BRUSSELS — You know that customer-service bot that won’t let you cancel your subscription? The EU wants to kill it.  

With a new law presented Wednesday, the European Commission will take aim at the endless array of practices websites have used over the past 20 years to make more money from consumers.  

The Digital Fairness Act is the European response to a wider regulatory trend that has seen consumer authorities curb irksome and exploitative practices. These include dynamic pricing that changes ticket prices based on demand, cumbersome processes for canceling subscriptions and the near-complete surrender of customer service to automated systems.  

According to a draft of the DFA obtained by POLITICO, the Commission will address several aspects of the design, service and terms under which businesses interact with consumers online. 

“Europe should not accept a digital economy where profits depend on exploiting people’s vulnerabilities,” Spanish socialist lawmaker Laura Ballarín Cereza, a key European lawmaker on tech legislation, said in a statement.

Industry leaders have pushed back on this potential new rulebook ever since the EU executive began considering a revision of consumer law in 2022. They say current consumer protection and digital services laws already cover these practices. “Where existing rules already cover a practice, it should not be regulated or enforced a second time,” said Ben Brake, director general of tech lobby DOT Europe.  

Consumer groups say existing rules, some dating back to 2005, are not clear enough and that many unfair design practices are still rampant.  

The Commission would have the power to impose fines of up to 6% of global annual revenue for companies that violate the new law. Those penalties are similar to fines levied under the Digital Services Act, the EU’s platform rules meant to stop Big Tech platforms from provoking systemic, society-wide harms through everything from election interference to keeping minors away from violent content. The new law instead would apply to any business offering services to EU consumers online. 

Dark patterns

The DFA would ban deceptive design known as “dark patterns,” which manipulate consumers through the use of such tactics as bright-colored buttons placed prominently to get customers to buy something. It also aims to ban personalized pricing that targets vulnerable consumers, including minors.  

The practice of dynamic pricing is also targeted in the law. That’s when a seller adjusts the price based on conditions such as demand or a user’s location, and it is commonly used in the sale of concert and airline tickets. The proposed law requires transparency when customers are buying products whose prices are subject to change.  

The DFA also covers consumer rights around “agentic commerce,” when artificial intelligence agents are used to find and complete purchases. 

Four lawmakers from the conservative, socialist and liberal groups said the requirement doesn’t go far enough and that the DFA should completely ban dynamic pricing for cultural and sporting events, according to a letter obtained by POLITICO. 

Sellers offering subscriptions will have to provide an easy way to cancel, reminiscent of New York State’s “click to cancel” rules. The new EU rules also require that a human is available for after-sales customer support.  

The rules also address, for the first time, specific aspects of online gaming, including bans on video games that allow kids to pay to succeed and progress in the game.  

The DFA is also trying to make its mark on what is known as “addictive design” of online platforms. This has already been the target of enforcement action in Europe and litigation in the U.S. in cases involving minors. But the new consumer rules would apply to adults as well, requiring online platforms to offer an opt-out from addictive features like autoplay.  

Spain’s Ballarín Cereza thinks this is not enough, saying users should be opted out of these features by default. “Why should consumers carry the burden when companies deliberately design these addictive mechanisms? We must shift from consumer responsibility to corporate responsibility: safety and fairness must be the default, not an option,” she said. 

LONDON — The U.S. has evacuated refueling aircraft from an RAF base in Britain after registering an alleged threat from Iran.

At least 10 U.S. planes left RAF Mildenhall in Suffolk on Monday, according to the BBC, and landed at other American bases in Europe and at Prestwick Airport in Scotland.

The operation was first reported by the Wall Street Journal and confirmed by two U.K. officials briefed on the matter.

A Ministry of Defence spokesperson said: “We do not routinely comment on the activity of other nations. Aircraft and other assets move regularly ​according to operational ​requirements.”

It comes weeks after an Iran-linked security incident at RAF Fairford, which saw the U.S. pull its bombers out of the base and return them to America.

A major incident was declared after three suspicious vans were seen near Fairford, which led to eight arrests. Two British nationals appeared in court in October in connection with an alleged plot connected to Iran.

U.K. Prime Minister Andy Burnham’s spokesman said: “The U.S. is one of our top security partners. We’re in constant communication with them, sharing intelligence and accessing threats together. Aircraft and other assets move regularly according to operational requirements… The protection of our bases, both in the U.K. and across the world, is a top priority.”

Conservative Party Leader Kemi Badenoch said on Tuesday that the latest U.S. withdrawal of assets is “very concerning, and our government’s got absolutely nothing to say about it.”

Head of the MI5 intelligence service Ken McCallum said last month that threats from foreign adversaries against the U.K. had quadrupled in the last decade, including an increase in Iran-sponsored aggression against Jewish sites and military bases.

This story was updated to include a comment from the U.K. prime minister’s spokesperson.

BRUSSELS — Royalty descended on the European Parliament on Tuesday as Prince Harry slammed Big Tech for creating a world of “chaos.”

“A handful of very powerful people … would like to see the world as a social media world: lawless, no consequence, complete chaos, division,” the Duke of Sussex said at an event on online safety for children.

Speaking in a room packed to the brim with journalists and photographers, Harry called for stricter rules on social media platforms to protect kids from content that could lead to suicide or self-harm.

He expressed reservations about the privacy policies of social media platforms, which he said bar parents from knowing how their children died. “That cannot be right,” a visibly upset Harry said.

His wife, Meghan Markle, was present but withdrew from an address on Tuesday’s panel.

The European Commission regulates online platforms through its Digital Services Act and is planning a special regime for minors under the Kids Act.

The burden of proof that platforms are safe should be on the companies rather than on parents, and “the EU Kids Act is exactly that,” said the prince, praising an EU proposal that would bar access to social media for under-13s.

The couple brought an air of celebrity to the Parliament, with heightened security and a clamoring press pack, including many journalists from the U.K. Dozens of parliament employees and lobbyists gathered outside the room, phones in hand, to catch a glimpse of the pair.

Meanwhile, the internal market committee, which is leading negotiations for the Parliament on the Kids Act, was meeting in a far less crowded room. MEPs from the committee — including Hungarian conservative Dóra Dávid and Slovak liberal Veronika Cifrová Ostrihoňová — attended the royal event.

Cancer claims 10 million lives each year, the global shortage of health workers runs into the millions, and in some parts of the world, a single mosquito bite can be fatal.

These challenges may seem very different. Yet they share a common element in how many health systems operate: risk is often recognised only after it has become illness, outbreak or crisis. By then, a disease may have advanced, transmission of disease may be under way, or an already stretched workforce may be managing consequences that earlier action could have reduced.

The opportunity is to move that point of intervention earlier. This is what anticipatory health means in practice: using signals that already exist, at the bedside, in communities, and in routine health data, to help people and health systems act sooner. It is not prediction for its own sake. The value lies in connecting early and everyday signals to a timely, practical response.

Finding practical routes to earlier action

That principle sits at the heart of the Future Health Impact Challenge: Building Anticipatory Health Systems through Population Sensing, launched by Future Health – A Global Initiative by Abu Dhabi in collaboration with MIT Solve. The Challenge received 393 submissions from 68 countries. ThinkMD, VectorCam and Huna emerged as its three award-winning solutions: ThinkMD received the grand prize, with VectorCam and Huna recognised as distinguished finalists.

The Challenge was designed to identify practical solutions with evidence of impact and potential to scale. Each of the three selected teams demonstrated their approach to using technology to turn an early signal into decisions that support anticipatory actions a health system can take.

Frontline care as a population signal

ThinkMD starts with the interaction between a frontline health worker and a patient. Its offline mobile platform guides structured assessments aligned with clinical protocols, supporting providers where doctors, connectivity, and diagnostic tools may be scarce. Almost 10,000 frontline health workers across 885 facilities are now using it.

Each consultation also creates structured data. Across facilities, that information can reveal changes in symptoms and service demand. In Zambia, analysis of around one million encounters identified symptom patterns several months before a confirmed cholera outbreak. In Kenya, deployment data showed improvements in identifying danger signs in infants and prescribing antibiotics correctly for childhood pneumonia.

It is not prediction for its own sake.

“The utilisation of AI in healthcare is an absolute game changer. Not only can we increase access for patients, but we can also increase access to information to make correct and appropriate diagnoses and give the right treatment to the right patient at the right time. Future Health has been a really critical platform to be able to accelerate our mission of moving from reactionary to anticipatory care,” said Dr Jackie Rabec of ThinkMD.

The award has given ThinkMD support and visibility as it works to expand into new health systems and strengthen how frontline data becomes timely intelligence for decision-makers. That is one measure of the Challenge’s impact: helping proven solutions move towards sustained, wider adoption.

Earlier signals from the environment and routine data

VectorCam begins with the environment around a community. Using a low-cost smartphone imaging device and offline AI, community health workers can photograph and identify mosquitoes in the field. Each observation generates time- and location-based data that can help authorities see changing vector risk as the first signal of disease patterns, before a spread in local communities and populations.

The value lies in connecting early and everyday signals to a timely, practical response.

Field evaluations show data completeness rising from approximately 60% to more than 90%. With support from the Future Health Impact Challenge, VectorCam aims to strengthen its early-warning capability, integrate additional data sources and expand into national surveillance programmes.

Huna looks for earlier cancer-risk signals in information that health systems already generate. Its platform analyses routine complete blood count data to identify people with an elevated risk and prioritises them for screening. It does not diagnose cancer from a blood test; it helps direct limited screening capacity, and supports patients and healthcare professionals through the next steps.

In Brazil, Huna’s deployments have screened more than 500,000 people and detected hundreds of cancer cases. Its experience also highlights a critical ‘last mile’: identifying risk is not enough if a person does not complete the diagnostic pathway. Recognition and funding from the Challenge could help support further validation across new populations and facilitate new international partnerships.

Innovation is only the starting point

Together, these solutions show that useful signals can come from a variety of sources – including clinical encounters, environmental surveillance, and routine diagnostics. They also show that anticipatory approaches can be built where connectivity, specialist capacity, or access to screening is limited, and that innovation developed in those settings can share insights that can be localised and adopted globally.

But a successful technology or pilot is not the same as system-wide impact. Scaling requires local validation, integrated into existing workflows, responsible data governance, sustainable financing, workforce training, and evidence that earlier insight changes decisions and outcomes.

A successful technology or pilot is not the same as system-wide impact.

“The solutions emerging from this Challenge reflect both the urgency and the opportunity facing health systems globally. By bringing innovators together with policymakers, funders and implementers through platforms such as Future Health, we can help accelerate solutions that are locally grounded and capable of delivering impact at scale,” said Hala Hanna, Executive Director of MIT Solve.

From recognition to system-level impact

The Future Health Impact Challenge is part of Future Health’s wider role as a year-round platform for action. Together with our partners and colleagues across diverse sectors and geographies, Future Health identifies promising solutions, supports their development, builds international connections and brings together the policy, clinical, research and investment expertise needed to move from proof to concept to measurable impact.

The Future Health impact documentary film is now available to watch, and shares personal commentary from the founders of the three companies, local stories of the solutions in action, and commentary from the Challenge owners and collaborator.

Watch the full Future Health Impact Challenge Film here.

A reliable water supply, electricity when we need it and a home protected from flooding. These are the foundations of everyday life. When the infrastructure behind them fails, households bear the consequences.

As leaders gather for COP31, global progress on climate action means protecting those essential services must be central to the discussion. Investing in resilience is a national and economic security priority, and the decisions we make now will shape how well our homes, communities and essential services withstand disruption for decades to come.

Recent UK government advice urges households to ‘Be Ready’ and prepare for disruptions. It is a practical reminder of how much daily life depends on infrastructure we rarely notice until it stops working. Following the UK’s hottest summer on record, and with El Niño expected to strengthen into a very strong event, the need to prepare is clear.

The costs are already substantial. In the UK, we are particularly susceptible to flooding, and this year proved that we are not immune to heatwaves and drought. Flooding costs the UK an estimated £2.3 billion annually,¹ while the five heatwaves between May and July 2026 were estimated to have caused more than £4.4 billion in lost productivity.² For households, the consequences can include damage to their homes and disruption to work and daily life. Investing in resilience can reduce that disruption, protect essential services and support Britain’s long-term prosperity.

Flooding costs the UK an estimated £2.3 billion annually, while the five heatwaves between May and July 2026 were estimated to have caused more than £4.4 billion in lost productivity

For Lloyds Banking Group, serving households and businesses across Britain, this connects the infrastructure we help finance with the services our customers rely on. Progress will depend on filling the £11 billion annual gap in UK adaptation investment identified by the UK Climate Change Committee, with the government, infrastructure owners and financial institutions each having a role in turning that shared interest into practical investment.

The Haweswater Aqueduct Resilience Programme illustrates how long-term finance can support that goal, with replacement infrastructure designed to last for over 100 years.

The approximately £3 billion program is replacing six tunnel sections of an aqueduct that supplies drinking water to around 2.5 million people across Cumbria, Lancashire and Greater Manchester. A £300 million National Wealth Fund credit-enhancement facility, backed by a HM Treasury guarantee, helped reduce financing risk and attract private investment. Scottish Widows is supporting the program as a senior lender, with Lloyds providing banking services. Most importantly, households will benefit from a continued, reliable water supply for generations to come.

Public support and private finance can work together to fund essential infrastructure, with clear responsibilities for delivery and benefits for the communities it serves. Investment elsewhere should start with where disruption is most likely, how businesses can prepare and what protection suits local needs. The priority is fewer interruptions to daily life and the essential services communities rely on.

Insurance has an important role in making resilience investment work for households as well as businesses. Insurers’ understanding of physical climate risks can help owners, lenders and investors assess where protection is needed and the value of reducing exposure. Working with the government, the industry can explore how investment in prevention and longer-term approaches to risk can help sustain access to cover. The aim should be to reduce both the damage people experience and the financial strain that follows rather than relying on insurance alone after an event.

Businesses need to adopt commercially pragmatic mindsets that answer honestly how their assets and operations are designed for climate conditions that are already disrupting how we live and operate. Those answers carry real financial consequences: insurance costs and availability, access to capital, asset valuations, financing terms, and long-term competitiveness. Preparedness is the difference between an organization’s short-term viability and long-term prosperity.

Better data can help lenders, investors and insurers understand where infrastructure is exposed and assess the value of measures to protect it. Climate risk varies from place to place, so investment decisions need to reflect local conditions. The task is to make that understanding a routine part of financing, valuation and insurance decisions by directing investment toward the resilience needs of communities instead of waiting for disruption to reveal them.

Businesses need to adopt commercially pragmatic mindsets that answer honestly how their assets and operations are designed for climate conditions that are already disrupting how we live and operate

Finally, the public and private sectors must finance nature-based and engineered solutions together, because truly resilient infrastructure depends on both. Nature is one of our greatest assets: nature-based solutions such as wetland restoration can help protect communities from extreme weather, lower long-term costs, and generate wider economic, environmental and social value. When we look beyond individual megaprojects and take a holistic approach that includes the natural world, we can most effectively protect the critical functions of society, nature and economy alike.

The UK has deep expertize in finance and insurance. The challenge is to turn that expertize into more reliable services for households and more resilient places to live and work.

The government can provide clear frameworks that support long-term investment. Infrastructure owners should plan for future climate conditions. Lenders, investors and insurers should use their understanding of physical risks to inform where and how capital is deployed.

COP31 is an opportunity to focus attention on that task. The priority is investment that helps keep water running, power available and homes better protected from flooding. 

---

References

¹ https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/estimating-potential-economic-costs-of-flooding/estimating-potential-economic-costs-of-flooding#calculating-potential-economic-costs-aad-of-flooding

² Verdant (2006), The Cost of Heat Summer 2026 Heatwave: an economic update

PARIS — EU diplomatic chief Kaja Kallas has another enemy who wants her out: Marine Le Pen. 

The far-right French leader wants to dismantle, or at the very least drastically reduce, the EU’s diplomatic arm if she wins the 2027 presidential election, according to four National Rally officials. 

“The reality is that [Kallas’s] usefulness is very limited, and she duplicates the diplomacy of member states,” said Charles-Henri Gallois, adviser to National Rally President Jordan Bardella. “No one recognizes her legitimacy, particularly not the United States, nor China.”

The comments reveal growing tensions over the EU’s power as nationalist parties from France to Germany and Poland seek to wrest power back from Brussels, with foreign policy among their top targets. They also put extra pressure on Kallas and the European External Action Service, which has been locked in a protracted turf war on foreign policy with the European Commission headed by Ursula von der Leyen.

The view inside the National Rally is that the EU’s diplomatic service is not only a waste of taxpayer money but also gets in the way of European nations being able to flex their muscles on the world stage. 

One example is Ukraine, on which Kallas and Le Pen are deeply divided — although they have not clashed publicly. The former Estonian prime minister is one of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s fiercest critics and a staunch supporter of Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy, while Le Pen is pushing for an international peace conference to settle the conflict and says Europe has run out of money to give to Kyiv. 

Kallas has “used very warrior-like language on Ukraine,” said National Rally MEP Jean-Paul Garraud. “We support Ukraine but if we expressed ourselves like that we would be in total war” with Russia, he said.  

Le Pen has directed her most vicious attacks against von der Leyen, who has long been accused by the far right of exceeding her powers. But it’s Kallas and the EEAS that risk becoming collateral damage under a far-right presidency in France.

Le Pen is the front-runner ahead of next year’s presidential election. In a recent visit to Brussels, she vowed to downsize the European Union if she comes to power. 

“France will no longer accept that the Commission exercises diplomatic competences, and even less military or intelligence competencies,” she told reporters. This shrinking of EU institutions would include snipping the wings of the EEAS, according to the four National Rally officials, who were granted anonymity to speak freely.

The move would put the National Rally on a collision course with pro-European parties, which see the EU’s diplomatic arm as an essential tool as the global stage becomes more competitive and more aggressive. 

“If Marine Le Pen becomes president of France, she will quickly realise that … France is a medium-sized country on the global stage,” said Irish Renew MEP Barry Andrews, who chairs the European Parliament’s development committee.

 “Without the collective power of Europe, France has no chance going up against the U.S. or China alone,” he said.

The EEAS snapped back at the criticism. “Across Europe, the far right is against the very idea of European cooperation,” said an EEAS spokesperson. 

“EU diplomacy defends European interests, including those of France. The EU’s global delegation network is a major strategic asset,” the official told POLITICO in response to Le Pen’s comments.

Money matters

The push against Kallas and her diplomats also comes as the National Rally limbers up for a fight with the Commission over France’s EU budget contribution, if they win the election. Last month, the National Rally unveiled its plans for a €11 billion cut to France’s EU contribution for 2027, which is currently expected to total approximately €30 billion. 

POLITICO’s Poll of Polls puts Le Pen on 34% in the first round, well ahead of far-left leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon on 17% and center-right hopeful Edouard Philippe on 16%. Polls also suggest she would beat most of her potential rivals in a runoff.

While France could not unilaterally cut the EEAS’s budget, the National Rally says it sees allies in Italy, in Spain’s nationalist party Vox (which could end up working with the center-right after this month’s election), and in Andrej Babiš’s Czech Republic. 

The offensive could get nasty as the Commission and Le Pen arm-wrestle over money. 

“The EEAS is great for friends of friends, who want jobs,” said one National Rally official. “The real estate bought or rented by the EEAS is a waste of money. I’m shocked to see the amounts involved in local contracts; it’s unbelievable,” said a National Rally MEP. 

Le Pen’s criticism coincides with criticism from European governments about the efficiency of the EU’s foreign policy apparatus, with France and Germany jointly pitching plans to reform the EEAS.

The concerns voiced by senior diplomats in both countries focus on the fact that the EEAS lacks policy tools to influence foreign relations. The Franco-German initiative suggests integrating the EEAS with the Commission, which has a larger budget as well as control over trade and tech policies.

It also coincides with proposals to severely cut back on the EU’s foreign policy budget. Commission officials have internally simulated slashing the bloc’s Global Europe budget — worth €200 billion in the last long-term budget — by as much as 40% in the next budget.

The EEAS itself, which has an annual budget of close to €1 billion and employs more than 5,200 people globally, is working on internal reforms that Secretary-General Kajsa Ollongren is expected to present to staff later this month.

Major budget cuts would have the effect of gutting the EU’s network of more than 100 global delegations, which are staffed by diplomats as well as Commission personnel from external-facing units like DG MENA (the Directorate-General for the Middle East, North Africa and the Gulf).

International organizations have pushed back forcefully against plans to slash the EU’s development aid budget, with United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres writing to the heads of the Commission and Council and urging them to preserve the funding.

Giorgio Leali contributed reporting.

Jan Marsalek, the fugitive former Wirecard executive suspected by multiple countries of spying for Russia, claimed that he had helped to bring down Austrian Chancellor Sebastian Kurz, according to documents obtained by the Axel Springer Global Reporters Network, of which POLITICO is a part. 

Marsalek said he had been involved in an operation that had “successfully toppled” Kurz, who stepped down amid corruption allegations in 2021. 

The messages, detailed in investigation files seen by the Telegraph and the Global Reporters Network, were sent to Orlin Roussev, a spy-ring leader who received instructions from Marsalek and has since been jailed in Britain for espionage. The documents contain no independent evidence of the role Marsalek says he has played in Kurz’s downfall. 

If substantiated, Marsalek’s claims would be a clear indicator of the Russian state interfering directly in the political leadership of an EU country. The Kremlin has long sought to sow division and destabilize governments across Europe, according to assessments by multiple security agencies. 

Marsalek is one of the world’s most wanted men and has been on the run since June 2020 when his company, German tech giant Wirecard, collapsed with a €1.9 billion hole in its books.

Since his escape, he has been accused of working for the Kremlin for more than a decade while British police say he is involved in espionage on an “industrial” scale. He is wanted for fraud and is being investigated for spying in several European countries, including his native Austria.

Kurz was the world’s youngest leader when he first became chancellor of Austria in 2017 at the age of 31. But his stratospheric rise, which saw him hold the post twice, was marred by corruption allegations, including that public money was used for political advertising on his behalf. 

When members of Marsalek’s spy ring, led by Roussev, were arrested in the U.K., police seized hundreds of thousands of messages detailing operations plotted from British soil.

Some of these messages were shared with authorities, including Austrian officials, who are currently investigating whether their spies provided information to Marsalek and, in turn, to Russia.

‘Messy story’

One of the investigative files, examined by the Global Reporters Network, contains messages sent by a man whom authorities have identified as Marsalek, using the alias “Rupert Ticz,” on October 22, 2021.

Marsalek mentions a “guy” who “was actually working for us for a while,” adding: “now he’s the victim of a witch-hunt by the team of the former chancellor.”

He goes on to say that “we’ve successfully toppled” the former chancellor “by confiscating the mobile phone” of a friend of the then chancellor, who, according to Marsalek, was managing his “secret campaign financing.”

Marsalek then shared a link to an article about the corruption allegations against Kurz and the phone which had been seized from one of the leader’s closest associates, Thomas Schmid, a former senior official in Austria’s Finance Ministry.

Schmid’s phone had been seized in November 2019. The extensive communications recovered from the device subsequently became important evidence in several corruption investigations.

In October 2021, prosecutors carried out raids involving Kurz’s government and his political party, the ÖVP, over allegations concerning the misuse of public money for politically favorable opinion polls and media coverage. 

Pressure from the investigation led to Kurz announcing that he was stepping down. Two weeks later, Marsalek wrote to Roussev that it was “quite a messy story”.

Later in the conversation, he referred again to the political consequences of the information recovered from the phone, saying: “And the rest of the chats ‘killed’ the chancellor.”

The documents contain no independent evidence that Marsalek actually organized the seizure of the phone.

Russian ties

Marsalek’s links to Austria’s former domestic intelligence service, the BVT, have been investigated extensively and a number of senior spies and police officers are accused of handing him information for use by the Russian state.

The messages between Marsalek and Roussev are contained in Austrian police files investigating “support for a foreign intelligence service – interference in Austrian politics.” The documents also refer to possible offenses relating to elections, breaches of official duties and corruption.

An assessment of the messages by investigators notes that “Marsalek stated unequivocally that ‘they’ had ‘toppled’ the chancellor in a successful operation.”

“Marsalek thus admitted to Roussev that he had been involved in the confiscation of this mobile phone,” the report continues

The investigators therefore interpreted the conversation as Marsalek claiming involvement in the seizure of a phone that had contributed to the chancellor’s downfall.

The same assessment notes that it remained unclear whether Marsalek’s reference to “the guy” who had worked “for us” meant Wirecard or a Russian intelligence service.

Kurz declined to comment on the messages or the investigators’ assessment.

At the time the messages were sent, Marsalek was living in Moscow and carrying out work primarily for Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB), British prosecutors have said.  

Roussev was one of a number of Bulgarians arrested in the UK on suspicion of spying on behalf of Russia. They were later convicted and Roussev was jailed for ten years and eight months.

The group organized surveillance operations targeting Kremlin opponents and investigative journalists and discussed kidnapping as well as planning disinformation campaigns.

The network also had access to sensitive Austrian government information. In May 2025, The Telegraph revealed that three mobile phones belonging to senior Austrian Interior Ministry officials had ended up in Russia.

These were different phones from Thomas Schmid’s device, which Austrian investigators seized in November 2019. No connection between the two incidents has been established.

Kurz’s downfall

The reference to a confiscated phone concerns one of the most important pieces of evidence in Austrian political corruption investigations of recent years.

Schmid was a senior figure in the Finance Ministry and a close associate of Sebastian Kurz. He later became head of the state-owned holding company ÖBAG.

His mobile phone was seized by Austrian investigators on November 12, 2019, and police recovered extensive communications, including messages that had previously been deleted.

Those messages later became part of several corruption investigations concerning political appointments, government advertising and allegations about the use of public money for party-political purposes.

On October 6, 2021, Austrian prosecutors searched the Federal Chancellery, the Finance Ministry and the headquarters of Kurz’s Austrian People’s Party.

The searches were part of an investigation into allegations that taxpayer money had been used to finance politically favorable opinion polls and media coverage.

The investigations led to Kurz announcing his resignation as chancellor on October 9, 2021.

Marsalek’s message to Roussev was written 13 days later, nearly two years after Schmid’s telephone was seized.

By then, details of the case including reports about thousands of intimate photographs on Schmid’s phone, which Marsalek joked about, had already appeared in the local press.

Marsalek has been out of reach of European authorities for years, and the Global Reporters Network was also unable to contact him for comment.

“The Russian secret services like causing havoc and chaos and disruption,” Ed Arnold, senior associate fellow at Royal United Services Institute think tank, told the Global Reporters Network. “But even if they don’t cause it, they are more than happy to exploit it and make political disagreements or fissures worse.”

He said Marsalek might have been “overplaying his hand” by emphasizing his role in the downfall of Kurz, adding: “If you want to make a name for yourself in this world as some kind of fixer, you need some kudos.” 

“Russia wants to destabilize our free democracies,” Manfred Weber, the German leader of the EPP in the European Parliament, told POLITICO. “It must be unequivocally ruled out that Russian intelligence services can interfere in democratic and judicial processes … These events must be thoroughly investigated.”

A spokesperson for the Federal Ministry of the Interior said that they could not comment on ongoing investigations into Marsalek’s network. 

The spokesperson told the Global Reporters Network that the “Austrian Criminal Intelligence Service does not provide information or comment on ongoing investigations or proceedings, nor does it disclose information concerning specific individuals”. 

The Axel Springer Global Reporters Network harnesses the resources of the company’s newsrooms to publish ambitious scoops, investigations, interviews, opinion pieces and analysis. It allows journalists — including those from POLITICO, Business Insider, WELT, BILD, Onet, The Telegraph, and Fakt — to collaborate on major stories for an international audience of hundreds of millions across platforms: online, print, TV and audio.

BRUSSELS — The Netherlands and Spain on Friday submitted candidates to succeed Christine Lagarde, who steps down as president of the European Central Bank on Feb. 7.

Pablo Hernández de Cos, a former governor of Spain’s central bank, and the Netherlands’ Klaas Knot, a former president of the Dutch central bank, were the only candidates to emerge after the 5 p.m. deadline, as expected.

Their candidacies are part of a larger game of musical chairs that includes France and Germany, as Europe’s four economic powerhouses negotiate how to secure their seats on the ECB’s executive board.

The ECB is one of the most powerful institutions in Europe, responsible for setting interest rates to keep prices stable at 2% over the medium-term. The six-person executive board oversees the central bank’s day-to-day activities and an army of economists who scrutinize financial markets and the economy at large.

Berlin is determined to hold onto the seat that German economist Isabel Schnabel will vacate on Jan. 3, when she leaves the ECB for a job at the International Monetary Fund. Paris, meanwhile, is targeting the ECB’s chief economist role once the Irish incumbent Philip Lane concludes his eight-year term on May 31.

Eurozone finance ministers will take stock of the ECB shuffling at Monday’s Eurogroup meeting in Brussels. Neither Hernández de Cos nor Knot are scheduled to attend the closed-door meeting. But their national ministers will talk up their respective compatriots.

Diplomats expect EU leaders to engage in horse trading at an informal summit in Dublin at the end of next week. The deadline for candidates to replace Schnabel is on Nov. 27.

PARIS — French leftist presidential candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon wants a radical overhaul of EU rules that would set him on a collision course with Brussels.

The far-left leader, who has enjoyed a recent surge in the polls ahead of the 2027 election, pitched a series of measures to fundamentally rethink the EU’s agenda in his presidential platform unveiled Friday. Mélenchon also said he would disobey current EU rules that would prevent him from implementing his platform if elected.

Proposing a “new deal” for Europe, Mélenchon wants to redraft the treaties, ditch core parts of the EU’s rulebook — including debt and deficit limits — suspend competition rules for public services such as energy, transport and telecoms, and loosen state aid laws.

“We will immediately implement our program at the national level. This will therefore require a confrontation with European institutions,” according to the manifesto from Mélenchon’s France Unbowed. “This also means disobeying rules blocking [us] whenever necessary.”

“Our logic is simple. As long as a deal on changing the treaties is not done, we negotiate with our partners and disobey […] blocking rules in parallel. If we get to an agreement, it will be put to a referendum,” the manifesto added.

The proposals, which echo Mélenchon’s earlier statements, would likely face tough opposition from France’s partners in the European Council, which is currently dominated by more conservative leaders.

The manifesto also said the European Central Bank should be “placed under democratic control and mobilized to fund the ecological and social transition.” Mélenchon triggered a flurry of criticism earlier this year when he said he would “set fire” to a large chunk of France’s public debt held by the ECB, setting off a nationwide debate on the subject.

France is among the countries hardest hit by a global surge in borrowing costs, with its fiscal situation also limiting the government’s ability to soften the impact of higher fuel and food prices, part of a larger cost-of-living crisis on the continent.

With public debt amounting to 117.5% of GDP and a public deficit above 5%, fiscal issues have become a central concern for voters. Presidential candidates are pitching radically different solutions to the problem.

Le Pen has tried to rebrand herself as a responsible steward of the economy unafraid of cuts — despite critics saying her plan is “overly optimistic” and her flagship promises are yet to be funded. Centrist candidates, such as former Prime Minister Edouard Philippe, are pitching themselves as the voice of reason on economic and fiscal issues but are struggling to gain traction.

The European Commission has accused TikTok of violating its online platforms rules for having designed algorithms that lead users down so-called rabbit holes.

The preliminary findings announced Friday mark the first time the Commission has focused on a social media platform’s recommender systems as a breach of its powerful Digital Services Act, under which it can issue fines up to 6% of a company’s annual global revenue.

“This is the first time that we are really tackling head-on the engagement-based recommender system model,” said one Commission official, who was granted speaking anonymity to speak freely.

This is the fifth case of the EU executive accusing TikTok of breaching EU rules, even though it has issued no fines against the Chinese-owned platform.

In Friday’s announcement, the Commission says the company didn’t adequately consider the risk of sending users down “rabbit holes” through a “continuous stream of personalised videos, even when those are related to mental health struggles and body image.”

The investigation focused on mental health impacts because “the evidence was strongest,” when asked about how these rabbit holes contribute to radicalization, said another official.

The more users interact with content, even if it’s potentially harmful, the more of that content they are recommended, the Commission said in its press release, which noted that the measures TikTok has put in place to curb the rabbit hole effect have not been effective.

TikTok should take into account “explicit” signals like buttons that say “I’m not interested” more than implicit ones, like engagement, said the first Commission official. Engagement metrics measure how much users interact with content, such as how much time they spend watching a video or the content they like. Talking about mitigation of these risks, the official said that remedies have to be effective and that TikTok’s current measures are not.

“To say ‘I’m not interested’ has to have a meaning, an effective meaning, and not only should not only be an afterthought, and then you go back to the old recommender system,” the official said.

The DSA also foresees a non-personalized feed for all users, but only 0.2% of TikTok users actually select that option, one of the officials said.

A TikTok spokesperson pushed back against the accusation, saying the company “has a strong record” of protecting its users. “The Commission has made a series of statements that are fundamentally inaccurate and distort our platform’s architecture and our commitment to user safety,” the spokesperson said

The company now can examine the evidence, defend its practices and try to come up with a plan to remedy issues that is acceptable to the regulator to avoid fines.

TikTok has managed to close a DSA investigation on advertising transparency by agreeing on fixes with the Commission.

The article has been updated with a statement from a TikTok spokesperson.

Every VPN says it’s the best, but only some of them are telling the truth.

European Council President António Costa suggested narrowing a controversial business tax to only apply to large firms with a turnover exceeding €750 million per year, two EU diplomats briefed on the discussions told POLITICO.

Costa hopes these concessions will facilitate an overall agreement on new EU-wide levies, known as own resources, which have emerged as a major stumbling bloc in the ongoing negotiations.

The idea was mentioned in meetings, known as “confessionals,” between Costa’s head of cabinet Pedro Lourtie and EU governments Thursday, to test the waters on the most sensitive aspects in the negotiations.

Lourtie overhauled an unpopular corporate tax known as CORE — which charges a lump sum on companies’ revenues exceeding €100 million — that the European Commission proposed last year.

According to his proposal, the EU would charge a 0.05% levy, as opposed to a lump sum. It would also only apply to firms with an annual turnover of more than €750 million.

These changes are expected to soften opposition among a group of countries led by Germany that challenged CORE on the grounds that it undermines competitiveness and takes a toll on medium-sized enterprises.

Going further

But two diplomats fear these concessions will not be enough to muster support for the new levy. “I don’t think this is going to solve the problem on CORE,” one told POLITICO. They, like others in this story, were granted anonymity to discuss the sensitive negotiations.

France is pushing to introduce new taxes to reduce contributions to the EU budget.

In a concession to Paris, Costa’s team indicated that they won’t cut down on the total revenue projections from the Commission’s tax proposal from last year, which was expected to generate €65 billion annually. 

To generate additional resources for the budget, Costa’s team also suggested increasing two largely uncontroversial taxes on non-collected plastic and electronic waste that flows directly to the bloc’s budget by levying an additional 25 cents on each kilo.

The diplomats also proposed raising the share of a carbon imports’ tax that flows to the EU cash pot to 100% from the current 75%, and exploring levies on crypto firms and national spectrum auctions.

In a further concession, Lourtie suggested phasing in two taxes on tobacco products and polluting firms, known as the Emissions Trading System, for countries that are overwhelmingly affected.

Confessional diplomacy

The bilaterals, which started Thursday and will continue until next Monday, are expected to pave the way for a budget deal by the end of 2026 — before next year’s elections in Poland, France and Italy threaten to derail the negotiations.

Costa will put forward a new budget negotiating document on Nov. 21 ahead of a special summit the following week, said the two diplomats.

During Thursday’s meetings, Costa’s team signaled that the budget would be cut further, and reductions might affect regional funding known as cohesion policy.

That would be a major setback for an alliance of Southern and Eastern European countries, known as the Friends of Cohesion.

Cuts to farmers’ subsidies were deemed less likely, said the two diplomats.

PARIS — France’s National Assembly unanimously rejected the 2027 state budget bill Wednesday night, in a further sign that Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu will have a tough time getting through €43 billion in budget savings.

458 lawmakers from both Emmanuel Macron’s camp and the opposition voted against the first part of the text that deals with tax income. It had been extensively amended by various groups, resulting in a proposal no one was happy with. The second part of the text, which covers spending, was also struck down as a result. The government’s draft budget will now go directly to the Senate where it will be debated from Nov. 20.

The French lower chamber had already rejected the other leg of the 2027 budget, which covers state pensions and the health care system. It will now be discussed in the Senate.

With France’s economy stagnating, debt piling up and the risk of a financial crisis looming over the country, Lecornu’s government is under pressure to put French finances in order. It has pledged to bring down the deficit — the difference between how much the government spends and how much it brings in — to 5% of the gross domestic product next year.

Budget Minister David Amiel warned on Wednesday that, after the amendments, the version of the budget rejected that night would have brought the deficit to 5.9%.

With Lecornu lacking a majority in the lower chamber, the rejection was widely expected and increases the chances that the government will try to force the text through. As the April 2027 presidential election approaches, the government has repeatedly insisted that it aims to adopt the budget by the end of the year — something it failed to do with the two previous budgets.

The government could either use Article 49.3 of the Constitution again, a provision that allows it to bypass a parliamentary vote but exposes it to no-confidence motions. It could also adopt the budget through executive orders, an unprecedented option in France’s recent history.

France’s blood collection service confirmed that its refrigerators were hit by cyberattacks at the same time as supermarket fridges across the EU — though blood supplies were not affected.

The French Blood Establishment said Tuesday that monitoring and control systems for cold storage rooms deployed at three of its sites were affected, with temperature and defrosting thresholds raised to “very high levels.”

It was not the direct target of the cyberattacks and no blood samples or products were compromised, the EFS said. 

The incident appears linked to a fresh wave of cyberattacks on supermarket refrigerators across Europe, which forced stores to throw out spoiled food. That wave came just weeks after French supermarkets were first hit by a cyberattack that also hit refrigerators.

French media reports said refrigeration company Coolworld is the supplier to EFS. The company said in a statement that it’s aware of the incident and that it “concerns a component supplied by a third-party provider and not directly controlled by Coolworld.” It said only a “limited number” of its units were affected.

In the attacks on supermarkets, refrigerator defrost settings were manipulated so the coolers reached very high temperatures, mirroring the EFS’s experiences. The blood stored in the affected equipment, which included plasma bags for transfusions, has been “transferred or secured,” the EFS said.

French digital minister Anne Le Hénanff said in the country’s Senate today that the recent attacks on the country’s refrigerators “have directly targeted our economy and our supply chain.”

“I would even go so far as to say that, beyond that, their objective may potentially be to undermine the unity of our country and to create anxiety among the population,” she said.

Emile Marzolf contributed to this report.

Spain’s Economy Minister Carlos Cuerpo, will run the country’s Transport Ministry until the Nov. 29 election following the resignation of Óscar Puente, Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez said on Wednesday morning.

Cuerpo, who is also the country’s first deputy prime minister, “has shown huge management skills” in the current legislature, Sánchez said in an address.

Cuerpo has been a rising figure in Sánchez’s government. A technocrat who served as secretary general of the Treasury under Nadia Calviño while she was economy minister, he took over her portfolio when she was elected to lead the European Investment Bank. Sánchez later promoted him to be his first deputy.

Puente resigned on Tuesday over the Oct. 28 train crash in Toledo province that killed 69 people, calling his decision “a matter of political dignity.” It was Spain’s second deadly rail disaster this year after January’s accident in Adamuz, which killed 46 people.

“With his resignation, Óscar is contributing to Spain gaining back its confidence not only in our railway system, but also in political dignity,” Sánchez said.

Eurozone governments must put forward candidates to replace outgoing European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde by Nov. 6.

In a statement Tuesday, a spokesperson for the Eurogroup, the informal forum of eurozone finance ministers, said: “The Council of the EU has initiated the procedure for appointing a successor to the ECB President … Therefore, the President of the Eurogroup, Kyriakos Pierrakakis, has called on member states to send their nominations by Friday 6 November 2026.”

Lagarde announced last week that she would leave her post by Feb. 7, 2027, triggering a reshuffle at the top of the Frankfurt-based central bank.

Two other seats of the ECB’s executive board will also need to be filled next year, as Isabel Schnabel is joining the IMF in January and the central bank’s chief economist, Philip Lane, is set to end his term in May.

At their next gathering on Nov. 9, eurozone finance ministers will discuss the candidates and the process to fill all three open posts of the ECB executive board, an EU official told POLITICO.

However, the ultimate decision on the ECB President will be taken by the European Council, so heads of state and governments.

The two frontrunners to replace Lagarde are Spain’s Pablo Hernández de Cos and Dutchman Klaas Knot.

BRUSSELS — Refrigerators in dozens of supermarkets in at least five EU countries were out of service on Monday, local news outlets reported, in what appears to be a repeat of cyberattacks that hit French stores last month.

As of Monday afternoon, there were news reports of incidents affecting supermarkets in Belgium, Luxembourg, Sweden, Ireland, the Netherlands and Estonia. 

Several store managers told local media that refrigerator temperatures suddenly spiked to up to 50 degrees Celsius. This mirrors the French incidents last month, in which attackers appeared to remotely manipulate the fridges’ defrosting mechanisms so that they overheated.

It’s not confirmed that the attacks are connected or used the same software vulnerabilities that hit French chains, though one supermarket spokesperson said the incident is a cyberattack “similar to the one in France.”

Ken Munro, a cybersecurity researcher, said in an interview that supermarkets should have disconnected their refrigerators and the devices used to monitor and remotely manage them from the Internet. “I don’t accept any other excuse … particularly in light of the earlier [attacks in France],” he said.

Inti De Ceukelaire, another cyber researcher, also said the incident suggests supermarkets did not take the necessary steps even after the France attacks. “It seems that some of them simply did not get patched, which is quite ridiculous,” he said.

Belgian media reported on Monday morning that temperatures in supermarket refrigerators had suddenly spiked, forcing them to throw food away. A spokesperson for the Centre for Cybersecurity Belgium said the agency is “closely” following the incident, adding that the attackers are unknown and that it “may never be possible to identify them.”

John Billow, director of Sweden’s National Cyber Security Centre, told POLITICO that there are “similarities” to the French incidents and that the agency is in touch with affected organizations. A European Commission spokesperson said it’s aware of the incidents and is using the EU-Cyclone network to coordinate and share information.

Following France

French supermarkets were hit with a wave of similar incidents in mid-October, when attackers targeted refrigerators by Danfoss, a Danish manufacturer of store fridges. Danfoss did not immediately respond to a request for comment. The attacks in France triggered a response from the country’s prime minister and its cybersecurity agency.

Belgian supermarket chain Delhaize alerted its store managers early on Monday morning of problems with refrigerators, and Belgian broadcaster RTBF cited a store manager as saying that the problems were due to a cyberattack like those in France.

A spokesperson for the company said it is aware of an “IT incident affecting the refrigeration systems in a number of Delhaize stores.” A spokesperson for Colruyt, which operates Spar stores in Belgium, said in a statement that fridges in “around five” Spar stores have been affected. “We are currently doing everything we can to resolve the issue,” they said, adding that no Colruyt stores have been affected. 

A Carrefour spokesperson confirmed that 15 of its 700 stores have been affected, and that none of its larger “hypermarket” stores are among them. All stores remain open, they said.

Stores in Sweden have also been hit. A spokesperson for supermarket chain ICA confirmed an “incident overnight affecting a small number of ICA stores operating outside ICA’s central network” which affected its fridges and freezers. 

A Coop spokesperson said seven of its 800 stores were affected but the situation, which is “contained and under control.” In one case, a refrigeration system began to generate heat, they said. Last month in France, the attacks caused at least one fire.

Like the public authorities, cyber researchers are looking for signs of who may be responsible. The fact that the attacks have happened again is evidence to suggest a hostile nation could be behind the attacks rather than young hacker pranksters, De Ceukelaire said. Munro, however, said he believes a “copycat” is behind Monday’s attacks.

“This won’t be the end of it,” Munro added. “There will be more.”

This article has been updated.

BRUSSELS— Belgium’s King Philippe is considering Prime Minister Bart De Wever’s resignation after the premier offered to step down following failed attempts by his coalition government to agree to plug a €10 billion budget gap.

In an 11th-hour attempt to reach a deal for next year’s budget, top officials from De Wever’s five-party government gathered over the weekend, but left without an agreement early Monday morning. Tuesday was widely seen as the unofficial deadline to strike a deal, as the budget still has to pass through parliament before the end of the year.

As part of the talks, De Wever wanted to show financial markets that Belgium is on track to meet its European obligations. Belgium had a deficit of 5.2 % of GDP in 2025, which is expected to rise further next year.

After De Wever offered his resignation Monday morning, the palace said the king was “postponing his decision” and “will begin consultations tomorrow with the party leaders of the various coalition partners.” It added that the king “is appealing to everyone’s sense of responsibility and urges all stakeholders to prioritize the general interest and a spirit of compromise.”

The prime minister is expected to meet the king again on Friday.

De Wever had ruled out starting the new year with a temporary budget, which would let the government continue with the same budget as last year’s.

Budget talks have been ongoing for weeks, with tensions emerging mostly between the Flemish socialists of Forward and the Francophone center-right Reformist Movement.

The former asked for more contributions from the highest incomes, through taxes, while the latter ruled that out and pushed back against a wider reform of value-added tax.

There were still “far too many taxes on the table,” David Clarinval, deputy prime minister for the Reformist Movement, told reporters when talks broke up. He didn’t rule out discussions resuming today.

Last November, Belgium’s budget talks also went into extra time. On this occasion, De Wever did not tender his resignation, but requested an extension to budget talks from King Philippe. The king granted him an additional 50 days to reach an agreement.

If Belgium is on track for snap elections, the country could lean toward extreme parties, with both the far-right Vlaams Belang and the far-left Workers Party performing well in the polls.

This article has been updated.

BRUSSELS — NATO countries are bracing for a worst-case scenario in the U.S. midterm elections Tuesday.

European allies fear a Republican loss could spur President Donald Trump to dramatically step up his attacks on the alliance, according to five NATO diplomats, all of whom were granted anonymity to speak freely on the sensitive issue.

Their worry is that if he is restrained by Congress on domestic policy, Trump, as commander-in-chief of the U.S. military, may seek to cement his legacy on foreign affairs, where he has a freer hand. That could mean pulling thousands more troops out of Europe, three of the diplomats said.

“Usually what happens to lame duck presidents is a mix of venting frustrations and adventurism in foreign policy,” said one senior European defense official. And attacking NATO “seems to be a consistent part of [the] Trump worldview.”

White House Assistant Press Secretary Olivia Wales told POLITICO that “President Trump has done more for NATO than anyone else,” citing his successes in securing agreements by allies to raise defense spending to 5% of GDP by 2035, bolster U.S. military presence in Greenland, and efforts to end Russia’s all-out war in Ukraine.

Yet he “remains firm that our NATO allies should have been there for the United States” over the war in Iran, she said, adding: “The President will never settle for the West’s managed decline and will continue to unapologetically advance our interests at home and abroad.”

Democrats are widely expected to win the House of Representatives and potentially flip the Senate, while Trump’s personal approval ratings have fallen to his lowest on record.

The worries underscore growing transatlantic tensions after a U.S. cutoff of Starlink satellite services for Ukraine and a fresh rapprochement between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin weeks before the midterms. Further attacks would deal a fresh blow to NATO, just as Russia steps up its sabotage campaign and so-called hybrid war across Europe.

“He could be very pissed off,” said one of the NATO diplomats. If so, “he’ll be very harsh.”

Forces, money and Ukraine

At the heart of the concerns is an upcoming review of U.S. forces in Europe, expected by December. If Trump is blocked from legislating domestically, he may seek to significantly increase the scope of that pullback to rally his MAGA base, three of the diplomats said. 

The president could also decide to tie continued American presence on the continent to Europe accepting a U.S.-backed peace deal in Ukraine, said Oana Lungescu, a former NATO official and distinguished fellow at the Royal United Services Institute think tank.

“There is a risk that all these things — the U.S. force posture review, Ukraine, European security order … somehow are treated as part of a much bigger deal with Putin,” she said, “creating a very dangerous situation for security in Europe.”

Trump could also move to cut U.S. contributions to the alliance’s common funding, limit the NATO-backed PURL arms-buying scheme for Ukraine, as well as deepen ties still further with Russia, the diplomats said.

A major electoral defeat for the Republicans could also spell big changes at the Pentagon, which would have knock-on effects for any plans currently being hatched in the building.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has become a deeply unpopular figure in Congress, given his refusal to provide regular briefings about budgets and operations to lawmakers, especially Democrats.

That unpopularity has led to speculation that Hegseth could be out after an electoral blowout for Trump, partially because a Democrat-led Congress would slap Hegseth with probes into his firing of dozens of generals and admirals with no cause, and the faltering war with Iran. Those hearings and investigations would hamstring Hegseth and his team, and could prove embarrassing for the administration.

If Hegseth does move on, there would be a transition period in the Pentagon which could push any decisions about moving U.S. troops out of Europe back by weeks or months.

In theory, a Democrat majority in the House and Senate would restrain Trump’s maneuverability even on foreign and defense issues, even if U.S. law currently imposes a minimum limit of 76,000 on troop presence in Europe. 

But “it is doubtful that at least the troop floors would stand up to legal scrutiny and in any case Trump has been very willing to ignore the courts,” said Jennifer Kavanagh, a senior fellow at the Defense Priorities think tank. “The Trump administration has regularly ignored funding guidance from Congress, spending money on activities the legislative branch has not authorized.”

If Trump decides to impose a more sprawling drawdown, Europe will have “the most trouble” replacing assets including electronic warfare capabilities, air defense systems, intelligence and reconnaissance support, aerial refueling, and some types of logistics, she said.

Other allies are more skeptical Trump would hammer NATO. “We have had speculations all the time about Trump … coming out of the NATO; this has not happened so far,” Montenegrin Defense Minister Dragan Krapović told POLITICO. “Congress is the one making the decision, the final decision about less troops in Europe.”

But “to make assumptions with a high probability of success needs an object of study that makes rational decisions,” said a sixth NATO diplomat. “I don’t think we are there with the current POTUS.”

NATO and the U.S. Department of Defense did not respond to requests for comment by POLITICO.

MONTREAL, Canada — The European Union and Canada have agreed to build the closest possible relationship. Over the next six months, they will have to define what that means — and whether Canada can become the EU’s first, and perhaps only, associate member.

A summit in Montreal last week highlighted the urgency behind the budding relationship. Both sides say their partnership is positive and not directed against any country. But it is also driven by mutual need: to shore up supply chains, pool expertise and reduce reliance on the United States and China.

Mark Carney told POLITICO in an interview straight after the summit that the two sides should not be tailoring their partnership to cope with the potential reactions of other powers. “We’re not adjusting [based on] what the U.S. might think, what China might think, what … Russia might think,” he said. The goal, the Canadian prime minister explained, is to help both sides “withstand shocks” and prevent rivals from exploiting critical dependencies.

The test of that plan comes in six months, when the European Commission will meet with the Canadian government to see what progress has been made. One diplomat involved in the talks, granted anonymity to speak freely, said the meeting, which will be held in March before next year’s EU-Canada summit in Brussels, should make clear how far the relationship can develop and whether Ottawa is really on track for associate membership.

In the months ahead, there will be plenty of issues that could distract EU leaders. Governments must negotiate the bloc’s next seven-year budget, amid deep divisions over its size and spending priorities. Plus, a series of elections in some of the EU’s biggest countries, including Spain, France, Italy and Poland, will make concentrating on Canada a tall order.

Deal first, definition later

The joint declaration signed in Montreal commits both sides to defining the concept of “associate membership” by their 2027 summit. In the meantime, they have a slate of agreements and work plans to put into practice.

That includes a digital trade agreement and a competition deal signed in Montreal, plus Canada’s participation in the EU’s high-performance computing partnership. They also agreed on a new framework for cooperation between EU border force Frontex and the Canada Border Services Agency. Ottawa said it intends to join the EU’s Ukraine Support Loan facility.

The declaration sets out further work on critical raw materials and energy, including a feasibility study into long-term liquefied natural gas exports to Europe and exploring ways to jointly stockpile strategic resources. It also calls for cooperation on subsea cables, artificial intelligence and research, closer financial links, Arctic security, and disaster response. Canada and the EU will begin talks on deeper Canadian participation in Erasmus+, the EU’s education and youth program.

The summit also saw the launch of the Alliance for the Future, a broader partnership plan that could eventually include Japan, South Korea and Australia. It aims to build resilient supply chains and coordinate on economic security, so partner nations do not inadvertently harm one another with trade measures as they respond to Chinese overcapacity and U.S. tariffs.

But that could be easier said than done, with both Europe and Canada keen to avoid breaching World Trade Organization rules with their arrangements.

That concern is already visible in the debate over “Buy Canadian” and the EU’s proposed “Made in Europe” rules, both of which seek to favor homegrown suppliers. Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said in Montreal that Brussels intends to ensure Canada is not disadvantaged by the EU’s Industrial Accelerator Act — proposed legislation encouraging European businesses to go greener through subsidies and payment schemes. The ball is now in Carney’s court to offer similar assurances to European businesses under Buy Canadian.

Semantics breakdown

The summit’s biggest political snag came down to two words.

Von der Leyen opened the door to Canada becoming the EU’s first “associate member” in her State of the Union speech in September. But Germany blocked the term from being included in the joint declaration, saying the concept is vague and undefined. Other EU capitals said they also wanted to know what the arrangement would entail before fully committing to it.

The wrangle over the label overshadowed the substance of the summit and visibly frustrated both Carney and the European contingent. Asked about Germany’s objections, Carney told POLITICO it was “a very internal European issue.”

The dispute highlights Ottawa’s challenge: even if the Canadian government and the Commission agree on a plan, any formal arrangement must navigate 27 EU governments with their own concerns, pet industries and foibles.

The real reason for Berlin’s opposition remains unclear, with one EU diplomat describing the kerfuffle as an “embarrassment.”

One theory among senior EU officials and diplomats is that Germany was smarting because it wanted the term to be used for Ukraine earlier this year — only for other EU countries and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy himself to reject the idea.

The Le Pen test

The EU-Canada partnership is meant to rest on shared, centrist values. But what happens if political shifts in the EU’s two largest countries change what underpins the friendship?

The French presidential election in April could bring Marine Le Pen to power, while the Alternative for Germany has made gains in successive regional elections.

Carney told POLITICO he would work with whichever leaders voters choose, while drawing a line between cooperation and agreement. “My responsibility is to work with, whether it’s provincial premiers or leaders of other countries, in the best interest of Canada,” he said. But he added that “working with and having agreement on are two different things.”

Carney said democratic outcomes could change Europe’s priorities, but argued that cooperation could still deepen.

The six-month stocktake will show whether that confidence holds.