podemos, which was a junior partner in government from 2020 to 2023. But with the deadline for electoral coalitions falling at midnight on Friday, the parties were unable to reach a nationwide accord.

Instead, the Broad Front and Podemos will run together only in the Canary Islands and the Valencia region.

The Broad Front is made up of Sumar, the current junior partner in the Socialist-led government, the Catalan Comuns, the Communist-led United Left and Más Madrid. Some smaller local parties have also joined the ticket. The lead candidate for prime minister will be Ada Colau, the former mayor of Barcelona.

Sumar, the dominant force in the alliance, has seen its vote share more than halve since 2023, to 5%, according to POLITICO’s Poll of Polls.

Although Podemos has only been polling at 3%, its full involvement in the Broad Front would have meant a greater overall share of seats for the far left, according to analysts. 

The PSOE has been trailing the conservative People’s Party and would need a strong performance by parties to its left in order to keep Sánchez in office. The more likely scenario, polls show, is that the PP will be able to form a majority with the far-right Vox, whose support has been rising.

“The Spanish left is caught up in a game of thrones that demobilizes [voters],” said Irene de Miguel, coordinator of Podemos in the western region of Extremadura, as the deadline loomed.

Der überraschende Rücktritt erschüttert die Koalition: SPD-Arbeitsministerin Bärbel Bas gibt ihren Rückzug von allen Ämtern bekannt. Ausgerechnet kurz vor dem wichtigen Arbeitgebertag heute. POLITICO-Chefkorrespondent Rasmus Buchsteiner ordnet zusammen mit Maximilian Stascheit ein, wie diese Personalie das zerrüttete Regierungsbündnis belastet und warum mit der eiligen Ernennung von Alexander Schweitzer die Proporzregeln der SPD über Bord geworfen werden.

Währenddessen läuft in der Berliner Landespolitik weiter der Richtungsstreit. Die Linksfraktion im Abgeordnetenhaus streitet nach wie vor über den Umgang mit Antisemitismus und israelfeindlichen Protesten. Im 200-Sekunden-Interview stellt sich der Co-Vorsitzende im Bund, Luigi Pantisano, den Fragen zu offenen Briefen, fragwürdigen Demo-Aufrufen von Mitgliedern und erklärt, wieso er keine drohende Spaltung der Partei sieht.

Nach eigentlich viel zu langer Vakanz besetzt die Bundesregierung den Posten der Antisemitismusbeauftragten neu. Rixa Fürsen beleuchtet die Hintergründe der Personalie Katharina von Schnurbein und erklärt die Erleichterung bei vielen Beteiligten, weil die erfahrene Expertin aus Brüssel nach gescheiterten Anläufen mit anderen Kandidaten nun diese drängende Aufgabe übernimmt.

Das Berlin Playbook als Podcast gibt es jeden Morgen ab 5 Uhr. Rixa Fürsen, Maximilian Stascheit und das POLITICO-Team liefern Politik zum Hören – kompakt, international, hintergründig.

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PARIS — Edouard Philippe was once seen as the only man capable of defeating Marine Le Pen in next year’s French presidential election. But his lackluster campaign as the country’s voice of reason is putting his allies on edge — and some of them are starting to wonder if he has what it takes.

The former center-right prime minister promised a “massive” campaign platform that would fix France, put its finances back on track and restore the country’s standing in the world. And while Philippe has upped his campaign tempo in recent weeks, his proposals tend to fall flat.

POLITICO spoke to six members of Philippe’s political family, some of them campaign team members, who shared doubts about his strategy and chances of success. Some were granted anonymity to speak candidly about internal matters.

“It’s unbelievable how nothing is making an impact,” a campaign official told POLITICO ahead of Philippe’s decision to announce his plans for a flagship pensions reform. “I can’t stop thinking about it.”

Philippe is still the best-placed mainstream candidate to challenge far-right Le Pen, who commands a substantial lead in the polls. But his poll ratings have stalled over the past year, and he is now locked in a tight race with far-left candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon to clinch a second place which would qualify him for the runoff. MEP Raphaël Glucksmann, who trails the duo in most surveys, could see a boost for his campaign after scoring a decisive victory in the recent center-left primary.

Philippe is facing a pileup of problems: He has yet to unite the center behind him, remains burdened by a decade of centrist rule and is struggling to gain traction among voters with his pitch as the plain-speaking pragmatist fighting populism.

“Philippe is the most honest guy I know,” said an ally, “but he needs to unite and find a project that rallies people around him.”

Meanwhile, Le Pen and Mélenchon are dominating headlines with political one-upmanship and at times inflammatory proposals. The two populists locked horns last week over school protests, with Le Pen accusing Mélenchon of fueling the violence, and the far left positioning themselves as the protectors of France’s youth against police violence.

“The risk is great” that Le Pen and Mélenchon will squeeze him out of the race, Philippe’s ally added.

Stale marriage

Philippe, who left his position as prime minister under President Emmanuel Macron in 2020, has been planning his bid to succeed him for years. But things haven’t quite gone to plan on the campaign trail, where he has faced upsets and distractions.

When Philippe recently announced his unpopular proposal to push back the retirement age to 65, it was supposed to be a make-or-break moment in his campaign. Instead, it went almost unnoticed.

First, he was forced to delay his flagship announcement because Macron decided to address the nation about Russian threats and spiraling fuel costs. When he finally got round to it, it was overshadowed by antisemitism allegations against National Rally leader Jordan Bardella.

Ultimately, his 20-minute speech detailing his pensions plans on YouTube garnered only 70,000 views.

A day later, Mélenchon livestreamed a two-hour Q&A session with students from HEC, one of France’s top business schools. It got 550,000 views.

But according to Philippe’s campaign spokesperson Arnaud Péricard, the battle will be won in the long run.

“We’re not firing an arrow and then running away … Voters shouldn’t be underestimated; they can understand why our pensions system needs fixing,” he said. “But we aren’t mere accountants … We want a return of a powerful France that can lead on energy, industry; that’s why we need to balance our books.”

But a mix of economic realism and European ambition sounds all too familiar after a decade of Macron’s presidency — and even insiders know there’s little appetite for it. “There’s no desire for the centrist bloc. It’s a bit like marriage after 10 years,” said the same ally quoted above.

But for Philippe, a pro-European who was one of Macron’s coalition partners, there’s not much else he can offer.

“It’s difficult for the moderates: They know what state the country is in. They understand interest rates, debt and deficits,” said OpinionWay pollster Bruno Jeanbart. “They have to campaign as if things will get better, but it’s going to be difficult. We’ll have to work longer, accept more social spending, less benefits. There is no good news.”

Cornered

The silver lining for Philippe is that while he’s not doing too well, his immediate rivals aren’t doing any better. Conservative leader Bruno Retailleau is stuck on single-digit polling figures, while centrist Gabriel Attal, leader of Macron’s Renaissance party, has relentlessly campaigned throughout the summer but is still lagging behind and looks increasingly isolated.

Party insiders are confident Philippe will prevail, but admit the drawn-out centrist battle is dragging their champion down.

“We are at a bit of a standstill, and letting ourselves get boxed into a duel with Attal,” complained a senior official from Philippe’s Horizons party.

When Philippe and Attal announced their education proposals simultaneously last month, “people didn’t notice our proposals, they just saw the squabbling with Gabriel Attal,” the official added.

A member of Philippe’s campaign team said there was “little bandwidth” to make an impact because there were “too many” centrist candidates. “Maybe we’ll have to wait before addressing some campaign topics,” the official said.

In the coming weeks, Philippe’s team hopes to drain Attal’s support among lawmakers and local representatives, according to two allies, and force him to throw in the towel.

But that’s unlikely to provide Philippe with a much-needed boost, said a centrist senator, as enthusiasm is flatlining at the local level too. “There’s no real movement anywhere,” the senator said. “And the French aren’t really listening.”

Pauline de Saint Remy and Elisa Bertholomey contributed reporting.

PARIS — Raphaël Glucksmann won France’s center-left primary on Sunday, securing the backing of the Socialist Party and its allies for next year’s presidential election, organizers said.

Glucksmann, a member of the European Parliament, won the contest outright with over 66% of votes, beating Socialist Party leader Olivier Faure and three other candidates in the first round. More than 120,000 people voted Friday, Saturday and Sunday.

The leader of the small center-left Place Publique party entered the contest as one of the favorites. He now emerges strengthened from the primary, with access to Socialist Party funds and having built a broader base for his candidacy.

“This result expresses something strong: that a left that is faithful to its values can unite, govern and win,” the MEP wrote online.

“We are here to win the presidential election: Turn the page on Macronism, stop the far right and change our lives,” he added.

But Glucksmann, a staunch supporter of Ukraine and a critic of China, now faces a much greater challenge: how to beat the far-left leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon. The head of the France Unbowed party is surging in the polls, with the latest Ifop survey giving him 14% to 17% support, compared to 11% for Glucksmann.

In recent weeks, Glucksmann campaigned against forming an alliance with the far-left leader.

Three other candidates ran in the primary, including former minister Ségolène Royal and lawmakers Jérôme Guedj and Emmanuel Maurel.

Some 140,000 people were registered to vote in the primary — including, 80,000 who paid €15 to take part but weren’t members of any of the parties whose candidates were running — raising uncertainty over the outcome.

The online voting platform was also targeted by a cyberattack shortly after opening, organizers said in a statement on Friday, but “was never disrupted” and “the integrity of the recorded votes has not been compromised.”

Ein drohender Linksruck in der Hauptstadt sorgt für handfesten Ärger auf Bundesebene. Während SPD und Grüne in Berlin ernsthaft mit der Linkspartei sondieren, blickt Friedrich Merz mit Sorge auf eine mögliche Regierende Bürgermeisterin Elif Eralp. Welche radikalen Forderungen im Raum stehen und warum der Antisemitismus-Streit in der Linken die Regierungsbildung zur Zerreißprobe macht, analysiert Maximilian Heimerzheim.

Beim Dauerbrenner Rentenreform verhärten sich die Fronten zwischen Union und SPD zusehends. Ein neues Sherpa-Treffen soll nun klären, ob das Rentenpaket aufgespalten wird oder langfristig gar ein Renteneintrittsalter von 70 Jahren droht. Rasmus Buchsteiner ordnet ein, welche Kompromisse der Kanzler bis Weihnachten erwartet und wer in den Verhandlungen auf der Bremse steht.

Im 200-Sekunden-Interview spricht CSU-Forschungsministerin Dorothee Bär über das europäische Kräftemessen im All. Parallel zum Staatsbesuch von Bundespräsident Frank-Walter Steinmeier und Emmanuel Macron in Bordeaux erklärt sie, wie sich Deutschland in der Raumfahrt behaupten will und warum Europa beim Flug zum Mond mehr Selbstbewusstsein gegenüber der NASA braucht.

Das Berlin Playbook als Podcast gibt es jeden Morgen ab 5 Uhr. Rixa Fürsen, Maximilian Stascheit und das POLITICO-Team liefern Politik zum Hören – kompakt, international, hintergründig.

Für alle Hauptstadt-Profis: Der Berlin Playbook-Newsletter bietet jeden Morgen die wichtigsten Themen und Einordnungen. Jetzt kostenlos abonnieren.

POLITICO Deutschland – ein Angebot der Axel Springer Deutschland GmbH
Axel-Springer-Straße 65, 10888 Berlin
Tel: +49 (30) 2591 0
information@axelspringer.de
Sitz: Amtsgericht Berlin-Charlottenburg, HRB 196159 B
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Geschäftsführer: Christoph Eck-Schmidt, Carolin Hulshoff Pol, Mathias Sanchez Luna