Nach etlichen Stunden Verhandlungsmarathon im Haushaltsausschuss bleiben zentrale Konflikte um Stromsteuer und kalte Progression ungelöst. Während die SPD entspannt zuschaut, wächst der Frust über leere Versprechen zur Schuldenbremse und einen teils scheinbar abwesenden Kanzler. Gordon Repinski und Rasmus Buchsteiner analysieren, warum die Koalition im Klein-Klein feststeckt und Friedrich Merz unter Druck gerät.

Außerdem geht es um die Unions-Kandidatin für das Bundespräsidentenamt, Ilse Aigner. Die pragmatische Politikerin genießt auch bei politischen Gegnern hohes Ansehen und positioniert sich als verbindendes Element in Zeiten der Spaltung.
Repinski und Buchsteiner besprechen, wie Aigner einen strategischen Sieg errang und was ihr Aufstieg für die Machtbalance bedeutet. Die Parodie von Angela Ascher „Ihr habt die Ilse vergessen“ gibt es hier zu sehen.

Zudem geht es um eine mögliche politische Erschütterung: Ein vom BSW angestrengtes, anstehendes Urteil aus Karlsruhe zu einer Neuauszählung der Bundestagswahl könnte Mehrheitsverhältnisse im Bundestag beeinflussen. Ein Ausblick auf entscheidende Tage.

Das Berlin Playbook als Podcast gibt es jeden Morgen ab 5 Uhr. Rixa Fürsen, Maximilian Stascheit und das POLITICO-Team liefern Politik zum Hören – kompakt, international, hintergründig.

Für alle Hauptstadt-Profis: Der Berlin Playbook-Newsletter bietet jeden Morgen die wichtigsten Themen und Einordnungen. Jetzt kostenlos abonnieren.

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**(Anzeige) Eine Nachricht von YouTube: Verlässliche Finanzierung für Qualitätsjournalismus: Damit unabhängige Berichterstattung im Netz wirtschaftlich tragen kann, braucht es faire Erlösmodelle. Laut einer Studie von Oxford Economics geben 76 % der Medienunternehmen mit YouTube-Kanal an, dass die Plattform eine wichtige Einnahmequelle für ihr Geschäft darstellt. Hier klicken für mehr Informationen zum wirtschaftlichen Beitrag von YouTube.**

PARIS — Far-right leader Marine Le Pen said she would be prepared to hold talks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Brussels, in the wake of her promises to stop French financial aid to Ukraine.

Speaking on the sidelines of a trade fair in Paris, Le Pen said a meeting in Brussels would be “justified” because “the topic of Ukraine financing is rattling Europe.”

“The German chancellor is starting to threaten people, it’s starting to be an issue in Europe and it would be interesting to discuss this,” she said in a reference to Friedrich Merz’s threats to cut EU funds for countries who refuse to support Ukraine financially.

Le Pen said she would offer to hold talks with Zelenskyy when she meets the Ukrainian ambassador in France on Monday.

The far-right leader is the front-runner ahead of next year’s presidential election and has repeatedly said France can no longer afford to keep financing Ukraine’s war effort. She has estimated that French aid amounts to €6 billion per year, a figure Zelenskyy has challenged. He said the military partnership with Paris is “a win-win” relationship.

Zelenskyy also invited Le Pen to Kyiv, telling French weekly l’Express that Le Pen would “change her mind” if she met Ukrainians.

Financial aid to Ukraine has become an issue in next year’s presidential election amid difficult budget negotiations. This month far-left leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon also courted controversy when he said that a post-war referendum on the future of the Donbas should be held in the area, which is mostly under Russian occupation.

LONDON — A former Labour MP who was suspended from the party following allegations of sexual harassment has joined Plaid Cymru, the ruling party in Wales. 

Geraint Davies made the announcement on the news website Nation Cymru, where he claimed that he was forced out as an MP because of “local rivalries and disobeying Keir Starmer’s orders to speaking [sic] out against killings in Gaza.”

He described allegations of sexual misconduct against him as “untrue anonymous hearsay in the media.”

In 2023, five women alleged that Davies, a former Commons select committee chair, subjected them to unwanted sexual attention, both physical and verbal, after coming into contact with them through his work as an MP. Davies had the whip suspended as a Labour MP immediately after the allegations were made public but remained a member of the party until 2025.

When the claims against Davies were first reported by POLITICO, he said he did not “recognize” them, adding: “If I have inadvertently caused offence to anyone, then I am naturally sorry.”

In these instances, the women had raised concerns about his behavior informally but had not complained in writing.

At least two women later filed official complaints with the Labour Party, resulting in an investigation lasting more than a year.

Davies was not eligible to stand as a candidate in the 2024 election because he was suspended, and quit the party ahead of a planned hearing on his conduct in 2025. As a result, the hearing never went ahead.

The former MP for Swansea West argued in the article published Thursday that the party engineered his removal as a candidate for factional reasons. “I was made to wait 23 weeks without any complaints. When complaints were made, they were ‘to support other women’ who had not made any complaints. None were reported to Parliament,” he said.

Two women who previously made allegations against Davies, and were granted anonymity to protect their privacy, contacted POLITICO on Friday to object to his statement to Nation Cymru. One, a sitting Labour MP first elected in 2015, said she had entered a formal complaint with the party to raise an allegation of unwanted touching.

“Having been touched by Geraint against my wishes, I can say the allegations of sexual harassment are more than hearsay. Whilst I can’t speak for other women’s experiences, I know the way he touched me left me deeply upset and unsettled and I spent most of the years we were both MPs trying to put as much physical distance between us as was possible,” she said.

A second woman said: “As someone who experienced this behaviour firsthand, I know that these claims are not hearsay. Women don’t come forward because of exactly this kind of platform and response.” 

A Labour Party spokesperson said: “All complaints are assessed thoroughly in line with our rules and procedures. To protect the confidentiality of the complainants, we do not provide information about specific allegations made.”

They added: “It is categorically untrue to suggest that the fact Mr Davies was not re-selected as a Labour candidate was unconnected to the serious allegations made about his conduct.”  

A spokesperson for Plaid Cymru, the Welsh nationalist party, said: “Plaid Cymru treats all complaints of sexual harassment and abuse with the utmost seriousness. Every concern raised is taken seriously, and allegations are considered fairly and thoroughly, taking into account all available evidence. We encourage anyone who has experienced or witnessed inappropriate behaviour to come forward, so that concerns can be properly investigated and appropriate action taken.”

Davies did not respond to a request for comment.  

MADRID — Spain’s Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez sees little room for optimism regarding today’s world. “At the end of this path lies another world war,” the Socialist wrote in today’s edition of the U.S. publication Foreign Affairs.

In an op-ed that encapsulates his government’s foreign policy views, Sánchez said the erosion of multilateralism is “multiplying the chances that any crisis will quickly spiral into planetary annihilation.”

According to most polls, Sánchez is set to lose power after the Nov. 29 snap election in his country, with right-wing and far-right parties expected to win a majority in parliament. In the op-ed he defended his government’s recent actions, such as Madrid’s decision earlier this year to deny Washington the use of Spanish bases in its war against Iran.

It “was not an act of hostility toward an ally. Nor was it an expression of neutrality or sympathy for the Iranian regime,” Sánchez wrote. Instead, the decision was “a judgement that getting involved would enable escalation.”

Sánchez added that “to keep its commitment to peace, Spain had to be willing to say no, even when doing so carried a political cost.”

“Had more countries done the same, the wars in Gaza and Iran would have been far harder and costlier to wage,” the prime minister speculated, holding up the Spanish government he has led since 2018 as an example to be followed.

The Socialist also criticized the war-readiness strategy the European Union has recently endorsed, noting that “even centrist leaders are embracing the language of war preparedness.”

“Although they do not intend to start a war, their words feed a dangerous militaristic mindset,” the prime minister added.

Sánchez grounded his opposition to war in decades of Spanish civil society activism against armed conflict, flagging the ¡No a la guerra! (“No to war!”) protests in Spain from when the conservative government of José María Aznar backed the 2003 invasion of Iraq.

“The world cannot afford to ignore them again,” wrote Sánchez, who claims to have taken part in the demonstrations.

In the article Sánchez was skeptical of ad hoc solutions such as the Coalition of the Willing, a group of 34 countries that have promised enhanced aid to Ukraine, ascribing such initiatives to the ineffectiveness of multilateralism.

Instead, pitching himself as a champion of peace and small and mid-sized powers, he called for reform of the United Nations, including the Security Council, which “does not reflect today’s world.”

He urged that the veto powers of the Council’s permanent members be strictly limited, especially in cases involving “mass atrocities, genocide, crimes against humanity and war crimes,” and advocated the eventual elimination of the veto.

He also proposed that the terms of the Council’s non-permanent members be extended and that seats be awarded primarily to countries from Africa and Latin America.

Finally, Sánchez supported the election of a woman as U.N. secretary-general.

SEVILLE, Spain — Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez officially launched his long-shot reelection bid in Seville on Thursday, appealing to Socialist loyalists in Andalusia, the southern region that for decades served as his party’s political heartland.

But even here, the center-left is now is on the ropes — in a stark sign of how improbable a Sánchez win now looks on Nov. 29.

Surrounded by Socialist supporters waving red party banners and Andalusian flags and shouting “¡Guapo!” — “Handsome!” — the undaunted prime minister took the stage in Seville, dancing to the upbeat strains of a romantic pop song, chosen to underscore his progressive message of love in the face of the politics of hate.

“We’re here to vote, we’re here to win, we’re here to govern,” Sánchez told the adoring crowd, which had been shown videos of the prime minister reciting poems by Federico García Lorca, the celebrated Andalusian poet and playwright murdered by Francoist forces in 1936.

Sánchez’s decision to launch his campaign in Seville is laden with historic symbolism. For 36 years, the Socialists dominated Andalusian politics, controlling the regional government and many of the region’s biggest cities. 

That hold on power ended in 2018, after years of declining support and a string of corruption scandals paved the way for the center-right People’s Party to take control.

Since becoming regional president in 2019, Juanma Moreno has established himself as a steady, pragmatic leader, winning a landslide victory in 2022 and securing the most votes in snap elections earlier this year. His success in Andalusia has also elevated his profile nationally, making him one of the leading figures of the PP’s moderate wing.

Despite the PP’s consolidation of power in Andalusia, the Socialists are not ready to relinquish their claim on the region. Francisco Toscano, a Socialist candidate for congress in Seville, told POLITICO the party still considered Andalusia to be its bastion.

“This is an eminently progressive region, and one whose voters believe in progressive government,” he said.

Electorally, he added, Andalusia is crucial to the Socialists’ grander ambitions. “This is the most populous autonomous community in Spain, so its weight at the national level is very important,” he continued, noting that the region elects the largest number of lawmakers to the parliament in Madrid, making up 60 of the 350 seats.

But while Sánchez’s campaign launch struck an optimistic note about the prospect of an Andalusian comeback, the latest polling suggests the Socialists could suffer disastrous results across the region.

According to the latest GAD3 poll, the center-right People’s Party is ahead of the Socialists in most Andalusian provinces — including Seville, where Sánchez’s party has never previously lost in a general election.

A rout in Andalusia would be more than a regional setback for Sánchez. It would further narrow his slim path to reelection, making a fresh national mandate look all the more out of reach.

Reversal of fortune

The Socialists’ decline in Andalusia is, in many ways, a consequence of their own success.

When the party first came to power in the region in 1982, Andalusia was one of Spain’s poorest areas. But under leaders such as Manuel Chaves — who ruled the region for 19 years — it underwent a profound transformation.

Throughout the 1980s and 1990s, Socialist regional governments used EU structural funds to spur economic development, funding infrastructure projects such as the Madrid-Seville high-speed railway.

Between 1982 and 1996, Socialist Prime Minister Felipe González — a proud native son on Seville — championed the region from Madrid, helping secure major investments and backing landmark events such as the Expo ’92 World’s Fair, which brought a fresh wave of investment to Andalusia.

But as regional living standards improved, voters’ expectations rose too — and the party increasingly struggled to meet them.

“There was a paradox of satisfaction,” said Ángel Cazorla, a political scientist at the University of Granada. “Although Andalusians felt the Socialists had overseen decades of progress, and personally felt their lives had improved, the great recession exposed how much remained unfinished or unresolved.” 

By 2018, frustration over persistent problems such as unemployment and strained public services, and corruption cases involving high-ranking regional grandees, ultimately led to the Socialists’ ouster.

Cazorla said the two deadly train accidents that rocked Spain this year, both of which occurred on the iconic Madrid-Seville rail line, were emblematic of the party’s decline. 

“In addition to the human toll, we can list Curro as a victim of these tragedies,” he said, referring to the colorful cartoon bird that served as the mascot of the 1992 Seville World’s Fair and which many Andalusians associate with the prosperity of the Socialist era.

“The deadly accidents are in a lot of ways representative of a social-democratic project that gradually ran out of steam, and that successive governments have failed to look after what had been achieved not only with infrastructure, but public goods and overall quality of life,” he added.

The generational gap

Socialist candidate Toscano is not blind to the reasons the Socialists have lost ground. 

After decades in power, he acknowledged, the party had faced growing pressure from the right, corruption scandals and a failure to adapt its message to changing living standards. “We had shortcomings in our management in recent years,” he said, while arguing the Socialists had nonetheless remained electorally competitive in parts of the region.

Cazorla argued the party’s difficulties go beyond its record in government: It also faces a generational problem. Younger electors who grew up in an already-transformed Andalusia feel little identification with the Socialists or with a regional leadership associated with the discredited administrations of the past. 

“A young left-wing voter is paying attention to a different message — one the old guard is incapable of projecting,” he said, adding Adelante Andalucía, a regionalist party that advocates in favor of greater self-government and left-wing policies, is more likely to seduce local electors.

Toscano, however, remained hopeful that Andalusian voters would turn out for the Socialists in an election he frames as a choice between Sánchez’s progressive agenda and the global conservative wave. 

“We’ve seen public services deteriorate under Giorgia Meloni in Italy, and Javier Milei wielding his ‘chainsaw’ to dismantle Argentina’s welfare state,” he said. “In this election, Spaniards must choose whether to remain a country that continues to make social progress or follow the path of regression we are seeing elsewhere.”

MADRID — Trust us. We are sober, sensible — even slightly dull — managers.

It’s not the world’s catchiest election slogan, but it’s the core message that Spain’s center-right People’s Party is banking on to propel it into government on Nov. 29. Reinforcing the idea that the PP wants to run the EU’s fourth-biggest economy like a competent, unflashy corporation, one senior party official, granted anonymity to speak freely, said the PP was “offering a CEO to lead the country.”

Amid profound frustration with corruption scandals under the Socialist government of Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, it’s a message with traction, and polls suggest the PP will form the next government.

But it also presents the party with an identity crisis if — as expected — it needs to team up with far-right populists from Vox to build a majority. If the next government is a business, Vox will be a maverick on the board.

Business leader

The devastating Toledo rail crash that killed 69 people on Oct. 28 offered the PP an opportunity to shift the campaign onto territory where it feels comfortable, as party leader Alberto Núñez Feijóo and his close circle doubled down on their strategy to present themselves as steady-handed executives.

Feijóo’s first move after the accident was to chair a closed-door gathering of 15 railway experts to project an image of a jefe interested in technicalities.

A second party official explained to Madrid Playbook that the party’s new mantra was: “Management, management, management.” When Sánchez called the snap election in early October, the PP rolled out posters that read “FINALLY.” In the days following the rail accident, the party added “management” to that original slogan. “Finally, management.”

While that low-drama C-suite approach may appeal to the PP, the obvious political challenge is that Vox — which is eyeing key ministries in the next administration — is running a very different type of campaign. Vox relishes political drama.

It was the only party to push on with campaign rallies immediately after the rail disaster and has accused the government of being “a bunch of crooks” who are planning to “steal the election.” Highly outspoken in its hostility to migration, Vox suggested the eviction of 87-year-old Maricarmen Abascal, which sparked nationwide protests, would never have happened if she had been North African.

Guillermo Fernández Vázquez, a political scientist at Madrid’s Carlos III University, noted that Santiago Abascal and others founded Vox in 2013 precisely in rejection of the moderate profiles that dominated Mariano Rajoy’s PP at the time.

This means the challenge for the PP is now twofold. Firstly, its cachet as calm and collected managers could be eroded by Vox’s incendiary politics. Secondly, the party could be leaving its own ideological right flank exposed to Abascal’s party.

Even facing that second risk, the PP looks set to stick to its guns. “Even if Vox were to take votes from us with more aggressive messages, we want to be the safe haven for centrist voters,” said the first PP official.

Still, the PP is clearly alive to the danger that it will have to maintain an appeal to two types of voter. That is demonstrated by the politicians Feijóo chose for the highly symbolic second and third places on the Madrid list for the election, usually seen as the praetorian guard of the leader: Cayetana Álvarez de Toledo, one of the flag bearers of the right-wing faction, and Borja Sémper, representative of the more moderate and liberal wing.

Questionable record

For its part, the Socialist Party isn’t buying the PP’s talk of prudent management.

“For the PP and Vox to try to present themselves as guarantors of good governance is a deception of the public,” said Rebeca Torró, the Socialist Party organization secretary and spokesperson. “Those who, through their denialism, their cuts and the way they weaken public services, are part of the problem and cannot be part of the solution,” Torró added.

Left-wing parties accuse the PP of hypocrisy, pointing out for example that it was a PP-led administration in Valencia that mishandled the deadly floods in October 2024 in which 229 people died. Carlos Mazón, the PP’s then-president of the Valencia region, was at a restaurant for hours as the crisis unfolded. He didn’t resign until a year later.

Alberto Ibáñez, member of parliament for the leftist Valencian party Compromís, said that the PP “is in no position to lecture anyone on public ethics.” The conservative party “is still keeping Mazón in his seat in the Valencian parliament to preserve his parliamentary protection and keep him from being tried,” said Ibáñez.

Intriguingly, however, the Socialists do look like they are trying to play the PP at its own game. After Óscar Puente resigned as minister of transport after the rail crash, Sánchez chose his most technocratic and discreet minister to lead the transport department: Economy Minister Carlos Cuerpo. The Socialists also want to look like cool-headed managers.

Division of labor

For now, the PP and Vox seem content to keep out of each other’s way, as long as it enables them to topple Sánchez.

In a recent op-ed in Diario de Cádiz, Enrique García-Máiquez, a Vox candidate for the senate, writing about a possible rightward shift by the PP, said that “it would be wise for the two parties ready to kick out Sánchez not to step on each other’s toes on the dance floor.”

Political scientist Fernández Vázquez thought there were tangible signs of cooperation. “Unlike the 2023 campaign, Catalonia is now a topic that isn’t talked about at all. Why? Because the right’s takeaway was that they didn’t get the majority three years ago due to an extraordinary voter turnout in Catalonia that heavily favored the Socialists,” he said.

But he warned that the PP-Vox truce would likely fall apart after the election.

“If they ultimately form a government, things will not be easy for Feijóo. Vox will exert significant pressure and will derive a certain satisfaction from occasionally forcing his hand and humiliating him — because that’s rooted in Vox’s origins.”

MADRID — Trailing in the polls ahead of Nov. 29 national elections, Spain’s ruling Socialist Party is turning to TikTok. Not to use it, but to try to ban it. 

Following the publication on Monday of a Spanish investigation accusing TikTok of allowing child sexual abuse material, the youth ministry announced it would try to block the platform.

On Wednesday the prosecutor’s office opened a preliminary inquiry, prompting a triumphant post on X by Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez. “Great news,” he wrote. “The days of impunity on social media are over. No platform is above the law, and much less above the rights of our children.”

The bombshell report by civil society group Maldita has shocked Spain and given the government a chance to show it’s tough on Big Tech just ahead of a momentous election, with polls showing the right firmly ahead.

Over the past 72 hours the government has pulled every available legal lever against TikTok, including lodging cases with both the Data Protection Agency and the public prosecutor’s office.

The reality that EU legal thresholds for shutting off open platforms are relatively high isn’t slowing the public onslaught. In a TV interview aired Monday after Maldita’s investigation was released, Sánchez cast his government as a bulwark against Big Tech. “If we have to suspend a social media platform in Spain, have no doubt that we’ll do so,” he said.

TikTok says the company moved quickly to identify and remove content after the Maldita report was published. “CSAM (child sexual abuse material) is categorically prohibited on our platform, and we deploy advanced detection technologies alongside a dedicated Child Safety Team to aggressively identify and eliminate it,” a TikTok spokesperson said. “As bad actors continuously adapt their tactics, we work tirelessly to improve our safeguards.”

Sánchez has every reason to turn the conversation toward protecting children and holding foreign tech companies accountable after sagging in the polls following last month’s train crash in Toledo that killed 69 people. The Socialist leader explained this week that his government was pushing to enforce the “criminal liability of the leaders of these platforms.”

Still, the points Sánchez is looking to score by targeting Big Tech may be limited because his main opponent also slammed TikTok for failing to act.

Alberto Núñez Feijóo, leader of the conservative People’s Party and current favorite to be Spain’s next prime minister, met on Tuesday with Maldita’s team. “It’s shocking, and we can’t look the other way,” he wrote on X. “We have a duty to protect children, and this is one of my top priorities for families.” 

Borja Sémper, a key PP lawmaker who attended the meeting between Feijóo and the investigative team, said: “What’s happening on TikTok is unacceptable. We’re not going to let this go.”

The Socialist Party has positioned itself as Spain’s toughest voice against the platforms, and Sánchez has made clashes with “techno-oligarchs” a key campaign calling card. 

A spokesperson for Spain’s digital ministry pointed to the PP and the far-right Vox as partly responsible for the inaction over TikTok, given that they voted against the government’s designation of the National Markets and Competition Commission as the regulator of digital services. By rejecting the motion, the spokesperson said, they deprived the state of “the tools to protect our children.”

Earlier this week, Youth Minister Sira Rego asked the country’s data protection watchdog to suspend TikTok. “If it were up to us, TikTok would have been shut down from the very moment we learned of the investigation,” said a ministry official, who was granted anonymity to discuss the issue. “But we don’t have the authority to do so.” 

The same official said the Ministry of Youth and Children had met with Spain’s TikTok team but hadn’t received a satisfactory response. “We asked them to voluntarily suspend their services in Spain,” the official said, adding the platform had only agreed to “look into it” without providing a timeline.

Bans are hard

The only way for the Spanish government to force a suspension of the service is to get a court order. The ministry has written to the State Attorney General’s Office to open an investigation that could lead to a suspension of operations, the official said. 

In 2024, Spanish judge Santiago Pedraz ordered Telegram to be blocked for three days before reversing his decision, ruling that the measure wasn’t proportionate. The precedent is there, and shows that although a ban is possible, it is also unlikely.

The current Spanish push isn’t the first time a European government facing tough elections has floated suspending an online platform in response to illegal content.

Just last month, the French government touted the suspension of social media amid widespread protests, but a constitutional court partly struck it down, saying it wasn’t in line with French law. Back in 2025 the Albanian government banned TikTok for just over a year, citing concerns over violence among children, although opposition parties accused the administration of trying to stifle criticism ahead of general elections.

But the constitutions of EU countries and bloc-wide rules don’t easily allow such measures. Laws to regulate big online platforms like TikTok are harmonized across the EU, which significantly limits what Madrid can do alone. 

The EU’s privacy rulebook, the General Data Protection Regulation, is enforced by national regulators. Ireland’s data protection authority oversees TikTok, which means the Youth Ministry’s request to Spain’s privacy regulator, the AEPD, is unlikely to go far. 

The AEPD cannot impose a permanent TikTok ban in Spain, but it could trigger what’s known as an “urgency procedure” under the GDPR. 

The emergency measure allows a privacy regulator to impose legally binding measures domestically that can last up to three months, where there is “urgent need to act” to protect people’s privacy rights.

The AEPD said that Ireland’s privacy regulator is the main authority responsible for TikTok’s compliance with privacy rules and said it will “share all available information with the Irish authority” and other European privacy regulators. 

The regulator said it has asked Maldita for a list of links to alleged unlawful processing of minors’ data, and asked TikTok what it has done to take down the reported content. 

TikTok’s wider content moderation practices are regulated by the Digital Services Act, which gives the European Commission oversight powers over big platforms. Brussels already has several probes open against TikTok and has said in preliminary findings that the Chinese-owned platform breaches the rules by failing to protect minors and by designing an addictive service, although it hasn’t issued any fines.

Christine Lagarde, the departing president of the European Central Bank, would fare as well as center-right candidate Edouard Philippe were she to run in next year’s French presidential election, according to new polling commissioned by POLITICO.

Lagarde, who served as French economy minister almost two decades ago under former President Nicolas Sarkozy, would get 14% of the vote were she to run instead of Philippe, who would receive 13.5% against a similar slate of candidates, according to polling from Cluster17.

While Lagarde has previously ruled out running, her early departure from the ECB next February has renewed speculation she could take part in a contest where centrist and right-wing candidates have struggled to break through.

In a highly unlikely scenario in which Lagarde runs next to Philippe and multiple recently declared candidates, including Olympic judo champion Teddy Riner and columnist Natasha Polony, she would also rival President Emmanuel Macron’s former prime minister with 8% support.

In both cases, far-right candidate Marine Le Pen and leftist hopeful Jean-Luc Mélenchon are projected to finish first and second, respectively, which would qualify them for next May’s runoff round.

Cluster17’s survey, the first public poll to test a Lagarde candidacy, shows the centrist vote is “very fluid,” according to the institute’s president, Jean-Yves Dormagen. “At this stage there is a patent lack of leadership in the moderate and centrist space.”

The centrist camp is grappling with an internal conflict between Philippe and Gabriel Attal, another former prime minister. Philippe, who was once a favorite to face Le Pen in the second round, has struggled to gain traction despite months of campaigning, POLITICO’s Poll of Polls show.

Conservative Bruno Retailleau, who served as interior minister under Macron, is also a candidate along with right-wing Cannes Mayor David Lisnard and center-left MEP Raphaël Glucksmann. All hope to defy the increasing odds of a Le Pen-Mélenchon runoff.

Lagarde previously dismissed her candidacy as “not a good idea at all,” but since announcing her early exit from the ECB on Oct. 29 she has avoided answering the question directly.

Asked by POLITICO whether she was still ruling out running during a panel at the Paris Peace Forum on Wednesday, Lagarde stuck to her guns: “I said I want to recover my freedom to speak, my freedom to engage in matters that are not monetary policy, and that’s what I want to do.”

Lagarde will leave her ECB post on Feb. 7 next year, about a month before presidential hopefuls must formally apply to run.

LONDON — Nigel Farage is crying foul as pollsters place his struggling Reform UK behind right-wing rivals, the Conservative Party.

A combination of scandal and a rejuvenated opposition has seen Reform slump to a second-place tie with the Conservatives for much of the last fortnight, according to POLITICO’s Poll of Polls.

There are potentially years to run until the next U.K. general election — and British politics remains volatile. But it represents a steep fall from when Farage was being treated as Britain’s next prime minister and his right-wing outfit spent a year out in first place ahead of the governing Labour Party.

It’s a major test of Reform’s claim to be the best-placed right-wing vessel to stop another Labour victory.

So what’s Farage’s answer? He is increasingly trying to remind voters how the Conservatives operated in government — and claiming the polls themselves are bogus.

POLITICO spoke to half a dozen figures on Reform’s frontline to try and understand their gripes with the polling. All were granted anonymity, like others in this piece, because of the generally held convention in Westminster that parties don’t discuss polling.

Farage goes after the number-crunchers

“The jiggery-pokery that is going on with polling is utterly astonishing,” Farage told journalists after a speech last week. “What you’ve seen from the polling industry is nonsense, and I mean that.”

The Reform UK leader claimed that the “raw data” shows his party is really eight points clear of the Tories — and berated a “desperate push from the establishment” to get back to the “Tweedledum and Tweedledee” state of two-party politics.

Two senior Reform Party insiders challenged the methodology used by Britain’s pollsters. They argued that Reform’s polling is suppressed because of the way undecided voters are partially stacked with the party they voted for at the last election. Both insiders argued this would harm the party because it was a much more nascent outfit back in 2024.

The party is also sharing alternative calculations that adjust for higher turnout than pollsters assume for Reform voters.

But that assessment is already being challenged by parts of the polling industry.

Three polling experts denied the extent to which these factors would have a major influence on Reform’s polling. A fourth, the More in Common think tank, provided POLITICO with a detailed explainer of how its findings put Reform in third place on its own tracker regardless of how they crunch their data.

From leaving the results raw to removing “don’t knows,” Reform UK remains behind the Tories in the research group’s findings. In a bid to boost polling transparency, More in Common is preparing to publish a detailed explainer of how it arrives at its findings.

YouGov’s Anthony Wells said turnout calculations don’t tend to hurt Reform because it’s assumed the party’s voters skew older, and therefore are more likely to actually vote than their left-wing rivals. “It’s wrong to assume all these things always work against Reform,” he added.

Farage’s summer to forget

Voting intention isn’t the only polling of concern to Reform. A YouGov survey carried out last week has Tory Leader Badenoch far outpolling Farage on who would make the best prime minister. In the same study, she picks up far more Reform support in a head-to-head against Labour Prime Minister Andy Burnham than Farage gets from Tory voters.

Polling is central to one of the scandals that has dampened Reform’s performance in recent months. Two of Farage’s top advisers left their roles in the middle of the party’s conference in September after being caught in a sting alleging they were eliciting foreign donations to pay for “off-the-book” polling (an internal investigation has cleared them but a police probe is ongoing).

Many in Reform privately accept that their support has been harmed by their recent troubles — which also extend to undercover exposés broadcasting racism in the ranks.

One senior official argued the party has been a “victim of our own success” in dislodging Labour’s Keir Starmer and then suffering under a polling “bounce” for his successor as prime minister, Andy Burnham.

Others recognized a torrid season for Reform had been twinned with a genuine improvement by Badenoch at the helm of the Tories. “Obviously it’s not been a good summer — that’s clear,” said a high-ranking Reform adviser. “A lot of it is because we’ve not a lot to say on a concentrated level whereas the Conservatives have very successfully organized their firepower in that regard.”

No alarms and no surprises, please

One of the senior Reform insiders cited above sought to argue that the polling now represents what would’ve been a sensible trajectory for the party from the 2024 general election to the next one, not due until summer 2029.

“The problem is there was an exaggerated, artificial burst that we as much as everybody else probably put too much faith in when Labour were clearly rubbish and the Tories were nowhere. So this feels more natural,” they said.

“The problem is the direction of travel which we don’t like. But we think we are at a floor and the Tories are at a ceiling.”

Many in Reform argue they still have a claim to being what Farage has called “real opposition” because the Conservatives are increasingly appealing to their former heartlands in southern England, while Reform gains support across Britain.

The same high-ranking adviser cited above expressed some optimism about plans to unveil more front-line figures, like the naming of a former Royal Air Force officer as armed forces spokesperson last week.

“It would’ve caused undue alarm if we’d unveiled our whole team and a whole policy offering and then we were trailing,” they said of the polling. “That’s why there’s not a sense of panic or disaster about it — it’s because we’ve got plenty in the kitbag ready to bring out.”

But those on the peripheries of the party put it more bluntly. 

One Westminster lobbyist in regular discussion with Reform staff reported that the mood among them has “taken a real knock” over the past six months.

The prospect of the Conservatives regaining credibility as the main party of the right, they said, remains a particularly “sensitive subject” that officials are focused on knocking down.

As the senior Reform insider quoted above put it: “Clearly we are in a battle for the narrative, and it’s tough when the entirety of the media is determined to try and present the Tories as resurgent when actually still they’re doing no better than they did in 2024.”

Painting a thousand words

Amid the focus on perception, one recent own goal was particularly awkward for the party.

A set-piece press conference in Westminster that Farage threw with his would-be chancellor Robert Jenrick was half-empty. For a party that prides itself on its ability to draw big crowds, this gave the appearance that the fans had stopped flocking.

Farage — with his back to the supporters who did turn up (they were rearranged behind him to ensure the TV cameras weren’t broadcasting the empty chairs) — sharply blamed “staff incompetence” for the poor turnout. One angered aide attributed the unforced error to an “email mess-up.”

Rather than a policy reset, inside Reform they are now mounting a fightback centered on reminding voters of the Conservatives’ track record. They aim to paint the Tories as a party that misruled Britain for 14 years until Labour’s landslide victory.

Farage tried this appeal to the public in response to a question from POLITICO at a press conference last week, urging voters to “remember what they are — who they are. They will tell any lie they have to.”

“Yes, Kemi is a new face, but it’s all the same people running it,” he added. “The same cynical, nasty people who spend their lives tearing chunks out of each other, doing their best to do down their opposition.”

A reconciliation of the two right-wing parties to combat Labour does not seem to be on the cards.

There may be (more) trouble ahead

Reform is meanwhile braced for more negative headlines over donations. Farage suggested to the BBC over the weekend that he expects to fall foul of the ongoing parliamentary investigation into an undisclosed £5 million donation from a crypto billionaire.

That may leave him facing another by-election in his Clacton constituency if he wishes to remain an MP.

Farage continues to give the impression he’s up for the fight, trying to visibly campaign around the country twice a week.

But observers of Reform have noted how Jenrick and Zia Yusuf, Farage’s combative home affairs spokesperson, are making themselves — and their divergent approaches to politics — look available in case a vacancy arises.

Behind the scenes, the allegations that prompted the departures of senior Farage aides Dan Jukes and James Orr have also necessitated a rejig.

Jenrick’s spinner Tom Milford will become the party’s head of press, while Amar Johal, a former government lawyer who’s widely respected in Reform circles, has been formally promoted to succeed Orr as policy chief, two people with knowledge of the appointment told POLITICO. 

Keep calm and Kemi on

In the ornate tearooms of parliament, shadow cabinet ministers are careful to disguise their joy at encroaching on Reform’s territory in the polls. 

“Do we look like a party that celebrates being second place? We are winners. We are winners,” as one Conservative frontbencher strained to tell POLITICO.

But a senior Tory with a keen eye on strategy said achieving “crossover” in the polls “was definitely an objective we had.” 

The same shadow cabinet minister cited earlier argued that a lot of Reform’s support is “transactional” and that many voters on the right will “support any party to defeat the left.”

“We do think we’ve got a big opportunity now to build on that. If we can convince people we are the party that can defeat Labour a lot of people will come over to support us,” they added.

At Tory high command, they reckon Badenoch’s relative personal popularity is finally starting to rub off on the rest of the party.

“It was only a matter of time before the party started to catch up with Kemi,” a senior Conservative adviser said. “Obviously, the party still has a long, long way to go, so I don’t want to sound complacent, but we are starting to see the sense that this is a different party than the one voters rejected in 2024. That is starting to percolate.”

At the same time, they argued, Reform has “increasingly looked like they embody all of the worst parts of Westminster after claiming they were going to be an antidote to it.” 

More in Common on Wednesday will publish fresh research that will go down well in Conservative Campaign Headquarters.

Since May, there has been a sharp drop in voters who believe Reform is the main party of the right. Down from 43%, Reform is now tied at 30% with the “don’t knows.” The Conservatives are now just behind Reform on 28%, up from 17%.

“To be honest, uniting the right is now very tricky because two parties are now on the same amount,” the senior Reform official conceded.

As for Labour, Burnham insists he won’t be calling an election any time in the next year — and there is plenty of evidence to suggest that holding off is the right move.

But the prime minister will hope that the deep split on the right of British politics stays entrenched until after polling day.

Esther Webber and Noah Keate contributed reporting. 

BRUSSELS — You know that customer-service bot that won’t let you cancel your subscription? The EU wants to kill it.  

With a new law presented Wednesday, the European Commission will take aim at the endless array of practices websites have used over the past 20 years to make more money from consumers.  

The Digital Fairness Act is the European response to a wider regulatory trend that has seen consumer authorities curb irksome and exploitative practices. These include dynamic pricing that changes ticket prices based on demand, cumbersome processes for canceling subscriptions and the near-complete surrender of customer service to automated systems.  

According to a draft of the DFA obtained by POLITICO, the Commission will address several aspects of the design, service and terms under which businesses interact with consumers online. 

“Europe should not accept a digital economy where profits depend on exploiting people’s vulnerabilities,” Spanish socialist lawmaker Laura Ballarín Cereza, a key European lawmaker on tech legislation, said in a statement.

Industry leaders have pushed back on this potential new rulebook ever since the EU executive began considering a revision of consumer law in 2022. They say current consumer protection and digital services laws already cover these practices. “Where existing rules already cover a practice, it should not be regulated or enforced a second time,” said Ben Brake, director general of tech lobby DOT Europe.  

Consumer groups say existing rules, some dating back to 2005, are not clear enough and that many unfair design practices are still rampant.  

The Commission would have the power to impose fines of up to 6% of global annual revenue for companies that violate the new law. Those penalties are similar to fines levied under the Digital Services Act, the EU’s platform rules meant to stop Big Tech platforms from provoking systemic, society-wide harms through everything from election interference to keeping minors away from violent content. The new law instead would apply to any business offering services to EU consumers online. 

Dark patterns

The DFA would ban deceptive design known as “dark patterns,” which manipulate consumers through the use of such tactics as bright-colored buttons placed prominently to get customers to buy something. It also aims to ban personalized pricing that targets vulnerable consumers, including minors.  

The practice of dynamic pricing is also targeted in the law. That’s when a seller adjusts the price based on conditions such as demand or a user’s location, and it is commonly used in the sale of concert and airline tickets. The proposed law requires transparency when customers are buying products whose prices are subject to change.  

The DFA also covers consumer rights around “agentic commerce,” when artificial intelligence agents are used to find and complete purchases. 

Four lawmakers from the conservative, socialist and liberal groups said the requirement doesn’t go far enough and that the DFA should completely ban dynamic pricing for cultural and sporting events, according to a letter obtained by POLITICO. 

Sellers offering subscriptions will have to provide an easy way to cancel, reminiscent of New York State’s “click to cancel” rules. The new EU rules also require that a human is available for after-sales customer support.  

The rules also address, for the first time, specific aspects of online gaming, including bans on video games that allow kids to pay to succeed and progress in the game.  

The DFA is also trying to make its mark on what is known as “addictive design” of online platforms. This has already been the target of enforcement action in Europe and litigation in the U.S. in cases involving minors. But the new consumer rules would apply to adults as well, requiring online platforms to offer an opt-out from addictive features like autoplay.  

Spain’s Ballarín Cereza thinks this is not enough, saying users should be opted out of these features by default. “Why should consumers carry the burden when companies deliberately design these addictive mechanisms? We must shift from consumer responsibility to corporate responsibility: safety and fairness must be the default, not an option,” she said. 

MADRID — Spain’s election this month risks pushing the explosive issue of Catalan independence right back up the political agenda.

Nearly a decade after a separatist drive in Catalonia plunged Spain into a constitutional crisis in 2017–2018, the topic now lies dormant, barely making the headlines.

But that could change quickly if the conservative People’s Party (PP) and the far-right Vox take power in the vote on Nov. 29, as polls predict. Their staunch brand of unionism could well inflame feelings across the region of 8 million people.

“We know that they are certain to cut back our self-governing powers and intervene in Catalan society in a very heavy way,” Francesc-Marc Álvaro, a candidate for the Senate in the upcoming election for the Catalan Republican Left (ERC), said. “This would amount to throwing gasoline on Catalan society.”

Lawmaker Míriam Nogueras from the pro-independence Junts party said Catalonia had “never been respected by any Spanish regime or government,” and the next would be no exception. “Whatever its political color, the next Spanish government will be exactly the same as the previous one on one fundamental issue: Catalonia,” she said, adding that “the independence movement will regain momentum, and it will do so with renewed strength, because Catalonia’s dependence on Spain makes everyone poorer.”

For Madrid, the stakes are economic as well as political. Catalonia is Spain’s second-biggest autonomous region after Andalusia, representing about 19% of the national economy and 16.5% of the population.

End of Sánchez era

Socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez took office shortly after a failed independence drive in 2017 saw several nationalist politicians flee abroad and nine others jailed.

In contrast to the PP’s uncompromising approach to Catalonia, Sánchez negotiated with pro-independence parties, making concessions in exchange for their parliamentary support.

An amnesty benefiting Catalans involved in the secession attempt angered the Spanish right but helped calm the political atmosphere in the region, eliminating a major nationalist grievance.

Meanwhile, the cross-party unity between separatists that was so instrumental in driving the independence movement a decade ago has dissolved.

Although 43% of Catalans remain in favor of independence, according to the regional government’s statistics institute, the topic has fallen off their list of priorities, behind housing, immigration and crime.

Carles Puigdemont, the former Catalan president who led the 2017 secession bid, recently admitted that “nine years on, the independence movement is fragmented and weakened.”

Speaking to Catalan news outlet El Punt Avui from Waterloo, Belgium, the separatist said: “What I want is to stop being Spanish. I don’t say this as an act of rejection or contempt. I often compare it to someone who feels like a woman trapped in a man’s body,” adding that he should be able to “cancel” Spanish nationality like any other subscription.

Reviving old traumas

The big question now is to what degree hostility from the PP and Vox could rebuild the movement.

PP leader Alberto Núñez Feijóo, citing Sánchez’s willingness to engage with Catalan nationalists, accused him of leading a government that “has begun a process of separation with and deconstruction of the constitutional system of 1978.”

Vox rose to prominence on the back of its fierce opposition to Catalan separatism. It has called for pro-independence parties to be made illegal and advocates the dismantling of Spain’s decentralized political structure, which it claims is wasteful and encourages regional nationalism.

“We want to make [separatist parties’] life as difficult as possible, because they’ve been making life impossible for Spaniards in general,” said Vox spokesperson José Antonio Fúster. “We are going to work, without a doubt, to make sure that pro-independence parties accept that the unity of Spain cannot be meddled with, is not questioned — otherwise it is clear that they must not form part of the Spanish political landscape.”

For now, however, both the PP and Vox are not taking a directly confrontational approach on Catalonia.

In an interview with Barcelona-based newspaper La Vanguardia, Feijóo insisted that the region had nothing to fear from him. 

“I’m not here to centralize; I’m here to make self-government work and for the Spanish state to have a presence in Catalonia,” he said. He also complained, on the region’s behalf, that budgeted public works were not being carried out there, echoing a longstanding grievance among Catalan nationalists.

The PP leader said he planned to repeal the amnesty law benefiting Catalan nationalists, a move that would not have any practical effect. However, he also pointed to his own Galician background to underline that he understood the “issue of language, the identity- and cultural-based sentiment” associated with coming from one of Spain’s regions. 

So far during the election campaign, Vox has also toned down its rhetoric on Catalonia. Party leader Santiago Abascal has instead prioritized clamping down on immigration, saying that Catalan identity needs to be protected from “Islamism.”

Vox’s relatively muted approach to Catalonia appears influenced by a desire not to antagonize voters of Catalan Alliance (AC), a far-right pro-independence party that will not run against it in the general election.

Wolves in sheep’s clothing

The Socialist Catalan president, Salvador Illa, is one of many who remain unconvinced by the emollient approach from the right during the campaign.

“These wolves are now presenting themselves as little lambs when it comes to regional government,” he said. “We’ve spent 47 years building our regional self-government. And in just one legislature of Feijóo and Abascal, it could all go down the toilet.”

The policies of a new right-wing government would likely depend on the balance of power between the PP and Vox. Dismantling the system of regional government may be a step too far, as might the outlawing of pro-independence parties, both of which the PP has resisted in the past.

A less dramatic but nonetheless significant move might revolve around the use of the Catalan language, which has previously been a political flashpoint.

Eliminating the use of regional languages — such as Catalan, Basque, Valencian and Galician — during debates in the Spanish Congress might be an easy policy to implement for a PP-Vox administration. It would also, according to Oriol Bartomeus, director of Barcelona’s Institute for Political and Social Sciences, be “a declaration of war” for separatists.

Álvaro, of the pro-independence ERC, sees a prototype for what PP and Vox would be likely to do once in government in Valencia and the Balearic Islands, where the two parties govern together and have introduced measures aimed at reducing the use of those regions’ local languages, which are variants of Catalan. 

“A PP-Vox government will definitely be militantly opposed to the language immersion model” in place in Catalan schools, Álvaro said. He also foresees a right-wing administration cutting back the Catalan government’s financing and powers in areas such as policing.

Feijóo’s willingness to exploit unionist feeling — and rile Catalan nationalists — could depend on his ability to resist the pressure of his likely coalition partner. It could also depend on how his government fares elsewhere.

“The Catalan issue is always there, liable to be used to serve political interests,” said Bartomeus, who sees the PP taking a harder line on the territorial issue if it underperforms in the election. “If you can’t implement, for example, a successful economic policy, you can always wage a culture war.”

If the next Spanish government takes a hardline approach to unionism, that would be more likely to re-energize Catalan separatism.

Puigdemont’s Junts per Catalunya party, which has been struggling in polls and helped trigger the snap election by voting in Congress against housing measures presented by Sánchez, has been awaiting a change of administration in Madrid, according to Bartomeus.

“Junts thinks that a PP-Vox government will favor a revival of the independence movement,” he said. “They are banking on the idea of a Spanish nationalist government in Madrid which is dedicated to screwing Catalonia. The objective is to reproduce the blueprint that led to [the events of 2017].”

Junts’ leader, Puigdemont, recently pointed to the “extreme division” in Spanish politics. Identifying an opportunity for his cause, he said that “even in the most difficult times for the independence movement, Spain generates crises of which we should be prepared to take advantage.”

Puigdemont has been living in Belgium since leading the 2017 independence bid. After a lengthy legal wrangle, the Spanish judiciary has finally declared that the Catalan amnesty can be applied to him.

His return home, expected after the election, could provide a morale boost to pro-independence Catalans just as a Spanish right that abhors separatism enters government.

As he himself puts it: “Even in the most difficult moments for the movement, Spain generates crises that we should be prepared to exploit.”

LONDON — Democratic wins across the U.S. brought a brief rush of excitement to Britain’s left-wing establishment last week — but they also contained warnings for Prime Minister Andy Burnham’s government.

Labour insiders privately cheered the midterm results, interpreting the outcome as a damning verdict on Donald Trump’s politics and a win for Democrats’ unifying strategy of focusing on living standards, despite ideological differences across their slate of candidates.

It’s left Burnham’s followers cautiously optimistic about his approach so far as prime minister, which has included incremental measures to lower costs, such as reducing food tariffs and offering money off energy bills.

A Labour MP, granted anonymity like others in this article to speak frankly, said their own engagement with Democratic New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s team had hammered home “the politics of trying.”

“If people think you’re not even trying, which obviously is what they thought about Trump, then you’re just going to get blown away,” they said. By making small adjustments, the MP argued, Burnham has begun to “develop a coherent argument — which is actually voters have to see you trying on the cost of living.”

Yet beyond this apparent vindication of the PM’s basic strategy, members of his party see clear warning signs for the incumbent British government in the U.S. political shift. An administration only just coming out of a dire stretch in public opinion polls, they worry, could take the wrong lessons from the Dems’ triumph across the pond if they don’t heed the deep anti-incumbent sentiment that drove it.

Reasons to be fearful

Burnham has badged his fledgling administration as a “cost of living government” since he replaced Keir Starmer at the top of Labour earlier this year.

Yet he has faced criticism from some quarters that a government-wide budget unveiled last month lacked real ambition — and now the pressure is on to deliver before a general election, due by 2029.

Claire Ainsley, a former adviser to Starmer who works for the Progressive Policy Institute think tank on both sides of the Atlantic, told POLITICO that, despite arguments about the future direction of the Democratic Party, “what they’ve all had in common is a real focus on affordability.”

“They’ve really focused on bread-and-butter issues for everyday Americans, and clearly that’s the path to be building and hopefully winning in 2028,” she said.

Ainsley highlighted striking moves by a host of prominent Democratic politicians, including Mamdani, who has offered childcare support to New Yorkers, and New Jersey’s Mikie Sherrill — who declared “a state of emergency” on utility bills. Virginia’s Abigail Spanberger has targeted the cost of prescriptions.

“You’ve still got people who are worried here and wouldn’t necessarily say the cost of living is being relieved,” Ainsley warned. “You’ve got interest rates going up and there are lots of warning signs on our dashboard.”

Adam Terry, executive director of the Future Governance Forum think tank, argued likewise that Burnham’s action on the “little things” was part of the answer — but that he has not yet tackled “the big structural questions, namely: why is the economy so sluggish?”

That need to provide deeper solutions to Britain’s woes only raises the stakes for Burnham’s promised ten-year plan and his broader strategy for rewiring the British state, Terry said.

The same Labour MP quoted at the top of the piece — while broadly positive about Burnham’s impact so far — said: “It’s not a coincidence that basically every government in Britain since Brexit has failed usually within 18 months — and I would include in that Keir Starmer’s. Clearly systemic change is definitely required.”

Deborah Mattinson, a Labour member of the House of Lords and pollster who has worked in both the U.S. and U.K., cautioned progressives against believing the age of Trump-style politics is over, “because until things that encourage Trumpism are fixed, it won’t happen.

She added that in the U.S. — and in Germany and France, too — “working people feel the contract that they made with the state has fallen down.”

“The U.K. needs to be really mindful that if you don’t fix those fundamental grievances that people have, then you continue to be in a bind,” Mattinson added.

Up against it

Even those at the top of Labour sense that the PM is up against it if he is to buck the anti-incumbency trend demonstrated by the punishment of Republicans right across the United States.

A senior Labour aide observed that the midterm results strengthened the Democrats as they begin to target the White House in 2028 — but in the meantime they face a similar dilemma of delivery as Burnham.

No.10 Downing Street knows it needs to improve people’s lives, the aide said — but it remains “very difficult” to pull one lever that makes a substantial difference without upsetting financial markets.

Burnham has already been quick to draw a direct line between the U.S. electoral shift and politics closer to home. “I can’t get people’s cost of living pressures down until the conflict in the Middle East is resolved,” he said last week — while urging world leaders to “unite” around efforts to wind down the war.

Here, too, the prime minister may be testing the limits of his own country’s ability to shift the diplomatic dial — while few expect a calmer international picture in which Burnham can really bear down on costs.

Britain will stick to a steady drumbeat of quiet diplomacy for the rest of the year, two people inside government said, including talks with G7 and G20 partners, ongoing contact with Gulf allies, and a bid to maximize the U.K.’s G20 presidency starting in January. 

But a minister in Burnham’s government predicted that when it comes to international relations, and especially military action, Trump’s election drubbing “will not make much difference” to his mindset. 

Anxiety in London over Trump’s next move has certainly not been quelled by initial post-election ripples within the White House, either. Ministers and aides are watching nervously for further news of Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s future — generally seen as a reliable interlocutor with the U.K. — while one serving British diplomat said Stephen Miller’s installation as Trump’s chief of staff represented a “red flag.” 

The senior party official quoted above said: “The U.S.’s relationship with every single country in the world has just been thrown into a level of uncertainty and fluidity.”

MADRID — Spain’s center-right People’s Party has pledged to “put a stop to the imposition of unrealistic timelines” for climate goals if it wins the national elections on Nov. 29, a significant pivot from the Sánchez government’s pro-green policies.

The PP, the favorite to win the vote, said decarbonization is an “essential goal for Europe,” but promised to push for an “orderly, realistic, and fair transition,” according to the energy chapter of the party’s manifesto obtained by POLITICO’s Madrid Playbook.

The manifesto said it’s time “to reassess the pace of progress” in the clean energy transition “without dogmatism,” while conceding there are “environmental, geostrategic and economic reasons” behind the decarbonization strategy.

Spain under Socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez has been one of the bloc’s most influential cheerleaders for ambitious climate goals, advocating to protect key EU policies like the Emissions Trading System, pollution reduction targets and the phase-out of gasoline cars.

But the PP’s manifesto shows that would change if the EU’s fourth-largest economy votes for a conservative government led by PP leader Alberto Núñez Feijóo.

Polls point to a clear majority for a coalition between the PP and Vox, a far-right party which is highly hostile to climate policies and is rising in the polls — potentially giving it significant weight in the next cabinet.

Feijóo’s team advocates assessing and relaxing Spain’s climate policy sector by sector, considering three factors: “What is happening in the rest of the world, the technology that is available at the moment, and changes in demand.”

“We will not impose unnecessary obligations and will remove those that harm competitiveness, industry, or employment,” the document adds.

The PP has taken a more skeptical approach to EU climate policy than many of its fellow conservatives in other countries. In November 2025, for example, it voted against the 2040 climate goal in the European Parliament, breaking ranks with most of the EU’s center-right umbrella group, the European People’s Party.

Alberto Nadal, a former secretary of state for energy and for budget under the previous PP government, is the key figure on energy in Feijóo’s team and the mind behind the manifesto’s energy chapter. According to a PP official, he also considered external contributions to the manifesto from experts.  

In a March interview with public broadcaster RNE, Nadal criticized the EU’s “almost Taliban-like or radical” decarbonization strategy. In a recent interview with ElEconomista, Nadal, seen as a possible minister in a future conservative government, shifted his attention to energy prices and industry, without discussing climate or decarbonization.

Nuclear and data centers

The manifesto also proposes extending the operating lifespans of five nuclear plants “with the approval of the Nuclear Safety Council.”

It also points to a change of direction on data centers if there’s a PP-led government, pledging to resolve issues that “are hindering the grid connection” of data centers within 18 months.

The Socialist government has drafted a decree, expected to be approved before the Nov. 29 snap election, that would tie data centers’ access to the electricity grid to sustainability and digital sovereignty requirements. Nadal has already stated that a conservative government will repeal the decree, which he said represents “the end of Spain’s technological future”.

The document also touched on the thorny issue of the 2025 national blackout and commits to updating the operating rules for the electricity system in the first six months in office. In light of what the PP considers a lack of transparency regarding the nationwide blackout, the party has pledged that “every serious incident” will be the subject of its own report.

On the circular economy, the conservative party signals that it won’t “impose additional obligations, accelerate timelines, or squander the investments, infrastructure, and capabilities that Spain already possesses.” That wording casts doubt over the implementation of the country’s deposit return scheme.

PARIS — The Ukrainian government clapped back at French presidential hopeful Jean-Luc Mélenchon on Monday after the far-left leader said a vote could settle territorial disputes.

“‘Referendums’ under occupation are a tool of annexation, not an expression of the people’s will. No civilised, democratic country would ever accept this for its own borders, so it should not be proposed to Ukrainians,” the foreign ministry’s spokesperson Heorhii Tykhyi posted on X. He added that Ukraine previously voted in 1991, and Russia is now looking to change borders with a war.

The backlash came after Mélenchon said at a France Unbowed political rally Saturday that, if in power, he would not back territorial concessions in the war-torn country “without asking the people affected whether they agree to be on one side of the border or the other.”

“The people of Donbas … have the right to decide whether they want to be Ukrainian or Russian,” he argued, referring to a region in eastern Ukraine that is the central territorial dispute of the war with Russia.

It’s not the first time Ukrainian top officials have spatted with France’s presidential front-runners in recent weeks: Last month, the war-torn country’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy also directly replied to far-right candidate Marine Le Pen’s pledge to cut financial aid to Kyiv.

France’s staunch support for Ukraine could be dramatically overturned if Mélenchon or Le Pen wins next year in a high-stakes presidential election to replace Emmanuel Macron. According to polls, the two politicians could face off in the second round.

Like Le Pen, Mélenchon is often accused by political opponents of being soft on Moscow — accusations that are intensifying as the presidential campaign heats up.

After Saturday’s political rally, centrist Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot described the far-left leader as a “Kremlin spokesperson.” Mélenchon dismissed the accusations.

Muriel Domenach, a former French NATO ambassador now working on the campaign for center-left candidate Raphaël Glucksmann, also slammed France Unbowed’s recently released presidential platform that calls for leaving NATO and mentions Ukraine only briefly. France Unbowed lawmaker Bastien Lachaud replied, saying his party has always backed aid to Kyiv until a peace agreement is reached.

“We have made it clear from the outset of the conflict that, as long as these negotiations remain unresolved, aid to Ukraine must continue without reservation,” he said.

PARIS — EU diplomatic chief Kaja Kallas has another enemy who wants her out: Marine Le Pen. 

The far-right French leader wants to dismantle, or at the very least drastically reduce, the EU’s diplomatic arm if she wins the 2027 presidential election, according to four National Rally officials. 

“The reality is that [Kallas’s] usefulness is very limited, and she duplicates the diplomacy of member states,” said Charles-Henri Gallois, adviser to National Rally President Jordan Bardella. “No one recognizes her legitimacy, particularly not the United States, nor China.”

The comments reveal growing tensions over the EU’s power as nationalist parties from France to Germany and Poland seek to wrest power back from Brussels, with foreign policy among their top targets. They also put extra pressure on Kallas and the European External Action Service, which has been locked in a protracted turf war on foreign policy with the European Commission headed by Ursula von der Leyen.

The view inside the National Rally is that the EU’s diplomatic service is not only a waste of taxpayer money but also gets in the way of European nations being able to flex their muscles on the world stage. 

One example is Ukraine, on which Kallas and Le Pen are deeply divided — although they have not clashed publicly. The former Estonian prime minister is one of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s fiercest critics and a staunch supporter of Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy, while Le Pen is pushing for an international peace conference to settle the conflict and says Europe has run out of money to give to Kyiv. 

Kallas has “used very warrior-like language on Ukraine,” said National Rally MEP Jean-Paul Garraud. “We support Ukraine but if we expressed ourselves like that we would be in total war” with Russia, he said.  

Le Pen has directed her most vicious attacks against von der Leyen, who has long been accused by the far right of exceeding her powers. But it’s Kallas and the EEAS that risk becoming collateral damage under a far-right presidency in France.

Le Pen is the front-runner ahead of next year’s presidential election. In a recent visit to Brussels, she vowed to downsize the European Union if she comes to power. 

“France will no longer accept that the Commission exercises diplomatic competences, and even less military or intelligence competencies,” she told reporters. This shrinking of EU institutions would include snipping the wings of the EEAS, according to the four National Rally officials, who were granted anonymity to speak freely.

The move would put the National Rally on a collision course with pro-European parties, which see the EU’s diplomatic arm as an essential tool as the global stage becomes more competitive and more aggressive. 

“If Marine Le Pen becomes president of France, she will quickly realise that … France is a medium-sized country on the global stage,” said Irish Renew MEP Barry Andrews, who chairs the European Parliament’s development committee.

 “Without the collective power of Europe, France has no chance going up against the U.S. or China alone,” he said.

The EEAS snapped back at the criticism. “Across Europe, the far right is against the very idea of European cooperation,” said an EEAS spokesperson. 

“EU diplomacy defends European interests, including those of France. The EU’s global delegation network is a major strategic asset,” the official told POLITICO in response to Le Pen’s comments.

Money matters

The push against Kallas and her diplomats also comes as the National Rally limbers up for a fight with the Commission over France’s EU budget contribution, if they win the election. Last month, the National Rally unveiled its plans for a €11 billion cut to France’s EU contribution for 2027, which is currently expected to total approximately €30 billion. 

POLITICO’s Poll of Polls puts Le Pen on 34% in the first round, well ahead of far-left leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon on 17% and center-right hopeful Edouard Philippe on 16%. Polls also suggest she would beat most of her potential rivals in a runoff.

While France could not unilaterally cut the EEAS’s budget, the National Rally says it sees allies in Italy, in Spain’s nationalist party Vox (which could end up working with the center-right after this month’s election), and in Andrej Babiš’s Czech Republic. 

The offensive could get nasty as the Commission and Le Pen arm-wrestle over money. 

“The EEAS is great for friends of friends, who want jobs,” said one National Rally official. “The real estate bought or rented by the EEAS is a waste of money. I’m shocked to see the amounts involved in local contracts; it’s unbelievable,” said a National Rally MEP. 

Le Pen’s criticism coincides with criticism from European governments about the efficiency of the EU’s foreign policy apparatus, with France and Germany jointly pitching plans to reform the EEAS.

The concerns voiced by senior diplomats in both countries focus on the fact that the EEAS lacks policy tools to influence foreign relations. The Franco-German initiative suggests integrating the EEAS with the Commission, which has a larger budget as well as control over trade and tech policies.

It also coincides with proposals to severely cut back on the EU’s foreign policy budget. Commission officials have internally simulated slashing the bloc’s Global Europe budget — worth €200 billion in the last long-term budget — by as much as 40% in the next budget.

The EEAS itself, which has an annual budget of close to €1 billion and employs more than 5,200 people globally, is working on internal reforms that Secretary-General Kajsa Ollongren is expected to present to staff later this month.

Major budget cuts would have the effect of gutting the EU’s network of more than 100 global delegations, which are staffed by diplomats as well as Commission personnel from external-facing units like DG MENA (the Directorate-General for the Middle East, North Africa and the Gulf).

International organizations have pushed back forcefully against plans to slash the EU’s development aid budget, with United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres writing to the heads of the Commission and Council and urging them to preserve the funding.

Giorgio Leali contributed reporting.

Beneath the chandeliers and oil paintings of his Presidential Palace, Finland’s president Alexander Stubb sat down next to his old friend Jonas Gahr Støre, the Norwegian prime minister, to call Vladimir Putin.

They hoped such a dramatic and direct intervention with Russia’s leader would demonstrate European resolve.

Instead, the conversation on a damp autumn morning in Helsinki triggered the biggest rift among Nordic allies since Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine — and exposed Europe’s wider divisions over how to deal with Moscow at a pivotal moment in the push for peace.

As Russian and Ukrainian negotiators prepare for talks with Donald Trump’s envoys in Abu Dhabi this week, the fallout from the call is still reverberating across Europe. Governments are arguing over who should represent Europe in future negotiations and remain divided over a question at the heart of the debate: Does engaging Putin help deliver peace, or simply reward aggression?

Underlying European anxiety is another dilemma: Can America be trusted to broker a fair deal for them and most of all for Ukraine?

EU leaders will grapple with these questions at an informal summit in Dublin this week. Few involved expect them to agree. 

In an interview with POLITICO in Oslo, Støre explained why he and Stubb decided to call a leader waging hybrid warfare on Europe and killing Ukrainian civilians with daily drone and missile strikes.

“We work closely with our European partners in supporting Ukraine, but the only voice reaching Moscow comes from Washington,” Støre said. “And you know, we have good and open relations with the American negotiators, with the American administration, but this [war] happens in Europe. And living month by month, thinking that this war will end by Europe not talking to Moscow, I think, is an illusion.”

Other countries sharing a border — and a history —  with Putin’s Russia profoundly disagree. 

“Europe should not be in a mediator’s position,” Estonia’s Prime Minister Kristen Michal told POLITICO in another interview. “You should not take the role of trying to please the dictator.”

Based on interviews with politicians, diplomats and officials, many granted anonymity to discuss sensitive matters, this is the inside story of a phone call that shook Europe.

The Trump shock

Europe has struggled for influence over the stop-start Ukraine peace process ever since Trump returned to the White House in early 2025, promptly picked up the phone to Putin and ended U.S. financial assistance to Kyiv. 

Trump’s interventions shattered the transatlantic consensus built under his predecessor Joe Biden, offering Putin the prospect of an advantageous ceasefire and a return to the international fold. 

The U.S.-Iran war this year interrupted momentum but Trump returned to the topic of Ukraine again in October, criticizing President Volodymyr Zelenskyy for continuing to attack Russian energy infrastructure, while declaring that Putin’s side had been “fine”. 

Fearing the negotiations were drifting toward collapse, Stubb and Støre intervened. Støre hosted Zelenskyy and Trump envoy Steve Witkoff in Oslo in an attempt to repair relations. Stubb, who also attended, declared the meeting on Oct. 20 had put the peace process “back on track.”

But 24 hours later, Witkoff again stunned European leaders by meeting Putin in St. Petersburg and praising him as a “humanitarian.”

After consulting Zelenskyy, the two Nordic leaders concluded they could not leave Trump, Witkoff and Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner as the only Western figures speaking directly to Putin.

Old friends

Stubb and Støre have known each other for years and worked closely on Russian affairs when they both served as foreign ministers. They talk and text frequently — and like to pair up on key files despite coming from different political backgrounds. 

They had quietly explored the idea of a joint call to the Kremlin for months and concluded that reviving momentum would be critical ahead of renewed negotiations in Abu Dhabi.

Europeans, many officials privately acknowledge, no longer trusted Washington to defend either Europe’s interests or Ukraine’s.

“We have to ask the question in Europe if we feel that someone else should have the contact and the discussion on our behalf,” one EU government official said. “Is the feeling that the U.S. should own our objectives?”

“It’s important that Donald Trump is not the only leader from the West who talks to Putin,” another senior European official said. “We need pro-Ukraine leaders putting their messages to Putin too.”

So, almost five years after Russia’s diplomatic isolation began, Stubb and Støre decided to call the Kremlin. The Nordic team reached out to Putin’s officials and agreed parameters for the conversation. Each side would take turns to deliver their prepared messages, without interruption from the other.

Omens in oils

Some of the omens were inauspicious from the start. 

As the leaders sat next to each other at the long cabinet table in Stubb’s plush presidential salon on Oct. 27, two large, gilt-framed oil paintings loomed over them, depicting battle scenes from the Crimean War. One canvas shows an Anglo-French naval force retreating under fire on Finnish territory, a reminder of an era two centuries ago when Finland itself was part of the Russian Empire. 

According to some accounts, Putin shared his own keen interest in Russia’s past with the two Nordic leaders — delivering a lengthy lesson on Slavic history and the origins of the war in Ukraine. 

One senior official familiar with the matter said Stubb and Støre listened patiently during the 90-minute conversation. Other European officials briefed on the call denied that Putin had given the two leaders a history lecture at all, and suggested this claim was Russian spin aimed at humiliating the Europeans. 

Støre himself said: “I was present. He didn’t.” Putin has well-worn arguments about the origins of the war, he added. “But in all fairness, he can give his explanation, and we respond to that.”

For their part, the Nordic pair first gave Putin Zelenskyy’s messages — that territorial boundaries can only be discussed at leader level, face to face, and first there must be de-escalation measures. Stubb and his friend then turned to the matter of Baltic Sea security and the need to keep the waterway open for trade. 

One reason for holding the call was to try to judge Putin’s state of mind, according to officials. The Norwegian leader said Putin was “rational” and “professional” on the phone. “His arguments were perfectly clearly transmitted.”

Putin took the idea of talks in Abu Dhabi seriously and told the Nordic pair he would instruct his negotiators to prepare for the meeting to explore if progress is possible. “The fact that he picks up that phone, that we have, you know, other ways of reaching, I think that signals, at least that there’s a readiness to sit down.”

But afterwards, Støre was still not convinced that Putin was genuinely open to a deal. Despite their efforts, the Norwegian and Finnish team do not expect a major breakthrough in Abu Dhabi.

Baltic backlash

When Stubb’s office announced the surprise call had happened, the diplomatic blowback played out live in public.

By coincidence, the leaders of Denmark and Sweden, among others, were already gathered in Helsinki for a Nordic Council meeting. Confronted by TV crews, they made little effort to hide their irritation. 

“I’m very skeptical about this Norwegian and Finnish initiative,” Denmark’s Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen told broadcasters. “I think we should keep Europe united rather than going it alone.”

Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson said peace must come through “strength” rather than “appeasement”. Lithuania also criticized the move. 

In private, some diplomats were even harsher. “There are too many middle-aged men who want to end up in the history books having solved this war,” one EU diplomat said. “Putin is just gaining from opening up a more normalized dialogue with the rest of the world — and continuing to bomb and kill innocent people in Ukraine.” 

Their complaints were not simply over the decision to engage with Putin, but that Stubb and Støre had not properly coordinated with allies beforehand.

Officials familiar with the preparations for the call deny this, insisting that Frederiksen and others including the leadership in France, Germany, and the U.S. were told about the call before it happened. It may just have been that Frederiksen expected more advance warning, and a genuine say over the plan. She said her Finnish and Norwegian counterparts had failed to coordinate the call with “the rest of us.” 

Moscow endorsement

Støre is defiant. “She is right, because I did not ask — we did not ask for permission,” he told POLITICO. “We consult each other in the Nordic family, but it is not a mechanism which is that, you know, doing this requires a yes from all the Nordics or from 27 Europeans or beyond.”

Privately, some officials think Støre aggravated the wound in the immediate aftermath, when he pointed out that the EU had been divided on Russia since the war began. “It’s true — it’s just not his place to say it,” one official said. “Norway is not in the EU.” 

Stubb and Støre say they never sought to speak for anyone other than the countries they lead, which both border Russia. They talked to Zelenskyy at length before the call to agree what to say to Putin and then briefed him again afterwards. 

They had hoped their initiative would bolster Zelenskyy. Instead, the backlash became so intense that the Ukrainian leader stepped in to defend them. “They truly help us,” he said. 

The two Nordic leaders also won an endorsement from Moscow. “I believe it was the right thing to do,” Putin said. “After all, there are some people in Europe who do not want to inflict a strategic defeat on Russia … but seek to establish some kind of constructive dialogue.” 

Putin’s comments are unlikely to soothe lingering resentments between Nordic neighbors. As one official put it, there may be some lasting “family trauma” for those regional leaders who were not included in the Putin call plan. 

For all the northern angst, the episode also exposed a harder truth for Ukraine and its supporters. Despite Trump’s midterm election defeats, he is still dictating the pace of talks. Europe, meanwhile, has no one to match America’s booming voice when it matters in the room. 

Clea Caulcutt, Hans von der Burchard, Veronika Melkozerova and Laurens Cerulus contributed reporting.

Jan Marsalek, the fugitive former Wirecard executive suspected by multiple countries of spying for Russia, claimed that he had helped to bring down Austrian Chancellor Sebastian Kurz, according to documents obtained by the Axel Springer Global Reporters Network, of which POLITICO is a part. 

Marsalek said he had been involved in an operation that had “successfully toppled” Kurz, who stepped down amid corruption allegations in 2021. 

The messages, detailed in investigation files seen by the Telegraph and the Global Reporters Network, were sent to Orlin Roussev, a spy-ring leader who received instructions from Marsalek and has since been jailed in Britain for espionage. The documents contain no independent evidence of the role Marsalek says he has played in Kurz’s downfall. 

If substantiated, Marsalek’s claims would be a clear indicator of the Russian state interfering directly in the political leadership of an EU country. The Kremlin has long sought to sow division and destabilize governments across Europe, according to assessments by multiple security agencies. 

Marsalek is one of the world’s most wanted men and has been on the run since June 2020 when his company, German tech giant Wirecard, collapsed with a €1.9 billion hole in its books.

Since his escape, he has been accused of working for the Kremlin for more than a decade while British police say he is involved in espionage on an “industrial” scale. He is wanted for fraud and is being investigated for spying in several European countries, including his native Austria.

Kurz was the world’s youngest leader when he first became chancellor of Austria in 2017 at the age of 31. But his stratospheric rise, which saw him hold the post twice, was marred by corruption allegations, including that public money was used for political advertising on his behalf. 

When members of Marsalek’s spy ring, led by Roussev, were arrested in the U.K., police seized hundreds of thousands of messages detailing operations plotted from British soil.

Some of these messages were shared with authorities, including Austrian officials, who are currently investigating whether their spies provided information to Marsalek and, in turn, to Russia.

‘Messy story’

One of the investigative files, examined by the Global Reporters Network, contains messages sent by a man whom authorities have identified as Marsalek, using the alias “Rupert Ticz,” on October 22, 2021.

Marsalek mentions a “guy” who “was actually working for us for a while,” adding: “now he’s the victim of a witch-hunt by the team of the former chancellor.”

He goes on to say that “we’ve successfully toppled” the former chancellor “by confiscating the mobile phone” of a friend of the then chancellor, who, according to Marsalek, was managing his “secret campaign financing.”

Marsalek then shared a link to an article about the corruption allegations against Kurz and the phone which had been seized from one of the leader’s closest associates, Thomas Schmid, a former senior official in Austria’s Finance Ministry.

Schmid’s phone had been seized in November 2019. The extensive communications recovered from the device subsequently became important evidence in several corruption investigations.

In October 2021, prosecutors carried out raids involving Kurz’s government and his political party, the ÖVP, over allegations concerning the misuse of public money for politically favorable opinion polls and media coverage. 

Pressure from the investigation led to Kurz announcing that he was stepping down. Two weeks later, Marsalek wrote to Roussev that it was “quite a messy story”.

Later in the conversation, he referred again to the political consequences of the information recovered from the phone, saying: “And the rest of the chats ‘killed’ the chancellor.”

The documents contain no independent evidence that Marsalek actually organized the seizure of the phone.

Russian ties

Marsalek’s links to Austria’s former domestic intelligence service, the BVT, have been investigated extensively and a number of senior spies and police officers are accused of handing him information for use by the Russian state.

The messages between Marsalek and Roussev are contained in Austrian police files investigating “support for a foreign intelligence service – interference in Austrian politics.” The documents also refer to possible offenses relating to elections, breaches of official duties and corruption.

An assessment of the messages by investigators notes that “Marsalek stated unequivocally that ‘they’ had ‘toppled’ the chancellor in a successful operation.”

“Marsalek thus admitted to Roussev that he had been involved in the confiscation of this mobile phone,” the report continues

The investigators therefore interpreted the conversation as Marsalek claiming involvement in the seizure of a phone that had contributed to the chancellor’s downfall.

The same assessment notes that it remained unclear whether Marsalek’s reference to “the guy” who had worked “for us” meant Wirecard or a Russian intelligence service.

Kurz declined to comment on the messages or the investigators’ assessment.

At the time the messages were sent, Marsalek was living in Moscow and carrying out work primarily for Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB), British prosecutors have said.  

Roussev was one of a number of Bulgarians arrested in the UK on suspicion of spying on behalf of Russia. They were later convicted and Roussev was jailed for ten years and eight months.

The group organized surveillance operations targeting Kremlin opponents and investigative journalists and discussed kidnapping as well as planning disinformation campaigns.

The network also had access to sensitive Austrian government information. In May 2025, The Telegraph revealed that three mobile phones belonging to senior Austrian Interior Ministry officials had ended up in Russia.

These were different phones from Thomas Schmid’s device, which Austrian investigators seized in November 2019. No connection between the two incidents has been established.

Kurz’s downfall

The reference to a confiscated phone concerns one of the most important pieces of evidence in Austrian political corruption investigations of recent years.

Schmid was a senior figure in the Finance Ministry and a close associate of Sebastian Kurz. He later became head of the state-owned holding company ÖBAG.

His mobile phone was seized by Austrian investigators on November 12, 2019, and police recovered extensive communications, including messages that had previously been deleted.

Those messages later became part of several corruption investigations concerning political appointments, government advertising and allegations about the use of public money for party-political purposes.

On October 6, 2021, Austrian prosecutors searched the Federal Chancellery, the Finance Ministry and the headquarters of Kurz’s Austrian People’s Party.

The searches were part of an investigation into allegations that taxpayer money had been used to finance politically favorable opinion polls and media coverage.

The investigations led to Kurz announcing his resignation as chancellor on October 9, 2021.

Marsalek’s message to Roussev was written 13 days later, nearly two years after Schmid’s telephone was seized.

By then, details of the case including reports about thousands of intimate photographs on Schmid’s phone, which Marsalek joked about, had already appeared in the local press.

Marsalek has been out of reach of European authorities for years, and the Global Reporters Network was also unable to contact him for comment.

“The Russian secret services like causing havoc and chaos and disruption,” Ed Arnold, senior associate fellow at Royal United Services Institute think tank, told the Global Reporters Network. “But even if they don’t cause it, they are more than happy to exploit it and make political disagreements or fissures worse.”

He said Marsalek might have been “overplaying his hand” by emphasizing his role in the downfall of Kurz, adding: “If you want to make a name for yourself in this world as some kind of fixer, you need some kudos.” 

“Russia wants to destabilize our free democracies,” Manfred Weber, the German leader of the EPP in the European Parliament, told POLITICO. “It must be unequivocally ruled out that Russian intelligence services can interfere in democratic and judicial processes … These events must be thoroughly investigated.”

A spokesperson for the Federal Ministry of the Interior said that they could not comment on ongoing investigations into Marsalek’s network. 

The spokesperson told the Global Reporters Network that the “Austrian Criminal Intelligence Service does not provide information or comment on ongoing investigations or proceedings, nor does it disclose information concerning specific individuals”. 

The Axel Springer Global Reporters Network harnesses the resources of the company’s newsrooms to publish ambitious scoops, investigations, interviews, opinion pieces and analysis. It allows journalists — including those from POLITICO, Business Insider, WELT, BILD, Onet, The Telegraph, and Fakt — to collaborate on major stories for an international audience of hundreds of millions across platforms: online, print, TV and audio.

PARIS — A group of European ambassadors posted in Paris questioned Marine Le Pen about her plans for France and the EU over a lunch on Wednesday, four officials with direct knowledge of the meeting told POLITICO.

The lunch at the lavish neoclassical Hôtel de Beauharnais — once home to Napoleon’s stepson, and now the residence of the German ambassador in the capital — mainly covered Le Pen’s future EU agenda, officials said.

Le Pen, who is comfortably leading the polls in the 2027 election race, has pledged to fight in Brussels to downsize EU institutions, turn the European Commission into a secretariat that would no longer have any competence on foreign policy, internal security or health, and to drastically cut France’s contribution to the EU budget.  

The group of ambassadors from the eight countries that share a border with metropolitan France —  Germany, Spain, Belgium, Italy, Luxembourg, Switzerland, Monaco and Andorra —  already met with conservative presidential candidate Bruno Retailleau in September. They are planning to host meetings with the other presidential hopefuls, including far-left candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon, at their respective embassies in the coming months. 

“I don’t know if it reassured or worried them,” said an adviser to Marine Le Pen who accompanied her to the lunch. “What is sure is that they can now report back to their capitals what the National Rally wants to do,” the adviser added. 

Le Pen was mainly questioned about her plans to downsize the EU and on bilateral issues, as well as U.S. President Donald Trump after his seismic defeat in the midterm elections.

While in the past, the National Rally has been supportive of Trump, the party has progressively distanced itself from the U.S. president. The National Rally’s Jordan Bardella on Wednesday said his party was not affected by the result and suggested that Trump’s popularity was undermined by the war in the Middle East and its economic consequences.

Le Pen has also been campaigning for a harsher approach on migration, which would involve stricter checks at the borders, potentially impacting countries whose envoys she met on Wednesday. All of them, apart from Andorra and Monaco, are part of the Schengen free-movement area. 

“There is a general interest on what would her stance be on the key issues of mutual interest and cooperation on which we are working with France,” said one diplomat from a participating country.

“It was a very frank exchange. She told them what she says everywhere and she was able to elaborate on a number of topics a little more at length than she would do on TV,” the same adviser said, adding that Le Pen regularly meets ambassadors.

Back in December, Le Pen and her No. 2 Jordan Bardella also met with U.S. ambassador Charles Kushner. The far-right leaders are also preparing the ground for a possible election win by meeting top French business executives.

Le Pen’s team announced Friday evening that she will meet with the Ukrainian ambassador to France, Vadym Omelchenko, in Paris on Monday, Nov. 16.

Marcelo Wesfreid and Nicolas Camut contributed to this report. 

This article was updated.

PARIS — Far-left presidential hopeful Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s party set out leaving NATO and nationalizing defense companies in its official platform released Friday.

“Immediately withdraw from NATO’s integrated command and then, in stages, from the organization itself. Reject the tribute demanded by the United States of 5% of GDP devoted to defense spending,” read France Unbowed’s 222-page program.

However, France under Mélenchon would still provide assistance to European Union countries under EU treaties, the document added, echoing what the far-left leader previously told POLITICO.

An increasing number of polls place Mélenchon in second place in next year’s high-stakes election to replace President Emmanuel Macron. The top two vote-getters go on to a second round, which could see Mélenchon facing off against far-right leader Marine Le Pen, who also pledges to take France out of NATO’s integrated command.

Unlike Le Pen’s far-right party, France Unbowed does not explicitly say it would stop providing assistance to Ukraine — but it does insist on the need for a diplomatic solution. Any peace agreement would need to lean on “collective security guarantees, between the belligerents and with the rest of Europe.”

France Unbowed wants more arms regulation, including of lethal autonomous weapons systems and nuclear weapons.

The far-left party is also pushing back against the “space arms race,” including by pledging to close NATO’s space center in Toulouse, but says France should have the means to guarantee its sovereignty. Unlike most other political parties, France Unbowed has strong interest in space policy, and argues in its presidential platform that France should acquire a space shuttle.

France Unbowed lawmakers have previously pushed for France to procure Dassault Aviation’s Vortex, a European reusable orbital spaceplane program spearheaded by the French aerospace manufacturer.

Overall, France should invest more in so-called critical enablers, meaning military equipment in areas such as communications, intelligence and logistics that are currently mostly provided by the U.S. via NATO. “They must be produced as a matter of priority,” the party wrote.

It also wants to nationalize some of the country’s main defense companies including ArianeGroup.

A more detailed platform specifically on defense will be released later, a France Unbowed lawmaker told POLITICO.

LONDON — Donald Trump is badly bruised after this week’s U.S. midterm elections trouncing — but Britain’s diplomatic corps needs to avoid looking like it’s going all-in on the jubilant Democrats.

That’s the advice of Ed Roman, the former director of communications at the British Embassy in Washington. He spent five years on the embassy’s senior leadership team, serving during the Biden and second Trump administrations. It gave him a front row seat as diplomats adjusted to a radical change in U.S. political direction — a task they now face again.

In his first podcast interview since leaving the civil service a month ago, Roman tells POLITICO’s Westminster Insider that British diplomats need to show they can cultivate sophisticated ties with Trump’s possible successors — without provoking the ire of the current White House incumbent. Here are his top tips.

1) Don’t be late to the party

“If you’re doing it now, you’re kind of too late,” Roman says of efforts to schmooze key Democrats who have made it into both the Senate and House this week. The British Embassy has, he says, already been doing its homework, tracking potential Democratic Party contenders throughout the year in anticipation of a wave.

But there’s stiff global competition to build those links first. “The French competitors, the German competitors, the Korean competitors — each embassy is trying to build a network that allows them a level of access,” he says.

In addition to the embassy in D.C., Britain uses its eight U.S. consulates — strategically placed across the country — to help it identify rising politicians outside Washington.

As Roman puts it: “Real politics in America happens in America, out in the states, out in the districts. Knowing those Senate hopefuls ahead of time is always the name of the game.”

2) Don’t put all your eggs in one basket

Roman worked under former British Ambassador Karen Pierce, whose team invested considerable effort in cultivating relationships with Trump’s circle during the Biden administration.

Roman believes that work paid “dividends” for Britain in the years that followed, including in landing a U.K.-U.S. trade deal as Trump slapped tariffs on a host of allies.

But he cautions that the next president might not seem as obvious as Trump — who has had an iron grip on his party for years — did back then. “It’s a complete surprise that you always need to watch [out] for,” Roman notes.

It’s vital to build diplomatic relationships with a broad field — including other presidential hopefuls and figures who might end up in a future Cabinet, White House or national security team.

“Yes, you’re looking to identify the front runner, but you’re also looking to get to know the people around them. And very often they’re the people that are useful to you as an embassy,” he says.

3) Hold your ground — but don’t show off

It’s important not to provoke Trump’s ire by making him feel British diplomacy is already moving on. But Roman argues that embassies must also be prepared to defend their right to engage opposition politicians.

“This is perfectly legitimate business, there’s nothing nefarious about this,” he says.

He points to Trump officials openly engaging with British politicians across party lines.

“That is legitimate diplomatic business and there’s a bit of pushback that you sometimes have to do with administrations to be upfront about that,” he says.

There is, however, a big difference between quietly cultivating a future president and publicly advertising the fact.

Roman warns against the temptation to “grandstand a little bit that you’ve just had this brilliant session with [Gavin] Newsom [the Democratic governor of California] or whoever” on social media after meeting a potential successor. “That stuff does irritate the presidency,” he adds.

“Doing it in a discreet way, focusing on the interpersonal rather than the comms bounce that you might get out of it back in London is really key,” he advises.

4) Always big up Britain 

Simply getting a meeting with a rising Democrat isn’t enough. British diplomats need to convince prospective presidents that a strong relationship with Britain will actually be useful to them.

He warns that the next generation of American leaders may have fewer historic connections to Britain, meaning the U.K. cannot assume its traditional “special relationship” status will automatically open doors.

“For each generation politically, you’ve always got to, in effect, restate your offer,” he says.

Roman tells the podcast: “You can’t just tip up and say, you know: Hi, I’m John or James or Karen from the British Embassy, let’s have a chat.

“You’ve really got to dig into what their campaign is about, how are we useful to them? What do they understand about Britain? What do they know about Britain? What is Britain’s offer to them if they are successful and they come into power?”

5) Never assume a return to “normal”

Even if Democrats win the White House in 2028, Roman cautions British diplomats not to assume cultivating ties will automatically produce an easier relationship than it has with Trump.

Each country has its own blunt interests, and Roman recalls that the Biden administration was not an uncomplicated partner for Britain.

“There’s a bit of amnesia going on in the sense that the Biden administration were very challenging to deal with,” he says. “They were not particularly sentimental about Britain.”

And he argues that this week’s midterm results should not be mistaken for a wholesale rejection of Trump’s “America First” worldview.

“It wasn’t an embrace of America as a global policeman,” he says. “It wasn’t an embrace of America’s traditional role presiding over the rules-based international order.”

Economic nationalism and skepticism about America’s global responsibilities could survive Trump, Roman believes — including under a Democratic successor. “We would be, I think, ill-advised to draw the conclusion that any form of normalcy will return,” he says.

Ed Roman was speaking to the Westminster Insider podcast. Listen here.